Tri-Axle of Fire Wood

[JohnyMac]

My winter firewood has arrived. The cost of the tri-axle (Approx. 10-cords) this year was $50- more than last year. Cost this year was $725-.

Before the logging truck was off-loaded the truck driver and I had a good conversation about diesel prices, "Uncle Joe", and the economy.

He told me that as he drove through my little town this morning diesel was $6.79 a gallon. He paid earlier out by I-81, $6.75 a gallon.

He went on to share with me that he has a call into his financial advisor. When his financial advisor calls back, he is going to have all of his 401K divested of stocks. His instruction will be, "put all of my 401K in to "Fed bonds".

Now we can debate whether that is the correct direction he should take or not. However, this is the thought process of an 'average Joe'. How many other average Joe's out there are thinking and doing likewise. 

Stay tuned, you are witnessing the collapse of the old USA. Stay tuned, 

 

[Jackalope]

   At least you'll be warm this winter, even if the US of A does collapse.  I've got a pile of wood to cut up, but it won't be done until cooler weather.

[JohnyMac]

As you know Jackalope, about 60% of our 34-acres is wooded. We plan on hitting that when the other source drops off or the price for a tri-axle of logs gets ridiculous. I suspect the later will happen before the other.

[DMCakhunter]

Good score JM.
On the investments, sounds like the driver heard part of the recent story about inflation indexed US bonds.
Unfortunately, if he, like most people that are still invested in the stock market, are down anywhere from -9% to -30%, he will have a hard loss when he sells.
That will be difficult to recoup with bonds. Especially in a climbing interest rate environment.

It is difficult for people that are panicking to understand that if they are invested in the stock market and have ridden the decreases down, they should stay invested and wait to ride it back up. Right now, they only have losses on paper. Sell out and it becomes a hard loss.

[JohnyMac]

DM, I do not disagree with your assessment at all. It will be up to his financial advisor to guide him not some guy buying logs from him. 

My plan is to stay firm even if the DJIA drops to 28,000-ish which I think it will by the end of spring beginning of summer. Just my opinion, I think the market will start to creep up to today's levels of 31-32K as we approach the mid-term elections. Hopefully, if the GOP becomes the majority in both branches of the legislature, we might see the DJIA market again rebound to the 34-35K range as we lead up to the Presidential election in 2024. Okay, that is the best case scenario.

Going forward I am not bullish on the DJIA at all. I do think we will see a slight uptick as the Fed buys more stock this fall along with EU investors moving money over to the states however, I have no faith in our government nor big business as we get closer and closer to the fascist model called, Build, Back, Better or the Great Reset - What ever nomenclature you use.

Until the oil pipelines are reopened, we as a country are screwed. Heck, so is the EU for that matter.

 

[DMCakhunter]

Spot on JM.
With all of the juicing that the fed has done, low interest rates, all of the federal money thrown at the plandemic, I am sitting outside the market, waiting for all of the accommodation to be removed and levels to get back to 1-1-2020 numbers. Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

[Sir John Honeybucket]

Basic investments can follow principles, both financial and 'other' gains.  Your seasoned firewood and a way to use it is a GREAT investment, and compunds in value especially if/when things go SPLAT!



Antifragility
Antifragility is a property of systems in which they increase in capability to thrive as a result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, or failures.

Fire wood and wood stove, independent communication methods, ability to navigate without commercial infrastructure (map and compass /sextant at sea/).  Not only do they continue to work in the event of a social failure, they actually become  increasingly more valuable as most systems fail. Self sufficiency in general, follows the principle of "Antifragility". Remember, the lowly, oft neglected,  raft becomes VITAL as the ship sinks. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.


Sir John Honeybucket

[Felix]

If you don't have a copy already, this is a book I would recommend.    It provides the organic logic of support for "prepping" in an "on time, next-day-delivery" world held together by vulnerable enablers.

https://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Disorder-Incerto/dp/081297968

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Fragile/Anti-fragile

His "Black Swan" also worthwhile.