Author Topic: Crude Price Will Double  (Read 3684 times)

Online JohnyMac

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Crude Price Will Double
« on: March 04, 2022, 11:06:42 AM »
I was woken up this morning around 0545 hrs. by a warm moist nose nudging me. No, it wasn't my lovely XYL, it was W3OOF, my faithful ham radio companion.

Begrudgingly, I rolled out of my nice warm bed and walked to the outside door to let W3OOF out. Then wandered over to fill her bowl and fill the water bowl. By that time, I heard a happy "woof".

Once W3OOF was in and devouring her gourmet breakfast, I wandered over to the Davis weather station to see what the temp was. Outside it was a balmy 6-degrees and 64-degrees inside. By this time my four-legged buddy had finished her breakfast and was dogging my heels as I went to the wood stove.

Well, we had a nice bed of coals so W3OOF and I loaded up the wood stove. Left the door ajar and shuffled back to my nice warm bed. The radio alarm was on to my local Christian station, and I laid there till the 0700 hrs. news cast came on.

Rolled out of bed, put on my wool shirt I use as a robe and walked out to the wood stove and closed the door to the stove. Made coffee, and fed the outside cats, Freckles and Gabriel. With a nice hot cup of coffee wondered over to my La-z-boy, picked up my Bible and turned to Deuteronomy. I have been slowly working my way through the Old Testament of late.

MrsMac rolled into the kitchen around 0745 hrs. and fed the inside cats, grabbed a cup of coffee, and sat down at the kitchen table. Picked up her Bible and started to read whatever. I do not write that flippantly just a fact as she jumps around the bible each day. She never starts and ends a book.

Picked up my phone and read messages from my local MAG (Mutual Assistance Group). Most of the messages was about the burning nuclear electric plan in Ukraine.

Grabbed the computer and started my early morning reading, auditing Unchainedpreppers (UP), and start my morning writing to be posted here at UP and other blogs I add too.

Looked at the clock and it was 0945 hrs. so I started to look at the commodity and investment markets around the world. Let's see...

> Crude was $111- a barrel,
> Gold was $1,958- an ounce
> DJIA was down 450-points,
> Wheat has gone from $366- to $419- a CFD
> Fertilizer has grown from 300% over LY to 309% over LY
> Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

I asked my neighbor yesterday to call to have our diesel and petrol reserves topped off. Monday I am going to call my local logger and order another tri-axle of hard wood logs.

Today, I am going to order half a steer. I noticed yesterday that I had room in my beef freezer, and we all know a full freezer is more efficient than a half a freezer...Right? The local hardware store is having a sale on chainsaw chain. Time to top off the shelf in the shed. What the heck, I will buy additional bar oil and 50:1 oil too.

Tomorrow, I am going to do a inventory on all food and other supplies. I am going to recheck the medicine tote to make sure we are up on basic OTC items. 

Next week, we will be focusing on shoring up our beans and band-aides inventory. This includes buying 6-months of chicken feed, dog food, and cat food. Bullets will be taking a back seat at this time.
 
One of the articles I read this morning was from J.P. Morgan who predicts $185- a barrel for crude by the end of the year. I think it will be closer to the middle of the year.

In closing, the globe runs on oil. Oil is the fuel of all the economies whether you be Communist, Socialist, Capitalist, Fascist (World Economic Forum), we are running to the cliff called world depression like a bunch of lemmings.

If one cannot see the writing on the wall and use the time that the good Lord gave you to prepare, you and your family are in for a rude awakening.

73 & God Bless
JohnyMac



« Last Edit: March 04, 2022, 11:44:20 AM by JohnyMac »
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Offline grizz

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2022, 02:28:00 PM »
I was surprised a few years ago to learn that a full freezer is NOT effeciant at all because it prevent circulation and causes freezer burn. Your food will freeze because extreemly cold air is being circulated around the food. If you block that circullation too much it will cause the outer most food to get warm and start to thaw, condensation will form and then freeze causing freezer burnt food.

I try to keep mine about 3/4 full. When it gets low I add water bottles to take up some space. The newer freezers are probably more effeciant but mine were free so I make the best of them  ;D

BTW, gas up here is floating around $3.82-$4.12
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Offline grizz

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2022, 04:49:30 PM »
oil closed today @ $115.68/barrel
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Online JohnyMac

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2022, 07:24:20 PM »
I just paid $4.19 a gallon for 87-octaine today. What cost me $50- last week to fill the tank, it took $60- today.

Ordered my 1/2 prime steer. The half steer was 400 #. It will hang for 3-weeks to let the tenderizing enzymes do their work.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2022, 07:28:54 PM by JohnyMac »
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2022, 12:39:54 AM »
oil closed today @ $115.68/barrel

Which one?  West Texas Intermediate (WTI),  Brent Crude, OPEC Reference Basket, Dubai Crude, Bonny Light and Urals are just six of many, about 200.

WTI and Brent crude are the generally recognized primary price references.

And answering my own question, the referenced close was for WTI.

Nemo 
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Offline grizz

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2022, 01:02:56 PM »
Gas at the pump jumped up to $4.39 as of today, much higher in the northern part of the state
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Offline Jackalope

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2022, 05:18:24 PM »
I've seen forecasts for $7.00/gallon of gas within the next two weeks, and $10.00/gallon by summer.  That should have an interesting effect on the economy.  Shipping costs are going to skyrocket, and that'll have a domino effect on the economy.  This might be an intense summer. I'm glad that I have an electric bike that can be recharged with our solar system, but I won't be able to leave it anywhere.

Offline grizz

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2022, 05:40:35 PM »
It will be an interesting summer, thats a fact!!
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Online JohnyMac

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2022, 10:04:59 PM »
Tonight, Brent Oil $130- a barrel.
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2022, 09:40:04 AM »
Look for $200.  Figure 42 gallons in a barrel makes starting prices for gas right under $5 per.  Taxes, refinery costs, transportation, add another $1.10.  So guess where we are.  Better go solar.  (note sarcasm)

Nemo

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil-traders-200-per-barrel-report
« Last Edit: March 07, 2022, 06:00:58 PM by Nemo »
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Online JohnyMac

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2022, 10:50:35 AM »
At 1030 hrs. eastern today,

Crude $117 a barrel up 5% since March 4th
Gold   $1,989 an oz.  +2%
DJIA    -424 pnts       -1%
Wheat $430 a CFD     +3%

These numbers are over three days. Three days over a weekend.  :popcorn:
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2022, 06:00:21 PM »
What crude are you seeing?   From what I see, I think its WTI.

As of now.

Quote
WTI Crude ?      119.4    +3.72    +3.22%
Brent Crude ?    124.4    +6.27    +5.31%

Those 2 are the most common quoted numbers to reflect oil prices.

Nemo



other relevant numbers on oil types.
Quote
Louisiana Light ?    118.8    +8.08    +7.30%
Bonny Light ?        115.8    +1.09    +0.95%
Opec Basket ?       113.2    -3.91    -3.34%
Mars US ?             119.0    +3.72    +3.23%
Gasoline ?             3.572    +0.028    +0.79%



https://oilprice.com/
« Last Edit: March 07, 2022, 06:07:14 PM by Nemo »
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Offline Nemo

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2022, 09:39:53 AM »
Good gas price calculator based on Brent Crude barrel price.   $129 comes back at $4.06, plus taxes and such.

And today, opening prices.

Nemo

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2014/06/gasoline-price-calculator


Quote
WTI Crude ?    124.5    +5.14    +4.30%
Brent Crude ?    128.9    +5.71    +4.63%
Natural Gas ?    4.566    -0.267    -5.52%
Heating Oil ?    4.300    +0.378    +9.65%



Louisiana Light ?    118.8    +8.08    +7.30%
Bonny Light ?    125.2    +9.38    +8.10%
Opec Basket ?    113.2    -3.91    -3.34%
Mars US ?    119.0    +3.72    +3.23%
« Last Edit: March 08, 2022, 09:42:01 AM by Nemo »
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Offline Nemo

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2022, 06:39:43 PM »
Seems Brent Crude took a bit of nosedive.

Nemo

quotes are
11 minutes
37 minutes
old as of this post.


https://oilprice.com/
Quote
WTI Crude ?    110.4    +1.72    +1.58%
Brent Crude ?    111.1    -16.84    -13.16%

Also of interest.  OPEC pushed to increase output.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Crash-By-11-As-UAE-Calls-On-OPEC-To-Open-The-Taps.html

Quote
Oil Prices Crash By 11% As UAE Calls On OPEC To Open The Taps
By Julianne Geiger - Mar 09, 2022, 12:00 PM CST

    UAE Ambassador to Washington says his country favours production increases and will encourage OPEC to consider higher production levels.
    The UAE marks the first OPEC+ member to call for more production.
    Brent crude has dropped more than $15 per barrel as traders have begun to take profits.

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In a complete oil industry turnaround, The UAE?s ambassador to Washington has said in a statement to the press that they ?favour production increases and will be encouraging Opec to consider higher production levels.?

Yousef al-Otaiba?s statement, carried by the FT, comes as both the UAE and Saudi Arabia?two of the very few, if not the only, OPEC members that are believed to have spare capacity?have ducked calls from President Joe Biden to discuss the crisis that is brewing the oil markets after Russia invaded Ukraine, sending oil prices sky high.

OPEC managed to lift its production by 560,000 bpd in February, according to a new S&P Platts survey, but President Biden has repeatedly asked OPEC to increase its production to ease prices for the American consumer.

While the UAE and Saudi Arabia are the most likely candidates for having spare capacity that could be turned on on short notice, they are already producing to quota. Producing more would be a violation of the OPEC agreement?and more importantly, the OPEC+ agreement that it made with other countries, including Russia.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE is likely to do anything to upset this hard-fought alliance. But that doesn?t mean that they would be opposed to getting the rest of the group on board; not because President Biden attempted to ask again, but because oil prices are calling for it.

The hurdle, however, will be getting Russia?the largest non-OPEC member in the alliance?on board with this plan.

?The UAE has been a reliable and responsible supplier of energy to global markets for more than 50 years and believes that stability in energy markets is critical to the global economy,? al-Otaiba added.

The UAE marks the first OPEC+ member to call for more production.

In the meantime, Brent prices have crashed more than $15 per barrel as Ukraine's Zelenskiy says he's prepared for certain 'compromises'.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2022, 06:44:41 PM by Nemo »
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

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Offline Felix

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2022, 08:13:16 PM »
_True_ "Reality", (the forces which display "reality" in open market price discovery) will not comport one for one with daily news.   Don't get all discombobulated if they don't.
Like Covid, we find ourselves seated in a stadium, watching opposing teams try to move the ball this way or that.   We can cheer, boo or hiss but the Refs probably couldn't care less.
 Meanwhile, like it or not, the opposing teams _will_ have to face their statistical probabilities just as ours will.  And given enough time, certainty of score will be counted..
Once again.  We must take a deep breath and become very solid with taking the "long view".    As lifeboats and monastery monks go, our path claims more "wins" than "losses".  (history our scorekeeper)
I look forward to tomorrow.
The same sun that rose on Julius Caesar and Jesus Christ and Dietrich Bonhoeffer and Joe Biden will rise on all of us.   Calling it the "morning", rejoice thine blessings and commit to sharing those in a manner you might or might not have yet envisioned.

Online JohnyMac

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2022, 08:26:33 PM »
Amen Felix.  :cheers:
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2022, 04:20:35 PM »
Droppage.

Nemo

https://oil-price.net/

Quote
Crude Oil and Commodity Prices
March, Thursday 10 2022 - 15:17:12
WTI Crude Oil
$108.70    ▼-15.00         -13.80%
2022.03.09 end-of-day
         
Brent Crude Oil
$111.14    ▼-16.84         -15.15%
2022.03.09 end-of-day
         
Commodities
Crude Oil    108.70    -13.80%
Natural Gas    4.53    -
Gasoline    3.29    -11.80%
Heating Oil    3.46    -28.09%
Gold    1985.90    -2.73%
Silver    25.76    -4.39%
Copper    4.56    -2.99%
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Online JohnyMac

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2022, 05:29:27 PM »
Markets go up and down. Just like you get a 5% raise but inflation is 7.9%. You are still losing by 2.9%.
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2022, 08:21:08 PM »
We are talking oil, so there is the possibility they will lube us up prior.

Nemo
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Offline grizz

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2022, 09:24:25 PM »
I'm ready for higher gas prices  :pirateThumbUp:

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Offline Nemo

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Re: Crude Price Will Double
« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2022, 09:21:16 PM »
With the dip last week the better grades are back up to the $105-$110 area.

Nemo

https://oilprice.com/

Quote
WTI Crude ?    104.7    +1.72    +1.67%
Brent Crude ?    107.9    +1.29    +1.21%
Natural Gas ?    4.863    -0.127    -2.55%
Heating Oil ?    3.598    +0.111    +3.17%

Louisiana Light ?    105.1    +7.62    +7.82%
Bonny Light ?    109.2    +0.26    +0.24%   
Opec Basket ?    105.0    +0.90    +0.86%
Mars US ?    102.3    +1.62    +1.61%
If you need a second magazine, its time to call in air support.

God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.