i agree we're overdue. I just wouldn't set your clock by their reporting. an X class CME or SME would be the proverbial 'low probability, high impact' event. I also agree the .gov wouldn't be too quick to share.
i think by the statistics are about a 1% chance of a carrington type event per year. I think the NASA paper used 12% per decade. BUT that doesn't equate to a 24% chance on the next decade, its still 12%.
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http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/for a so so predictor try Enlil - it is the best, just not perfect.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-predictioniff your really bored, give this a gander check problem 94.
https://spacemath.gsfc.nasa.gov/NOAA figures a max lead time for an earth bound CME at under 24 - 48 hours depending on the type(s),