Crude Inching Up - Just Ramble Writings This Evening On This

[JohnyMac]

MrsMac and I were discussing fuel prices at dinner this evening. She predicts that petrol will be at $10- a gallon by year end. I asked her what the current price of crude was. She did not know. Well crude has inched up north of $115- a barrel today. So just some ramblings on this subject.

Crude reached north of $124- a barrel at the beginning of March this year. So, the best way to pick petrol prices by year end is the crude oil price.

The business articles predicting $200- a barrel for crude by yearend have quieted down a bit from mid March when the predictions came out. I am hearing nothing of late about crude oil predictions however, JP Morgan predicts that petrol will hit an average of $6- a gallon by mid summer. If this is the case, it means that crude will be about $140- a barrel to support this price.

To make MrsMac's prediction of petrol of $10- a gallon, crude will have to be around $230 a barrel. 

Now can you imagine what diesel will be mid summer if crude hits $140- a barrel? Probably around $8- a gallon - OUCH! Now that is the average across the country. Can you imagine what diesel will be in California, Oregon, or Washington? Can you imagine what food costs will be coming from the west coast by mid summer?

Get use to "hyperinflation" folks.   

Again, just ramblings this evening.

73...

[JohnyMac]

Crude running north of $116- a barrel today and DJIA is down 340 points or so.

Looking at the DJIA, I still think that we will see south of 29,000 by July 4th. Since January's high of 36,400 we have had four months of negative numbers. June will be the fifth month.

Then in July, we will see a leveling off period with the market rebounding slowly in Aug, Sept, Oct, leading up to Nov and the mid-terms. It will not be 36,000 points though.    Maybe 32-33,000 level.

If we are not under martial law mind you by Dec. 2022, I suggest it will be an opportunity to take profits from the DJIA. 2023 will be hell on earth. Dec & Jan, sell, sell, sell.

Profits taken in Dec/Jan need to be in cash, I Bonds, PM's, and commodities. Just my thoughts and what I am planning on doing. What I do is not in anyway what you should do 

[Nemo]

Joe pissed off the Saudis but pushing them down to a second world country status.  That is the biggest reason for the oil issues out there.

This does no surprise me at all.  They make take up the supply issues but do not look for much in the price reduction area.

Nemo


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/saudi-arabia-ready-pump-more-oil-russian-output-sinks

Oil
Updated on 7 hours ago
Oil falls as Saudi Arabia ready to pump more if Russian output sinks: report
The price of oil traded lower Thursday morning, falling by more than 2%, as investors cashed in on a recent rally
By Ken Martin FOXBusiness

Saudi Arabia is reportedly prepared to increase oil production if Russia's output falls substantially under the new sanctions imposed by the European Union.

That's according to people familiar with discussions and reported by the Financial Times.

The price of oil traded lower Thursday morning, falling by more than 2%.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped to around $112 a barrel, after a 0.5% rise on Wednesday.

Brent crude was down to $113 a barrel, after rising 0.6% the previous day.
Oil well

An oil rig drilling a well at sunrise, owned by Parsley Energy Inc. near Midland, Texas. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder

Up until now, Saudi Arabia has resisted calls by the White House to boost production, even though the price of oil has risen to its highest point in a decade.

The kingdom has said it needed to keep spare capacity in reserve.

Fears of an oil shortage increased after the EU launched another round of sanctions against Moscow, including a ban on importing seaborne cargo of Russian oil.

A deal with the U.K. that bars insurance of ships carrying the oil later this year could reportedly curtail Moscow?s ability to redirect oil to other regions.

The agreement to increase production could be announced at Thursday's OPEC+ meeting, according to the report.

Production increases that were scheduled for September would be moved up to July and August.

 While there have been tensions between the U.S. and Saudi leaders, recent visits by a high level U.S. delegation helped to improve the relationship.

[Nemo]

I just don't know what to make of this.  Recession reducing demand so much or OPEC wanting to jerk around Biden by raising prices in Sept for election anticipation.

Nemo

from a bit ago.

https://oilprice.com/

WTI Crude ?            88.97    -1.69    -1.86%
Brent Crude ?          94.54    -2.24    -2.31%
Murban Crude ?       95.94    -1.46    -1.50%

[Nemo]

Found a new link part of an old link with more info, bit more concise.

Nemo

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#prices

[Nemo]

And Putin making noise is making oil inch up.  Helped by the Fed and inflation and biden.

Nemo

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/oil-prices-climb-after-putin-announces-partial-draft-and-as-fed-decision-looms/ar-AA124pRL

Oil prices climb after Putin announces partial draft and as Fed decision looms
Barbara Kollmeyer - 2h ago

FUTURES MOVERS

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial draft of citizens, in a sign that the seven-month war in Ukraine may be escalating the pressure on global commodity supplies.

Geopolitics appeared to overshadow economics, at least for now, with an interest-rate hike announcement by the Federal Reserve expected later.
Price action

West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose $1.06, or 1.3%, to $85.51 a barrel. The October contract fell $1.28, or 1.5%, to settle at $84.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday, the lowest finish since Sept. 8, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
   
November Brent crude   the global benchmark, climbed by $1.26, or 1.3%, to $91.88 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. A day earlier, Brent fell by $1.38, or 1.5%, to $90.62 a barrel, also settling at its lowest since Sept. 8.
   
Back on Nymex, October gasoline  was up 0.8% to $2.4679 a gallon, while October heating oil  gained 0.2% at $3.3799 a gallon.
   
October natural gas  rose 1.7% to $7.847 per million British thermal units.

Market drivers

Oil prices rebounded a day after hitting two-week lows after the Russian president early on Wednesday announced the ordering up of 300,000 reservists, and vowed to use all means necessary to defend territories, adding that this was ?not a bluff.?

Putin?s announcement came a day after Russian-controlled regions in eastern and southern Ukraine announced they would hold votes to become integral parts of the former Soviet Union. Moscow was warned about its plans for those referendum at the annual gathering of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

?In the best case this makes any peace deal that much more of a distant prospect, considering that Ukraine won?t give up any of these lands and Russia will certainly not cease its claim on the territory after it has been strengthened by a ?popular vote?,? said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank, in a note to clients on Wednesday.

?In the worst case, this is exactly the pretext that Putin needs for the deployment of nuclear or chemical weapons when Ukraine pushes ahead with its counteroffensive ? or at the very least to further increase such threats to the West, adding another bout of uncertainty to the geopolitical mix,? said van Geffen.

Analysts have expressed concerns that an extended conflict will only weigh further on commodity supplies, including oil and natural gas.

Meanwhile, oil traders will be watching closely for a Fed interest-rate hike of at least 75 basis points, when the central bank?s two-day meeting wraps on Wednesday. Some expect the Fed could stretch to a hike of 100 basis points.

Oil prices have struggled in recent months over concerns that the Fed?s battle to bring down high interest rates will trigger a global economic slowdown that could harm demand.

A drop in crude prices on Monday was partially blamed on the announcement by the U.S. that it would sell 10 million barrels more from the Strategic Reserves for delivery in November to help keep a lid on oil prices.

[DMCakhunter]

There must be some regional issue going on in Iowa. Last week 10% ethanol gasoline was $2.97-3.05, this morning it is $3.58-3.65. Diesel has been declining and is $4.54 this morning.

[Felix]

... and speaking of regional issues...   We are left to guess why so many regional issues are popping up across the food and energy sectors...

https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/massive-explosion-rocks-bp-oil-refinery-in-ohio/

[Nemo]

Oil generally is down about 5% on Friday but easing down in the past couple days.  With gasoline prices up for 5th straight day.

Biden-Omics I guess.

Nemo

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gasoline-prices-rise-fifth-straight-day

Oil
Published September 25, 2022 4:41am EDT
Gasoline prices rise for a fifth straight day
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Friday on fears rising interest rates could trigger a global recession
By Ken Martin FOXBusiness

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. started rising again in the past week, after declining for nearly 100 days in a row during the summer driving season.

The price on Sunday was $3.417 a gallon, according to AAA.

That makes it five straight days of increases that began on Wednesday morning, when the price ticked up to $3.381 per gallon from $3.674 the previous day.

The average price a week a go was $3.678. A year ago it was $3.188.

Gas hit a high of $5.016 on June 14.

At the time, U.S. crude was about $120 a barrel and the benchmark international price was even higher. Since then, oil prices ? which account for over half of what consumers pay at the pump ? have tumbled.

Oil prices plunged about 5% to an eight-month low on Friday as the U.S. dollar hit its strongest level in more than two decades and on fears rising interest rates will tip major economies into recession.
Graphic of gas prices

Gas prices on Sunday 9/25/2022,

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $4.58, or 5.5%, to $78.91.