Looking at a EMP/Grid down scenario, the basic agreed upon time lapse between the event and you arriving at your BOL, needs to be three to five days.
The first day people are hunkered down and trying to figure out what is going on. The people who prepared are loading up what ever means of travel they have available* to them, and traveling on the road less then 12 hours post the event happening to their BOL. The prepared who have planned to shelter-in-place are organizing their group. The group is following a prepared plan** for such events.
The second day, the smart ones are figuring out what is going on and already made it to the store to buy groceries and other supplies. The people who have prepared, if they have not already left their residence for their BOL, they do so this day.
The third day, people are getting desperate to buy food and supplies. Minor robbery and nastiness begins. The prepared folks are already at their BOL or closing in quickly. Urban highways become clogged with people or vehicles (If vehicles are working) and robbery is a real probability.
The fourth day, the SHTF begins in earnest . Smart unprepared folks are now going to the stores with a armed group. Single families or small groups become targets of the less fortunate. Most prepared folks are at their BOL and starting to set up routines and man LP/OP sites. They are also monitoring radios for news and to keep track on any tardy folks.
The fifth day, it has moved from SHTF nastiness to TEOTWAWKI scenarios.
All men for themselves. Movement from urban centers to BOL locations require a plan "B". Plan B is using rail road and powerline easements for movement by foot or bicycle.*** at night.
Depending on the time of year, the next window of opportunity for folks to leave urban centers is post the
kill off of the unprepared, sick, and medically challenged folks. Probably in the three to six month period after the event. Obviously, traveling at night, staying off major roads, etc., will be a must.
A good friend of ours has planned for his family to go up the Delaware river in a boat to a preplanned landing just east of us if travel is impossible with a car. At which time he will contact me via HF radio and if I cannot go and get him and his family, he will work his way west about 20 miles to my redoubt using a preplanned travel route.
* = If petrol based vehicles are unavailable, going by foot is a challenge as you are only looking at 10 to 20 miles a day
depending on size of group (family) and health. A bicycle would be optimal as you can travel 4 to 5 X's the distance
vs. walking.
** = If you belong to a MAG group or even if it is just your family, take the time to brainstorm on differing scenarios. Have
plans (A through C) ready for each scenario. You can always adjust as necessary.
*** = A Bicycle is a great option. Heck the Vietnamese in part beat the mighty USA thanks to the bicycle. A bicycle can be
ridden at a far greater range than walking, used as a pack mule walking along side, pulling a cart, etc. They can also be
used when roads become grid-locked. I know one couple that there plan was to bug out via petrol based car BUT bring
along a bicycle for each of their family members.
Maybe this needs to be a new post. Thoughts?
I want to post here the differing levels of when to bug out vs. staying home. Are you folks interested? If So I will post what our family came up with.