I believed for a long time that we will lose the interwiz when the next big event happens. Whether the interwiz goes dark due to our or a foreign government, someone will flip the switch to the off position. This will be done to control the narrative.
China learned their lesson during the Hong Kong drama. The USofA learned their lesson just recently from the Afghanistan drama. Television will probably work but broadcasts will be heavily censored thanks to the additions to the Patriots Act since its inception.
With that written, I was reading
Early Warning this morning put out by Sam Culper's group over at
Forward Observer and this copy & paste I felt worth showing here.
One of the biggest takeaways from our reporting on Multi-Domain Operations is that during a crisis or armed conflict with China, Americans can expect the information and communication environments to be degraded due to cyber attacks, anti-satellite weapons, and possibly some old technology used in new ways.
This consideration has some Navy personnel practicing celestial navigation and familiarizing themselves with a map and sextant. It has the Army, Marine Corps, and Air Force practicing counter-electronic warfare to protect information and communications networks. It also has the military looking for a fall back for the global positioning system (GPS), which is a high priority target for Chinese weapons in a time of armed conflict. Defense officials continue attempts to harden this infrastructure because it will be so heavily targeted in the future.
This is almost certain to affect the homeland, which could include disruption to domestic cell service, the internet, electrical power, fuel and transportation, and other systems. Back in December 2020, in a memo that I cite frequently, the Army warned that adversaries would use ?conventional and unconventional? methods including cyber attacks, protests, and possibly transnational criminal organizations, to attack the homeland. And as the 2018 National Security Strategy notes, ?The homeland is no longer a sanctuary.? In the event that the United States does commit militarily to defend Taiwan, a Chinese priority is slowing the U.S. response, which likely means disrupting mobilization and deployment of U.S. forces. That likely includes the disruption of continental U.S. (CONUS) bases and facilities.
With the most recent Chinese saber rattling over Taiwan, which could one day turn into the above scenarios, I want to highlight the continued development of communications resiliency among Far Left radical and revolutionary groups.
In previous years, we?ve documented Far Left groups using encrypted chat apps, but also moving away from smartphones to VHF/UHF radios and other devices. In some of the more recent reporting, several Far Left groups are establishing mesh networks, or decentralized systems of antennas that enable internet connectivity and voice communications over a local area. These groups are specific in their reasoning: to build resiliency during a communications blackout if the government were to cut off the internet and kill cell towers during a high profile event.
This is a trend we noticed last year during Floyd?s Rebellion, in which cell phones were often discouraged during direct action demonstrations. Because real-time communications, including the dissemination of real-time intelligence on police activity, is often a key part of larger demonstrations, some groups resorted to using VHF/UHF radios. That did little to improve communications security (COMSEC), but it did prevent them from being tracked in real-time via Stingrays or DRT boxes.
This also tracks with a growing trend of emergency preparedness for some on the Far Left. Whether the next blackout occurs at the hands of Chinese hackers or the U.S. government, attempts to build communications resiliency is an important strategic development likely to yield fruit during future demonstrations and political violence.
On a personal note, I encourage you to investigate your own options for resiliency. How will you get information and communicate during a comms blackout? If you?re interested, we can do a subscribers-only webinar on this topic. Just reply to this email and let me know.
One last note, my friend Adrian joined the Forward Observer team this week. Adrian is a former counterintelligence agent in the Marine Corps and is now helping to track radical, revolutionary, and violent Far Left groups. He?ll be assisting in much of the Low Intensity Conflict Intelligence Summaries, now published each Friday. Your continued support means we can expand our coverage of what media outlets aren?t reporting. Thank you. ? M.S.
I will be posting an SOI shortly in the
Board for when the interwiz goes dark.
