Normalcy Bias Kicks In With Our Happy MAG

[JohnyMac]

We had a small gathering of our local MAG on Monday to celebrate the New Year. I made a pork roast along with lucky veggies, and all the guests brought to the dinner what they traditionally called "lucky foods" too.

Before dinner everyone was enjoying the fellowship of the gathering when one of the original staunch members of the MAG stated, "we have been at the beginning of a new year and we all have predicted doom & gloom and nothing happened."

He continued,

"I have prepped enough and we are sitting pretty. Nothing is going to happen violently where we live." Well you could hear a pin drop with his statement.

So I said, "What are you going to do if two pickups come down our 2-trac dirt township road loaded with a dozen armed men, looking to take your steers & hogs, your petrol & diesel, etc etc etc?" He replied with,

1) The chances of that happening are slim, and
2) If it does happen then I will fight them off."

I asked, "By your self?"

I changed the conversation on this subject to save the fellowship of the dinner; However, the point of this story is to point out, I am sure you have members within your MAG, that are now thinking similar thoughts. They have moved from big time MAG supporter to a normalcy bias individual.

What causes this? Maybe staying on point so long has tired them out. Maybe that we are on the precipice of major changes here in the USA, they are getting scared. Who knows.

I need to reach out to this individual on a 1:1 basis to really pick his brains on this subject. Bottom-line, if he really thinks this, it is time for the MAG to limit his ability to draw on the PERSEC of the MAG. This is a shame as his wife is very involved in the MAG and literally sat there with her mouth open during his announcement, obviously never hearing this before.

Interesting huh?

    

[Nemo]

My nickel is on the side of him catching a big bucket of not good stuff on the way home.

Nemo

[Jackalope]

It's interesting and sad.  But from what I've observed, MAG's are always changing.  In this case, it would be interesting to know what triggered the normalcy bias.  I would suspect a change in world view, precipitated by main stream media propaganda.  Folks don't realize how quickly life can change.  Part of the issue is that the U.S. has long been isolated from the realities that the rest of the world faces on a daily basis.  We don't see the death and destruction caused by regional conflicts.  I would bet your MAG member will quickly change his attitude if some of the sleeper cells are activated.

Don't give up on him yet, Johny.

[grizz]

I wonder if the MAG idea was his or hers to begin with? If hers, maybe he is pushing buttons to get out of the relationship

[JohnyMac]

Anything is possible Grizz. I do not think he is trying to get out of the relationship. It is pretty solid. All n' all it was the wife who started the prepping thing. She was totally stoked that she learned we were neighbors.

Truthfully, she is the driving force on the prepping end and he is ok with that. He does hunt but was never a gun guy. He is of the belief that if he minds his own business people will not bother him, his family, or property.

All n' all he is a good guy. Very resourceful on broken down items, a true tinkerer.

Thx Jackalope, I will not abandon him because that would affect his son and wife. It was just a slap in the face when he made his statement.

73

[Felix]

First of all, if wives are the tail, guess who often wags the dog?
Second... depressingly common display of a weaker feature of human nature... but there are workarounds (see wives/tails)
Third... calculate the relative probability of his place being first for targeting by roving bands a plan accordingly.
IF he is not first and IF he survives, it would not be unreasonable to expect a change of attitude.

Somewhere in every MAG there is an alpha that will steer the pack when chips begin coming down.   It may be the founding titular or it may reveal an unexpected.     Good planning and an keen eye to logistics in the best I hope for in my neighborhood.   Stress (as in hot lead flying, people dying) will undoubtedly alter things.   As will "refugees".
Triage, anyone?  The Golden Rule expressed from an overloaded lifeboat?

[pkveazey]

JohnyMac.... Tell your buddy that he's right. Nothing is going to happen. Then tell him to take his wife out a nice resteraunt, then stop at the grocery store, and then pick up some extra ammo on the way home. Then when he gets home, ask him if he noticed anything different from 6 months ago. Hmmmm.... Maybe things are changing and he just hasn't felt the pain yet. I have a totally different approach to MAGs. I started prepping in 2008 and pretty much have most everything I think I'll need, plus some extra stuff for my unprepared neighbors. I waited until things began to be slightly noticeable before approaching my neighbors about helping each other out when the SHTF. I gave each household that owned a firearm, a preprogrammed Handi-Talkie and a sheet with radio instructions and some prepping suggestions. I talked to each household separately and explained prepping and the many possibilities of what might happen soon. Whenever I run into one of my neighbors and something noticeable has or is occurring, I remind them that I might show up one day soon and tell them to turn their radios on. If I lived in the city, where things can go wrong in minutes, I'm pretty sure I would have MAG meetings once a month. However, we will definitely know ahead of time that trouble is heading our way and that's when I'll be reminding them to get what they need right away because the supply lines may stop at any moment. I don't see any need right now for me to keep telling them things that will keep them awake at night when I already worry about that crap for them. I really don't want to be the leader of the pack at my advanced age but I'm afraid that I'll end up being the defacto leader because my MAG members didn't really prepare well enough. With all that said, the things I told those families did ring a bell and my information and guidance was well received. While I think about prepping everyday, I don't dwell on it all the time. Also, I think that if I'm constantly talking about it to my MAG members(neighbors), it won't be long before they start thinking that I wear a tinfoil hat and shouldn't be taken seriously.

[Deathstyle]

With only having the read the initial post, that former member is incredibly ignorant given we are headed into an election year with a very violent path that the country will have to walk through. You are better off without his ignorance.

Just watch the GoPro of A HAMAS gunman strolling a Kibbutz purging the men and elderly and dragging the women back to Gaza to be violated to remind yourself of the cost of complacency

[Sir John Honeybucket]

Yes, habit is how we are conditioned to respond, often when we KNOW that response is not the best for our own survival. Criminals on the other hand, tend to put themselves first and damn anyone else who get in their way. The criminals' 'normalcy bias' gives them the initial element of surprise, because peaceful, hard working people tend to remain at peace until it is too late, not seeing a threat: Pearl Harbor comes to mind, where a hugely powerful navy, filled with well trained sailors was decimated due to the overwhelming surprise and violence of the Japanese attack.

The initial 'victories' by criminal mobs prone to violence is quite predictable, because those prone to criminality have the advantage of initial surprise and first use of violence. However, once the honest citizens are 'warmed-up and CONVINCED of the new reality of violence as "the answer" in our formerly peaceful neighborhoods, I could see a very 'granular' , pixelated application of huge force by us 'normies' to solve these problems of theft and murder.  Once blood of family and friends has been spilled, things usually go medieval and tribal very quickly, where decisions are usually too fast for deep thought and real analysis past the tactical necessity of staying alive in the face of overwhelming violence is not wise to dwell upon...   

Yes, 'all is well' until it's not.

[Searchboss]

Years ago I was invited to join an existing well-organized MAG that prepped together on a remote piece of land that one of the members owned. Most members kept travel trailers or sheds modified into ?tiny homes? on the property to live in while there. We met at the property for a weekend each month and worked on various projects that the group identified. Occasionally we would do some training with weapons or have classes on gardening, etc. Everyone kept a year?s worth of preps and food stored in a building on the property. It was a good group and a great setup. The members were not local to each other. They came from all across the state, one from another state, and most of us had to drive several hours to get to the BoL.

My wife and I were the newest members of the group of 8 families. Several had already been prepping tougher for a few years. For the most part everyone participated and got along well and was very supportive of each other. About a year after we joined, a couple of the members? attitudes toward prepping started changing. It was subtle at first, but slowly became more obvious. They were less willing to participate in work projects or training, and stopped rotating or adding to their preps on the property. Like your friend, these members seemed to have developed a normality bias and also stated that they had been prepping for years and already had enough preps and wanted to take a break from prepping for a while. This caused some stress and concern amongst the members. Eventually this trend degenerated into arguments between these members and the rest of the group.

At the last meeting we had as a MAG, one of these self-identified ?burned-out? members caused a scene, some things were said that should not have been said, trust and mutual respect between some members was lost, and the group as a whole abruptly decided to disband. A lot of this was because one of the members causing the stress was the property owner, but that was not the only reason. Most of the ex-members of this MAG still prep and stay in touch with each other although they no longer see each other or prep together, mainly due to the distances involved.

After the MAG disbanded I called each of the members to try to figure out why this happened. Strangely, the distance/travel-time to the BoL was mentioned as a factor by several people. I discovered that one of the underlying causes that were never discussed was that the members initially causing the stress were having a personal crisis at home. This involved financial problems that we were not aware of. They refused to discuss this with the MAG. There were other issues by other members as well that played into this, but I think that this was the trigger.

I agree with what Jackalope said, ?MAG's are always changing.? Ours did in a terminal way. I think you have the advantage that your people are all local to each other. An individual discussion might make all the difference. Now is not the time for people to stop or to take a break from prepping for a while! Please let us know as you find out more.

[Nemo]

Send him the link below and ask for his thoughts.

Posted elsewhere around here.

Nemo

https://nypost.com/2024/01/03/opinion/the-left-will-roil-the-us-if-donald-trump-beats-joe-biden/

[Trail Ninja]

   all good comments IMO

This is the exact wrong moment in time to Not be ready. 

Human behavior can predictably produce kindness and generosity when times are good.  But in questionable times,  such as we're in now, human behavior can turn predictably desperate.  Add to this, limited resources... we all know how this story goes.  And this doesn't even consider how organized crime would take advantage of easy pick'ns. 

No.  He knows what potentially could go wrong, and to look the other way would be irresponsible. 

I watched a video on the history of Isreal the other day, and the radical elements of Islam are alive and well.  What makes things worse, they're here and they're organized far more than the average Joe.  And that's just one more reason to Be Prepared.

https://youtu.be/Bx1JbUGPO7A?si=S6qvZQbJcMX56Etm