TN, just my opinion, we are not in a stagflation cycle as yet. Usually stagflation is accompanied by unemployment, inflation, slow growth economically, and a few other lessor factors.
Looking at the U-6 unemployment rate, which is a truer picture then the U-3, July came in at 6.7% which is about average since July 2022. Growth for Q2 was 2.4%. Q2 2022 was -1%.
What we are seeing today is not so much inflation but a devaluing of the US Currency. This eroding is reflective in spot prices of PM's. We will see gold topping the $2,100- ceiling and silver topping the $40- ceiling by the end of the year.
What is coming by the end of the month is BRICS starting and gaining steam through the remainder of the year. Wheat and rice will skyrocket due to a poor harvest in Asia and the seventh largest grower of wheat in the world, Ukraine being blocked by the Russians.
Brent crude has taken a $3- dip per barrel since the beginning of the month however, that only happened after Biden made an announcement he might tap the anemic Strategic Oil Reserves yet again. It doesn't matter, BRICS is coming into play on the 22nd of this month and if crude prices do not rise, OPEC will cut production yet again. I suspect we will see higher prices maybe breaking the $100- a barrel ceiling by November.
Then we have war not on the horizon anymore but just a pistol shot away. Again, China and Russia are holding a continuous naval exercise along the Pacific ocean. Weren't they just outside the Aleutians? They are sending a message and the average Joe & Jane out there are clueless to the messages they are sending. Who wants to bet that the next joint naval exercise will be off the California cost.
On this tangent, I still think NATO will be rolling into Ukraine by the end of the year for what ever false flag or real event happens. I also believe that China is on the verge of invading Taiwan. Oh Lord, what would a two front war bring to the globe? What if Iran joins the fight too. Europe, Asia, and the middle east would be killing fields. The Davos Crowd would love that vacuum to bring in the Great Reset. The White House would love it too, as the 2024 Presidential season approaches.
Sorry for my rambling TN. I totally agree with you that is is amazing that more people are not waking up and smelling the coffee as the pot rattles along.