Flatten The Curve

[Nemo]

Nuff Said.

Nemo
source worth citing:
https://twitter.com/PghFireFighters/status/1244300999596130305

[grizz]

That can't work because people need to get goods/supplies from the stores
- which requires traveling to the stores
- which requires touching carts and items on the shelves that others have touched
- which requires touching credit cards, inserting them into machines that other contaminated card have been in, putting this cards back into your pocket
- or handling cash which is just a likely to be contaminated as everything else
- and or interacting with a cashier who has been interacting with countless other customers

The chain of contamination is endless and as far as I know the virus will survive ~17 days on many surfaces. If that is true we would need to shut down EVERYTHING for at least 17 days to allow the virus to die wherever it is at the time.

And all this panic over a flu bug that is less deadly than the regular flu

Stop drinking the koolaid!!

[Kbop]

USofA Flu fatality max estimate, for this flu season ending in May, is 59K dead. 
and This is a bad year for influenza deaths.  CFR varies between %0.1 and %1.0.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

CoViD-19 CFR - not precisely known but best estimates hovering around %1-%2.  CDC low estimate of total US fatalities is 100K the mean value is 240K.  This is for the next 12-18 months.

the big difference is in how many people will likely catch the bug.  the CFR's may be in the same ball park but the numbers infected are already very different.

ignore it if you want. 
i'll check my posted estimates around April 15th and see how close the progression matches the curve.

[Nemo]

News conference from White House tonight had Fauci and Birx putting combined modeling numbers by about mid June between 100,000k and 220,000k fatalities.

That model is based primarily on numbers showing in NY, NJ and that area having significant effect and not giving as much weight to CA, WA and those type areas.

Stay in, watch out, have plans, keep stocked, be ready.

Nemo

[gadget99]

First off. Far be for me to tell anyone how to live their life. So take my opinions as such.

The funny part is at the end of the post. So please don't take the tone of the post as condescending.

I have seen the opinions about this Pandemic flying all over the place. It has not been helpful that the official communications on the situation have also been across the spectrum also.

Many believe that this is no worse than the seasonal flu. That we would be loosing vulnerable  people to the flu this year anyway. However this argument about loosing people to Coronavirus instead of flu argument does not hold up.

This an addition too situation. With no changes like a lockdown. You will have people getting sick in addition to all of the other reasons people get sick and need medical care. In fact if huge amounts of people get sick from something like this at the same time. Then we get into a situation where due to the pressures on the medical system, people poorly from other reasons who would normally survive will die due to lack if medical capacity.

So it really does not matter what opinions there are. Facts do not care about people's opinions.

I look for empirical factual evidence to guide me in what I need to do to keep mine and my own safe. I discarded the chinese data out of suspicion as soon as I had other sources to evaluate. So while alot of people are of the opinion that this is unwarranted hysteria. I just look to what has ben and is happening in Italy and Spain. It cannot be argued that the Coronavirus is not slamming those populations. It also cannot be said that their medical systems are not modern and comprehensive.

So here in the UK this old Army Paratrooper is taking this thing serious enough. Gonna keep mine and my own safe. Now this is not saying there are not some here who are not convinced this is a significant threat.

However I have stopped offering my opinion really. It did not go down well when I encouraged those that were screaming that this Pandemic is nonsense, to by all means get together in as large a groups as possible and French kiss to their hearts content. (Really made some enemies with that comment. Whoo... glad I am staying in out of sight)

I really did make the comment to people a few times. I swear the looks on their faces were priceless.

We each risk as much as we are prepared to risk. I am unwilling to risk my family by being wrong about how bad this virus is.

Peace all

[grizz]

We each risk as much as we are prepared to risk. I am unwilling to risk my family by being wrong about how bad this virus is.

Peace all

There is a 95-98% survival rate, nothing to fret about.

That being said, yes everyone should be taking care of THEMSELVES

Currently in the US pastors have been arrested for holding mass in many states, US citizens are being threatened with jail and fines for not following the regs and list list of Constitutional laws being "stretched" or broken is endless....

If you give up liberties for security you will end up with neither!!!!

BTW, one of the arguments I keep hearing is that its worth giving up some freedoms to save lives during this flu outbreak. Thats the same argument they use for every gun law, remember???

[gadget99]

All is good Grizz.

Was just my opinion based upon what is happening here in the UK. The police here had gotten a bit heavy handed for a few days then they were ordered to back off.

It's a different society. The vast majority of the population here are voluntarily obeying the government advice. That and the local communities are really pulling together well.

[Jackalope]

There is a 95-98% survival rate, nothing to fret about.

That being said, yes everyone should be taking care of THEMSELVES

Currently in the US pastors have been arrested for holding mass in many states, US citizens are being threatened with jail and fines for not following the regs and list list of Constitutional laws being "stretched" or broken is endless....

If you give up liberties for security you will end up with neither!!!!

BTW, one of the arguments I keep hearing is that its worth giving up some freedoms to save lives during this flu outbreak. Thats the same argument they use for every gun law, remember???

    Yes, the survival rate is high, but what happens if you're in the percentage with high co-morbidities?  If you have health issues, or in an older age bracket, your chance of survival diminishes.  There are many younger folks in good health that are also being killed by this virus.

     Personally, I'm willing to temporarily give up liberties for my survival.  Security versus survival is the issue.  You can't argue or reason with a virus.  A virus doesn't give a flying f#@% about liberties, it's only concerned about finding another host to continue its replication.

     I'm so tired of people saying that this is just another version of the flu.  The death rate is much higher than the flu, and the R0 is also much higher.  Essentially, folks are playing russian roulette with this Wuhan Flu.  Folks are first taking a chance of getting the virus, and then taking a chance that the virus will kill them.  They're playing a lethal version of lotto. 

     It's called a novel virus because humanity has never been exposed to it before.  That's why it's spreading like wildfire, we have no natural immunity to it, because it's so radically different.  The biggest risk is everyone getting the virus simultaneously, which crashes the medical system, like in Italy and NYC.  This is why governments are clamping down, to slow the spread of the virus.  I'll write it again, governments are clamping down to slow the spread of the virus. 

     Personally, I'd say my risk of getting killed by the virus is much higher than getting shot by someone.  "Experts" are predicting that 60-80% of the population will get the virus.  What percentage of the population is going to get shot this year??  I'm guessing maybe .0000001%.  So the civil liberty argument regarding the virus is much stronger, due to the higher likelihood of death. 

      If folks want to take a chance on getting this Chinese virus, go for it.  But stay the f@(% away from my family and I.  I say clamp down and let it either burn out or become less lethal due to vaccinations.  I can't resolve threats to my freedoms if I'm dead.

[sledge]

There is also the issue that many of those who survive will have lung damage for the rest of their lives.  These young folks aren't even considering that.  People's lungs are not repairing after be exposed to the damage this virus does to them.  If anyone is saying that there is a high survival rate, yes there is.  But it isn't a low lung damage rate.  Think about that awhile.

[grizz]

There is a 95-98% survival rate, nothing to fret about.

That being said, yes everyone should be taking care of THEMSELVES

Currently in the US pastors have been arrested for holding mass in many states, US citizens are being threatened with jail and fines for not following the regs and list list of Constitutional laws being "stretched" or broken is endless....

If you give up liberties for security you will end up with neither!!!!

BTW, one of the arguments I keep hearing is that its worth giving up some freedoms to save lives during this flu outbreak. Thats the same argument they use for every gun law, remember???

    Yes, the survival rate is high, but what happens if you're in the percentage with high co-morbidities?  If you have health issues, or in an older age bracket, your chance of survival diminishes.  There are many younger folks in good health that are also being killed by this virus.

     Personally, I'm willing to temporarily give up liberties for my survival.  Security versus survival is the issue.  You can't argue or reason with a virus.  A virus doesn't give a flying f#@% about liberties, it's only concerned about finding another host to continue its replication.

     I'm so tired of people saying that this is just another version of the flu.  The death rate is much higher than the flu, and the R0 is also much higher.  Essentially, folks are playing russian roulette with this Wuhan Flu.  Folks are first taking a chance of getting the virus, and then taking a chance that the virus will kill them.  They're playing a lethal version of lotto. 

     It's called a novel virus because humanity has never been exposed to it before.  That's why it's spreading like wildfire, we have no natural immunity to it, because it's so radically different.  The biggest risk is everyone getting the virus simultaneously, which crashes the medical system, like in Italy and NYC.  This is why governments are clamping down, to slow the spread of the virus.  I'll write it again, governments are clamping down to slow the spread of the virus. 

     Personally, I'd say my risk of getting killed by the virus is much higher than getting shot by someone.  "Experts" are predicting that 60-80% of the population will get the virus.  What percentage of the population is going to get shot this year??  I'm guessing maybe .0000001%.  So the civil liberty argument regarding the virus is much stronger, due to the higher likelihood of death. 

      If folks want to take a chance on getting this Chinese virus, go for it.  But stay the f@(% away from my family and I.  I say clamp down and let it either burn out or become less lethal due to vaccinations.  I can't resolve threats to my freedoms if I'm dead.

The survival rate is 95-98% based on KNOWN number of infected and treated.

There are countless others that have had the virus and didnt seek treatment because to them it was just another cold or the flu. Once you factor in those people the survival rate is much better.

Reported in the news last night - 82% of the people who reportedly died in Italy from the virus actually died from other illnesses, they just happened to also have the virus.

A Dr here in the states is responsible for over 80 known virus infected people and they all have a few things in common such as obesity and diabetes.  This is important because it shows in more detail who is more likely to get infected.

60%-80% of the population probably will get this virus and 98% of them will be just fine. And as time goes on the herd immunity will grow which will protect even more people.

Do whatever you feel is right for you and yours but keep your hands OFF our civil liberties/Constitutional Rights!! The Bill of Rights does not get put on hold or end with the flu or any other disease or panic of any sort.

  I can't resolve threats to my freedoms if I'm dead.

You seem to forget that you already gave up your freedoms so you wouldn't die, and now you expect those that took them to give them back??

One other thing to remember about safety and liberties. The left is telling us after every single gun related death that if it saves just one life we need to ban or confiscate all weapons...

[Kbop]

I found this interesting.


https://www.wtxl.com/news/florida-news/map-shows-covid-19s-potential-spread-from-spring-breakers

[grizz]

Watch Laura Ingram on FOX, she has the best updates on this thing

[gadget99]

Just had an interesting thought.

There have been a variety of opinions on this Coronavirus and what it means to us.

Just wondered if the difference in views might be due to an apple and orange comparison view.

My view and arguments have been firmly centred on the stance that is being used to dictate governmental policy on the response.

My personal opinion on the shady sides of nations and political entities is firmly in favor of not trusting them as far as I can throw them arena.

I have no beef with an individuals opposing view on this. I firmly believe each person is responsible  for their own life.

Where I get worked up is when opinions prevent tangible action to safeguard a populace. To over react and take more safeguarding actions than in hindsight may appear to be to much. Is what the playbook says you need to do in a potential pandemic situation. Better to get blamed for taking to much care. Than to be tried for doing to little and finding out you are wrong.

The UK government is still not playing to the playbook that has proven effective in other countries. They as much as said that their strategy is to gain herd immunity as soon as possible. The only reason they locked things down two weeks ago is that the health system bosses revolted and let slip that the death rates will become criminally high if they don't do something to slow it down a bit.

Make no mistake. The strategy is still centred on getting 60% the population infected to achieve herd immunity. It will just take longer. It must be understood that to achieve this 40m people need to have been infected. Any deaths that result from this are written of as being an acceptable loss in the interests of achieving the end goal.

So in terms of policy based upon the "this is no worse than a bad flu season" the UK will be the proving ground. As long as the government here doesn't do a U-turn on the current strategy.

Cheers all

[grizz]

In Alaska we've had 5 deaths related to the virus.

BUT two of them were not in the state when they contracted it and died from it. So those two are actually counted twice, one in AK and the other in the state they died.

All the numbers we're being fed are BS!!!

I believe this is the tiny bits of "S" starting to hit the fan and on a world wide scale.

It could lead to "the new world order"... Look at it this way. Some states going into quarantine while others do not, so the feds jump in and say every state MUST quarantine. Open borders and international travel continues so the virus is still spreading. Then the UN jumps into the game and says they will take over to "save the world"

All this over a virus that has a 98%ish survival rate 

[Jackalope]

In Alaska we've had 5 deaths related to the virus.

BUT two of them were not in the state when they contracted it and died from it. So those two are actually counted twice, one in AK and the other in the state they died.

All the numbers we're being fed are BS!!!

I believe this is the tiny bits of "S" starting to hit the fan and on a world wide scale.

It could lead to "the new world order"... Look at it this way. Some states going into quarantine while others do not, so the feds jump in and say every state MUST quarantine. Open borders and international travel continues so the virus is still spreading. Then the UN jumps into the game and says they will take over to "save the world"

All this over a virus that has a 98%ish survival rate 

    I'm sorry but not all numbers we're being fed are BS.  And the Feds have not yet jumped in saying that every State must quarantine.  The virus is spreading because people are still doing everyday activities without isolating.  Hey, I'm guilty of not totally isolating, but we've been very careful of maintaining social distancing, and at this point, I don't foresee any further excursions for another 3-4 weeks.

     Anyways, from my research, making people isolate, and immediate full viral testing is the primary method of controlling the virus, when no vaccine is available.  It actually worked in Alaska during the Spanish Flu pandemic, so there's no reason it wouldn't work today in Alaska or anywhere else.  People need to stay in place.

     The current fatality rate is 2.9%, which is substantially higher than a typical flu.

     We have friends who have had parents die from the virus.  We also have friends which have children that are struggling to survive this Chinese virus.  So the numbers are very real to us.  You may be in a safe location, but the rest of world isn't necessarily safe.

     More than likely some members of this forum or immediate family members may succumb to the virus, even if the survival rate is 97.1%.  The economic downfall and limitations of civil liberties are secondary effects.  Let's concentrate on surviving this first viral wave, and then react to the consequences.  The second wave will crest this Fall, which may make the current wave look like a ripple.  And as it has been mentioned previously, it appears that this virus may act like malaria, which means it will periodically return until the infected host dies either from the virus itself, or resulting medical complications.  This reoccurring viral sequence may be why global governments have instituted such harsh control measures.  Hell, Duerte in the Philippines has issued an order for the police to shoot quarantine violators.  It's my understanding that such measures were also used in the U.S. during the Spanish Flu pandemic.

     We're in uncharted waters, and we must rely on each other, family members and friends in order to survive. 

[grizz]

I believe I had it last year but there is no way to test for it now and even if there was they wouldn't test me (based on two known current cases that cannot get tested in my area). I had the smell, taste, fever, sleepiness symptoms like I've never had before. It was also the first time in 20 or so years that I had been sick with more than a cold.

The survival rate is now 97% based on your figures, thats still great odds And once you figure in the actual numbers of sick and not tested, that figure is much lower.

Lets say for example, if we knew actual numbers and the survival rate is 90%, is it worth destroying countless jobs, businesses, lives, etc... and being pushed into socialism/communism from the back door? If this economic down turn is not flipped real soon thats where we will be.

Alaska's economy is HIGHLY dependent on two industries, oil and fishing/tourism. The oil industry is being hit hard because all of the employees are flown in and out. They they require a 14 day quarantine for each flight so their hours are all messed up now. Last I heard the commercial fishing will be open for non-US boats who will be able to offload/sell their catch to US processing plants. These plants hire most seasonal employees from outside the US so they must be flown in. If one person is sick and contaminates one fish, that fish will contaminate hundreds of thousands of other fish which you will find in your grocery stores soon.... The US commercial fishing orgs. are freaking out over this

The charter fishing businesses are up in arms because they are being told they won't have a season this year, many are already considering bankruptcy as an option.

If those businesses shut down than everyone of the support businesses will also start closing their doors. Its a wicked chain reaction that few ever think about

Granted our state is unique in that way but every state will be affected

[gadget99]

Hi Grizz,

I respect your views on this and do understand where you are coming from in this. I am in agreement with you in a way also.

Using only the UK as an example due to that being where I currently live. (Not been back to the states since i retired from the Army in 2004)

All of the concerns you raise would have been avoided in the UK if the Government had instituted thier Bird Flu Pandemic plans in early February. Now I know they had very robust and detailed plans for Avian Flu, due to taking part in some of the planning in the mid 2000's. By the way the plans mirrored the WHO recommended strategy.

If followed properly there would not need to be sweeping lockdown's and such.

So my complaining is around officials not doing the right things in the beginning.

I think where we differ is in how we manage the current situation. There is no good answer to this at the moment.

Of interest is that when the authorities here have gotten to heavy handed. In the last few weeks. They have publicly backtracked when people complained. So we are still sort of safe ATM.

[Kbop]

for those who are more visual learners.

http://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs

http://youtu.be/FVIGhz3uwuQ