The Changing Arms and Ammunition Market

[Jackalope]

   I received word that Windham Arms up in Windham, Maine is going out of business, as of today.  Windham is a descendant of Bushmaster.  I really liked their AR's, as they were well built, and they perfrom well.  Apparently, they are going to auction off their remaining assets.

    I've also received information from a gunshow vendor, that we (as in U.S. citizens) will be experiencing a major ammunition shortage, starting the December-January time frame.  The U.S. government is purchasing all production output on a monthly basis, when the manufacturer has met the government monthly quota, then they can sell to the civilian market. 

    The rumor is that the U.S. has depleted their stocks due to shipping so much to the Ukraine.  There's also a rumor that the government is gearing up for war, but against whom?  I know our petroleum stocks are the lowest that they've been in decades.

    In any case, now is the time to top off stocks, before any shortages occur.  We might be in for a long, hard winter.

[pkveazey]

I really didn't need any more ammo but a couple of weeks ago I went into the Gun Store and bought a couple of 50 round boxes for my handguns. We all have all the ammo that we need until we need one more bullet and don't have it. I believe that at some point, ammo will just as useful as cash. I think that I'll be able to trade some items that I need.

[Jackalope]

      Yeah, ammo will likely be a better barter item than silver.  I've seen some great buys for 9mm ammo recently.  You can almost never have too much.  If it's properly stored, it will last a long time.

[JohnyMac]

Good catch Jackalope. 

Now is a very good time to buy. Prices have come down a bunch and you can find 556 in .62 gr. at .38 cents a round. I have seen some remanufactured 9mm 124 gr for .16 cents a round. You do have to watch out for shipping costs though as that is how some vendors get ya'.

[CJS06]

The ammo "shortage" is not true across manufacturers. It is due to the contract with the Lake City manufacturing plant, owned by the US but currently contractually run by Winchester.  Winchester is required to meet the needs of US then has the rights to sell off any excess manufacturing capacity. This is nothing new and comes up as a subject of concern periodically.  You may have a similar situation with Black Hills for the mk262 mod1 that is the standard ammo for SOCOM, NSW, etc.  Again this is nothing new, it happens in cycles.

Although M855A1 is not readily available to the civ market, this will effect the availability of both M855 (green tip) and M193 (55gr ball), as well as 124gr NATO 9mm.  Also M80 7.62x51 will be effected. 

Definitely worth picking up a bunch any time pricing is good, but if you are shooting other brands, calibers, etc you will not have a huge effect.  For example LC M193 will be limited, but Prvzi M193 or Magtech M193 will not.

Chris

[JohnyMac]

Thx Chris. 

[CJS06]

It is a bummer about Wyndam, but it appears that they were just unable to overcome their debt load.

Chris

[grizz]

      Yeah, ammo will likely be a better barter item than silver.  I've seen some great buys for 9mm ammo recently.  You can almost never have too much.  If it's properly stored, it will last a long time.

I'd be very careful bartering for ammo or food products, they can be messed with and turned into weapons

[Jackalope]

   An update from my original post.  Windham Weaponry is under new ownership and new management.  It's good to see they're still business.

   The ammo shortage is still coming.  If you haven't topped off your stocks, don't delay.  As I advised back in the Fall, industry insiders have been predicting an ammo shortage in the near future.  Here's a report from the owner of SGAmmo:


News from Shotshow 2024: I just got home from 4 days in Las Vegas at the shotshow, where I met with the people from the factories we work with, factory sales people, factory directors and owners, importers, etc.

The big point of discussion seemed to be shortness in supply for nitrocellulose, which is the raw material used to make gunpowder and other propellants and explosives. Based on these conversations, the issue seems to be based on 2 factors, decreased availability in the supply chain and increased demand for the manufacturing of military ordnance.

Getting into the details and a little more, a huge percentage of the nitrocellulose used to make gunpowder historically came from China and Russia, however according to my conversations with industry partners, the Chinese manufacturers who historically were the biggest suppliers at over 30% of the market share are no longer willing to ship raw nitrocellulose to the USA or NATO member countries in attempt to reduce the USA & NATO's ability to supply Ukrainian forces with artillery shells, and of course Russia who historically was the 2nd biggest supplier is out of the supply chain as well.

This decrease in supply in raw material has gunpowder manufacturers in the USA raising prices dramatically and cutting off many of the smaller ammo manufacturers. The 2nd part of this issue is the demand for military ordnance, like 155mm artillery shells that use huge quantities gunpowder propellants, and the gunpowder manufacturers switching production to this type of gunpowder with what supply of nitrocellulose they do get. The first reason is that they always put the US government's needs before those of the commercial market, and the second reason is that it is simply much more profitable to manufacturer military ordnance than it is small caliber ammunition, so they get a much more profitable price manufacturing powder for artillery shells.

In conclusion, while most of the factories seem to have gunpowder stockpiled today, this issue is expected to catch up to them no later than the summer of 2024 and possibly within a few months, and when it does it will mean the factories will be capable of producing much less small caliber ammunition to sell to the US commercial market. If demand for ammo is low to moderate, you may not see a big change, but if demand were to go way up as it does periodically, the factories will not be able to ramp up capacity to fill that demand. In my opinion, a lot could go wrong in the commercial ammo supply chain in 2024 and it would be wise to stock up sooner than later as 2024 price increases have just started to set in on just a handful of select items so far, and availability is still good which has held prices down temporarily.

At SGAmmo, we have the best selection of high quality ammunition you will find anywhere online, and at competitive prices. If you have some spare time please take a few minutes and look over the online catalog at www.SGAmmo.com where you can see all the products we have to offer. We also have free shipping on any order with over $200 worth of product, making for a more straight forward transaction without expensive surprises in checkout. You can mix and match different products to get to the $200 threshold for free shipping, so feel free to take your time and shop the website for anything you might need. We also set the bar for quality packaging in the industry, and double box all case orders free of charge to make sure your purchase arrives in the best possible condition. We want you to be satisfied with a hassle-free transaction by receiving the goods ordered as pictured and described, in good condition, quickly and efficiently. Due to the current unstable market conditions, we guarantee our newsletter pricing for 48 hours from the time it was sent or while supplies last. We thank you for your support of our family owned and operated business, please stay subscribed for future SGAmmo newsletters.

Thank you, Sam Gabbert, SGAmmo Owner

[Jackalope]

    First , Windham Weaponry has managed to survive and they?re back producing firearms.

    Ammo is supposedly going to become scarce in the near future.  According to Ammoland, China is curtailing shipments of nitrocellulose and antimony, which are used in ammunition production. Alliant, a major propellant manufacturer, ceased private sector sales a short while ago.  Noting these two major indicators, I?m going to continue to stock up on common calibers while supplies are still available and reasonably priced. Here?s the link for the Ammoland article: https://www.ammoland.com/2024/09/chinas-export-choke-hold-critical-u-s-ammunition-components-are-you-prepared/

    No need to panic, but it is prudent to make purchases while products are available and dollars are still legal tender.

[Deathstyle]

I heard black hills tore down one of its ammo producing buildings and pushed production from that building into another that produces another popular type of ammo. So now both calibers are sharing production capabilities

[Sir John Honeybucket]

"I really didn't need any more ammo..."

APOSTACY ! APOSTACY !

[Felix]

Ammo as currency is one thing in a barter economy.
But ammo stockpiled for self-defense?
How many fire-fights does it take to get dead or seriously challenge the odds of someone getting "lucky" on you?

Don't neglect socks, heirloom seeds and night/thermal vision scopes/monoculars (with system to keep them charged in prolonged "grid down")

Rambo never did prove to be a bullet magnet....  the scripts we'll have to follow might not be so "story friendly".

[CJS06]

I heard black hills tore down one of its ammo producing buildings and pushed production from that building into another that produces another popular type of ammo. So now both calibers are sharing production capabilities

The work at Black Hills is part of process to improve efficiency and expand production to provide more capability.  It has always been difficult to get Mk262 with the demand from DoD.  This  will help with that....once complete.

Chris

[JohnyMac]

Hey Chris, good to hear from you.