Ebola discussion

[thatGuy]

I'm down, if you out it in the tinfoil hat section..

Erick, please explain the term Glove Box. I assume you're not talking about leaving it in the truck.

[special-k]

Glove Box:

[Erick]

The pic in previous post is a good picture of  a general glovebox.


However it is not a Class III GB since it is mobile and does not appear equiped with overpressure system where the outgoing air is purified (to protect those around the exhaust) and even the incoming air is purified ( to protect the sample)

Those who do possess these features are called Class III which is what you use in BSL 3 and 4 labs.

BSL 4 Labs is where you will find Ebola work being done.

The pic below shows an example of  Class 3  GB in a BSL 3 Lab.
The primary differences between BSL 3 and 4 are increased engineering controls in BSL 4 as well as the requirement that the operator wear protective gear such as Level A OSHA or the equivalent NFPA gear (I prefer suits based on NFPA guidelines over those based on OSHA regs but thats  a different subject)

[Erick]

Here is an interesting development:

This is exactly how such things can spread.
No reason to panic, I am just illustrating it for educational purposes:

http://news.yahoo.com/nigeria-fears-ebola-spread-east-infected-nurse-232441108.html

[JohnyMac]

Interesting.

I remember a man one night, at a restaurant in West Virginia, explaining to a group of like minded folks; that the number one thing we should all be concerned with is some form of pandemic.

Your thoughts Erick?

[Erick]

He was correct BUT some caveats:

- Ebola despite its continuing slow churn simply isn't infectious enough to become a true pandemic.
- But the perception that it, (or similar high profile diseases) ARE a pandemic might at some point cause enough economical damage to beocme a trigger of much more disruption than the disease itself could have ever caused.

[Erick]

UPDATE:

Current developments raise my concern level a bit.
THIS is not normal:
http://news.yahoo.com/top-doctor-nigerias-fifth-ebola-death-223359458.html

So many health workers infected so quickly by juts one dude.
Not normal for any strain of Ebola.

We might see an additional factor that favors this virus beyond simply the longer pre-symptom infectiousness I discussed in previous posts.

The virus is clearly distinct in the way it can perform its actual infection simply based on the epidemiology we learn.
If I were to speculate I might say one of its attachment glyco protiens may ahve mutates either for easier attachment in general or in some way that makes the ( still very difficult for the virus) airborne route a little less insurmountable from the virus' perspective.

I definitely expect this strain not to fade away and be around for a while.
Greater spread is near certain in my mind and we will eventually see some infections an ven deaths here in the US.

Will it be  areal threat form simply medical?

Possibly but not likely. more likely people panic will be much more dangerous.

[APX808]

Have you seen the infected who escaped the quarantine after some guys looted the hospital taking with them a lot of sheets stained with blood and whatnot?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/ebola-outbreak-escaped-liberian-quarantine-patients-found-as-death-toll-tops-1200-9678366.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/17/liberia-ebola-clinic_n_5685635.html

[Erick]

Yes,

this illustrates the social unrest component.
But I felt the other development was more relevant to our understanding of what is going on.

It will be interesting to see though if any of the escapees have infected anyone in the short time they were at large.

if they did we need to fundamentally re evaluate the nature of this new strain.

[Nemo]

Posted below is about 1/8 of the article linked.  Click below for the full article.   Thoughts gentlemen?  My reading of it and the website carrying it in general give me very little confidence in the credibility.  Let us hope its not credible anyway because if it is . . ..

Nemo

http://www.thetotalcollapse.com/3000-ebola-martyrs-warned-ready-to-strike-america/

3,000 “Ebola Martyrs” Warned Ready To Strike America
August 16, 2014
     
    A new report released in the Kremlin today by the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is stating that the reason(s) for President Obama’s “mysterious and unscheduled” return to the White House this weekend is due the United States facing an “apocalyptic attack” from an estimated 3,000 “Ebola Martyrs” who are already in America and warned are “ready to strike”.

    According to this report, SVR intelligence analysts became aware of the attack planned by these “Ebola Martyrs” against the US from their “monitoring” of a Islamic State (IS) [also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)] terror cell operating out of the Embassy of Saudi Arabia located in Washington D.C.

    In the past few weeks, this report continues, this IS terror cell has had “total freedom of movement” around Washington D.C. with no US intelligence service monitoring of them and have brazenly taken and posted photos of their: 1.) flag pinned to the White House fence and 2.) One of their operatives holding a letter against the backdrop of a US government building that reads:

    “Soldiers of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria will pass from here soon,” followed by a Koran verse that reads, “and Allah is perfecting His Light even though the disbelievers hate (that).”

    The underlying tweet posted with these photos further warned America: “We are in your state.  We are in your cities.  We are in your streets.”

[Burt Gummer]

Nemo, no.

Considering the logistics alone needed to move 3000! uneducated radical suicidal Islamists with a shelf life of a bit more then two weeks is mind boggling in and of it's self, even if granted green flags by all customs sources, port authorities and FAA controllers.

And since ISIS is our gov's creation anyway why and who would they be trying to fool with it? 

[gadget99]

I admit that watching and reading about developments of this outbreak has been interesting.

I am a firm believer that history illustrates that every once in a while, a set of unexpected events combine into a perfect storm. Caught by surprise the human race takes a BIG hit.

I suspect that this thing could mess up a parts of the African Continent pretty well.

What does concern me though, is that if the outbreak continues. The virus will be subject to mutation. I understand that in its current form the transmissibility is low. Up until now the outbreaks have been fast burning. Thus we had not seen generational mutation.

This outbreak is as has been pointed out, different.

Please tell me that I am wrong in my supposition.

Is it not true that the longer the outbreak continues, the grater the chance the virus will mutate? If so, is it not possible that there is a chance it may become airborne?

Just my thoughts....

Sent from my B1-710 using Tapatalk

[Twitch]

hmmmm, I would bottle up a GPS tracer version (dud) and start selling it to interested buyers as soon as possible.  I love hidden needles and finding them.

[Erick]

I really have no worries about "3000 ebola martyrs"
Not practical on different levels.

In other breaking news I learned earlier today from a MedTech who has been to West Africa that the Doctors in Nigeria FAILED to take proper precautions the first day.

That makes their infection with Ebola much less ominous for the rest of us.

[Erick]

Is it not true that the longer the outbreak continues, the grater the chance the virus will mutate? If so, is it not possible that there is a chance it may become airborne?

yes this is true.
However no matter how extreme the mutation it will still remain a  filovirus with all the limitations to its survival in air that entails

[gadget99]

Thank you for the input Erik

Sent from my B1-710 using Tapatalk

[Erick]

You are very welcome Sir.

[thatGuy]

I am going to second what Gadget said, thanks for shinning some light on this for us Erick. The idea of a Global Pandemic fuels prepper's nightmares and it is really nice to know that this probably doesn't have the mustard to become one and how to protect yourself and loved ones if it does.

[Erick]

I think I still owe someone a protection essay...
I am loathe to do it since i hate a lot of typing 

When looking at  adisease like this it's all about balance.

Does even this strain of Ebola have the ability to destroy our society from a purely medical standpoint?

Certainly not, not even with what appaers to be a strain thats a bit enhanced in its ability to infect BUT like I said elsewhere the reaction of human beings and the mass/mob psychology of it needs just the PERCEPTION of  areal threat for panic which  may result in riots, which may result in supply shortages, which will result in more panic, which will result in more riots etc etc until finally the grid is down.

That would kill many many multiples of what this virus ever would BUT something like that could be triggered by it in a worse case scenario

[gadget99]

I want to thank Erik again for the sense check on this subject.

I do have a bit of a prediction though.

As I have said before, I have learned that every now and then the human race gets kicked in the balls.

The Spanish Flu was a good example.

I firmly believe that a series of "where did that come from" type events will create what we preppers are gearing up for.

The hitch is the "when will it happen" in the equation.

I can easily see the Ebola outbreak messing up a good part of the African Continent. Add to that another BIG outbreak of war in the middle East. The thing in the Ukraine blowing up. Add to that some expansionism by China. A little dose of Korea maybe. Then the reality that the global economy is still a bit shaky.

Oh dear I could go on and on......

I am not stressing over this really.

Why? Because mine and my own are prepped.

I was getting bored anyway, Bring on the chaos....... LOL

[Erick]

Still going strong just as yours truly predicted..
NO reason to panic yet.

Illl let you guys know when its time to panic 

http://news.yahoo.com/says-ebola-outbreak-could-strike-20-000-people-102050086.html

[TrailingSpouse]

Wow - some good discussion here. 

Ebola martyrs!!!! *eek*

I'm in Kinshasa - 1300 k from the outbreak in Congo - Equateur. Not too worried. Its more likely Kinshasa will get it via West Africa as there's no roads or internal transport to speak of. 

Seems easy enough to take precautions - we are now all touching elbows rather than shaking hands and we've stopped kissing corpses.

Congo has had six previous outbreaks and now has some expertise.  Also they're getting loads of assistance from WHO, MSF and CDC etc.

BUT - as others have mentioned, there could be issues resulting from panic, economic collapse etc.  There's a rumour around in the local population that there are stocks of ZMAPP at the American Embassy, and even that all white Diplomats and NGO workers have already been issued with it.  Which would of course make us a target.

ALSO - if other countries close their airports to us and we have a medivac situation (e.g. cerebral malaria) we are screwed as treatment facilities are poor here and the last place I would want to be in an Ebola outbreak is a Congolese hospital!

[thedigininja]

Spouse, I'm mildly worried sitting where I am as we have almost as many immigrants as locals here with very little control over who or what comes in but you're pretty much smack bang in the middle of the shit storm.

[v0dka]

Just a heads up for everyone. I believe they are starting to screen for ebola in some of the major hospitals in my area.
ER nurses were asking questions like "have you been to another country or been around someone who has recently?."
They are going so far as to put stickers on patient's and family to show that they have not been at risk.
The smaller hospitals haven't started screening yet to my knowledge.

[Erick]

Thanks!. Thats good info