Author Topic: US Q2 GDP Forecast  (Read 872 times)

Offline JohnyMac

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US Q2 GDP Forecast
« on: July 15, 2014, 11:45:08 AM »
Usually by mid-month following a past quarter the revised forecast is released. As of this writing there is no Q2 -2014 forecast has been released.

With Q1-2014 showing up at -2.9% I truly wonder what Q2 will come in at.

I recently read that in June, the average daily consumer expenditure came in at $91- a day. In Q1 it was $88- a day. As a comparison, the average daily expenditure was around $115- a day in late 2007 early 2008 before the "great recession."

Hereis a neat table showing what American's are spending their money on and by +/- a year ago.

The top five things consumers are spending more on are:

Food:       +59%
Gas/Fuel   +58
Utilities      +45
Healthcare +42
Household
Goods       +32

Bottom Five:

Dinning out +26%...-12% compared to LY
Travel         +26......-12
Consumer
Electronics  +20......-11
Clothing      +25......-5
Leisure
Activities     +28......-3

Again these are people who are spending more on daily purchases.

So what is your guess what Q2 GDP will be. Here are mine:

> First draft +1.8%
> Final draft (Released several months later VERY quietly) -.5%
 
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Offline thatGuy

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2014, 12:40:21 PM »
I am alarmed by the price of beef these days.. I'm gonna have to go vedge..


Burt Gummer

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2014, 12:59:26 PM »
 :deadHorse:

Offline JohnyMac

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2014, 01:29:44 PM »
Hey ladies and germs, now is the time to research a local farm/ranch who has beef and pigs on the hoof for sale. Get 2-3 other families together; buy the steer/pig and have it butchered and wrapped for your and the other investors freezer.

Average Hereford on the hoof 1,300 pounds. Hanging weight 800 pounds. Butcher and wrapping cost $200-. So if you buy a live Hereford at $1- a pound ($1,300-) and pay $200 to have it butchered and wrapped the cost to the 2-3 family's will be $1,500 or $500. per family. The cost per pound for the finished product will be $1.90 ($1,500 ÷ 800 lbs = $1.875).

Where can you buy processed beef for $2- a pound today?
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Offline rah45

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2014, 07:08:45 PM »
Hey ladies and germs, now is the time to research a local farm/ranch who has beef and pigs on the hoof for sale. Get 2-3 other families together; buy the steer/pig and have it butchered and wrapped for your and the other investors freezer.

Average Hereford on the hoof 1,300 pounds. Hanging weight 800 pounds. Butcher and wrapping cost $200-. So if you buy a live Hereford at $1- a pound ($1,300-) and pay $200 to have it butchered and wrapped the cost to the 2-3 family's will be $1,500 or $500. per family. The cost per pound for the finished product will be $1.90 ($1,500 ÷ 800 lbs = $1.875).

Where can you buy processed beef for $2- a pound today?

That's a good idea, but for those of us who don't have experience with this, how do you tell if the cow/meat is healthy/disease-free/quality for what you're paying, without being or hiring an expert to assess?

Offline JohnyMac

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2014, 07:44:38 PM »
If a steer/cow is chewing it's cud, standing on all four hoofs, passing gas and looks at you hoping you will give it some grain, it is fine.

DON"T buy a critter that was "put-down" before it gets to the knacker-man. Only buy the ones that will stand there chewing it's cud as the knacker-man puts the critter down.

By the way, most critters like cows/steers that are brought up on a farm for food consumption, are dumber than a bag of rocks. I lost my squeamish side years ago.

Last little tid-bit Rah, steer away from dairy cows unless you like hamburger (Lots of hamburger) and stew meat. They are not raised to eat but to milk. That is why most male calf's born from dairy cows are sold off for veal processing.

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Offline DMCakhunter

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2014, 09:08:52 PM »
All will be revealed tomorrow.

Offline Well-Prepared Witch

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2014, 06:56:05 AM »
Rah, I would also ask what the cow ate and whether it was pastured or kept in a CAFO. Grain-fed is just as tasty as grass-fed, but there are variations in taste. If grain-fed, my $0.02 is you want to make sure they were fed strictly vegetarian and no soy. (Cows are herbivores, not omnivores. A lot of big/commercial CAFOs feed animal by-products. It's not good for the cow, nor for the person eating the meat. The soy is a personal preference - I don't want all the estrogenic compounds in my meat since research is showing they can contribute to cancer and other health issues.) You do want cows that were pastured, not kept in small quarters for both ethical and taste reasons.

Start with your local farmer's market and/or local butcher. Don't be afraid to ask questions. Especially at the farmer's market people are generally really friendly and willing to share information. You may even be able to get meat there so you can try their beef before investing in a whole cow. Localharvest.org is a good spot to find your local farmer's market if you don't already know where it is.
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2014, 08:11:05 AM »
Wow Wellie, I never even thought about what you wrote. I will see though looking back on steer i have bought in on were all grass fed (spring/Summer/Fall and good old hay in the winter.

Now on occasion to encourage the cattle to move from one pasture to another a handful of "crack."

Bovine crack = Oats, cracked corn and wheat. Man they love it!
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Offline Well-Prepared Witch

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2014, 10:11:53 AM »
JM, it takes a surprising amount of effort to eat well and healthy.  It's so much easier to just buy from the grocery store, but it's so much worse for you!  I recently had a blood test for a physical and my cholesterol was below target, and my doctor said I even needed to get the healthy cholesterol up!  The last time I'd had a physical, about two or three years previous, I'd been on meds (stopped them when I ran out after changing doctors/insurance providers at that time) for high cholesterol.  The only thing I changed is where I get most of my food - farmer's markets, my CSA, local farmers, self-raised, etc.  I still eat pretty much the same stuff.

I think we may have talked about it, but if you haven't read "The Omnivore's Dilemma" by Michael Pollan, it's an EXCELLENT place to start learning about how to source healthier food.
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2014, 02:13:01 PM »
Thanks for the book recommendation  :thumbsUp:
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2014, 11:06:44 AM »
Well the prelim GDP numbers were released for Q2 and they look good at first glance of +4%. Please remember that they are prelim and will most likely come in lower when all of the dust settles not unlike Q1's original number of around 1% but ending up being -2.9%.

I will revise my guest O' mate of flat to +2% from the -.5% i originally predicted. Still pretty anemic.

Also, in Q2 U-3 unemployment went up 10 bpnts to 6.2% and jobs created was under expectations.

How is food and fuel prices doing in your neck of the woods?
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brat

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2014, 11:42:14 AM »
Fuel is down, gas is down, food is up. Gallon of milk went over $4 in the last two weeks and now costs .50 more than fuel per gallon.

Offline JohnyMac

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2014, 06:19:29 PM »
MrsMac and I just finished dinner of; Ham steak, cumber salad and baked beans. Through-out the whole meal we chatted about food prices.  :facepalm:

Her biggest complaint was the price of in-season fruit. My biggest beef was the cost of protein AKA, pork, chicken and BEEF! Still looking for a beef steer locally to butcher. My neighbors are thinking about harvesting one of their Scottish Highland cows who is 5 years old and hasn't had a calf as yet. They also made an appointment at the butcher for their three starter (feeder pigs AKA Bacon Seed) pigs they bought in the spring. The problem is that the butcher will not make scrapple this time so I will have to dig out my grandmothers recipe. When she did it I remember her boiling a pigs head or two and sitting at here kitchen table picking the meat off the head when it was cooled. 

Depending on the weather next week, it will be wood stove cutting time. The goal this year is to put away all of our winter stove wood needs vs. buying a little to augment what I cut. I hate to cut out our wood guy as he only charges us $120- a cord delivered. If I do it all we save $720- (6 cords x $120-). That's enough money to fill the freezer with protein.

Soon as the sweet corn comes in I will buy 6 or so dozen (Hopefully at a discount) and put them away for the winter. When I was small my family use to buy 10 or so dozen of sweet corn. After husking they would put in a pot of boiling water for about 40-60 seconds and then pull out and throw in a pot of ice and water. Then they would cut the kernels off the cob. My grandmother used an angel food cake tin to do this. Put the butt of the cob in whole of the center of the pan and cut away. The Angel Food cake tin caught all of the kernels and juice (milk). Then we would scoop out 16 oz and put in a plastic bag with maybe a 1/2 a tbsp of butter (closed with twists at the time) and freeze. IMO, that corn tasted better then the corn right off the cob in the summer. About 4-5 ears = 16 oz. if I remembered correctly. Thinking back I am licking my lips...Maybe I will spring for 10 dozen ears if the price is right.  ;)

My beans are looking great and I harvested enough for last nights meal. The bush and Lima beans are doing great while the pole beans are only doing OK. Hopefully I will have enough to can & freeze 60 meals worth for two people.

The apple harvest around here is going to be poor. Last year was a bumper crop but this year the trees are looking sparse. I sure would hate to buy a bushel or two when normally they are for the taking. I can only imagine what the cost of cider is going to be for my hard cider making's in the fall.

Man O' man I am starting to sound like my old Uncle Pat. He was brought up during the depression and that man could make a nickle last till the cows come home. My goal is to spend about 80% less in the grocery store (s) this winter.

Enough rambling on about food!   
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brat

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2014, 10:24:23 PM »
Quote
My biggest beef was the cost of protein AKA, pork, chicken and BEEF!

I see what you did there.....

We canned again today (like every three to four days), 7 pints shredded zucchini for bread, 5 quarts cubed for casseroles, 9 quarts of summer squash, 6 pints of pickles. Dehydrated six bags of "on sale" mixed vegetables for soups. Tomorrow is tomatoes, sweet corn and the rest of the cukes. My sweet corn is 3/4 ready, checked an ear today and going to start canning that. Looks like we'll be around 200 or so ears this year, down from last year. Never heard of using an angel food tin. Neat idea. We use a wooden Lee's corn cutter/creamer. My grandma did as well. That 7 inches of rain we got four weeks back messed with production this year. Too much at once and at the wrong time to boot. 

Like you Jmac, my pole beans didn't produce near what my bush beans and limas have. Okra is just starting their run, turnips are in and sweet potatoes come out in two weeks. Pinto beans look like they'll be in the 8-9 pound neighborhood. Blackberries are about run out, but we got just shy of 11 gallons.

Won't have to worry about wood this year. Got 4 cord split on the treeline and 3 in the shed. Another load of rounds to split, should make another 2-3 cord. I got a deal worked out with a dude that cuts trees for a living. He bucks to 16-18" and I let him dump his rounds on my property. Saves him from hauling a county away and fees. The winter and early spring storms here let me get ahead before summer. I don't get a whole lot of pretty wood, but it all burns. Best of all it's free.

Like you, we try to save grocery money during the winter with our canned goods and freezer stock.

Good luck with your cider. What kind and how big a press you use ?

Offline JohnyMac

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2014, 07:50:47 AM »
Yeah brat we too got rain early and too much. Plus the temps have not topped 80 while we have been here for a week or so. Many days have been around 72. It hasn't rained either. I guess I will have to water the garden after breakfast.

My corn is about armpit high so it is a long way from maturity. We found that the heirloom corn takes longer to mature than the GMO sweet corn. My neighbors and the local farmers corn is in tassels already.

You have a sweet deal on wood man!  :pirateThumbUp:

We don't press cider we buy it. Four, 5 gallon carboys to be exact which is use that to make hard cider. Not as happy with this years hard cider because...Well...I screwed up. Depending on the recipe my hard cider came out a bit high on the alcohol level averaging at about 10%. I like to shoot for around 6-8%. At 10% 2-3 bottles will get most people looped real fast. Starts with post 452 concerning my  hard cider

All and all it sounds like you are 3-4 weeks ahead of us here on your growing season. I am impressed with what you have accomplished.  :thumbsUp:
 
« Last Edit: August 03, 2014, 07:53:10 AM by JohnyMac »
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brat

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2014, 12:45:01 PM »
Jmac I suspect the only difference in our corn is the regional temps creating a longer growing cycle here, I get to plant earlier, so mine's ready earlier. I plant Stowell's Evergreen and Silver Queen. Interestingly, many heirlooms are open pollinated F1 (first generation) hybrids. Hybrids (cross pollinated) can be heirloom, like SQ and say Golden Bantam. In the old days after picking sweet corn the sugar would get starchy after a day or so and it was harder to get to market. The hybrids were developed to keep sweeter longer for market. SQ has been around since the 1950's and Stowell's well before that I believe. 

I believe Syngenta’s Attribute (resistant to 2,4, D) and Monsanto’s Performance (resistant to glyphosate) are the two sweet GMO (added DNA strands) "field" varieties sold in North America. They're making serious inroads to mass production. Coming to a grocery store near you.

 

Offline JohnyMac

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Re: US Q2 GDP Forecast
« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2014, 09:41:09 PM »
Heck brat you know your corn  :thumbsUp:
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