"For the Want of A Nail" - Ben Franklin

[JohnyMac]

For want of a nail the shoe was lost,
for want of a shoe the horse was lost;
and for want of a horse the rider was lost;
being overtaken and slain by the enemy,
all for want of care about a horse-shoe nail.
-Benjamin Franklin

I was swapping comments via email on the economic whoa's of the United States over at a MAG I associate with. Looking at Franklin's proverbial rhyme, I suggest that the "want of a nail" in US's case is, petroleum.

Just looking at the food industry (About 5% of GDP) as a microcosm of our GDP; it takes petroleum from seed to the grocery store for most of us to eat.

Fertilizer to grow the food>Diesel to harvest the food>Diesel to take to railroad yard>Diesel to drive the train to the processor>Electric to process the food>diesel to drive it from the processor to the grocery store>petrol for you to drive to the store to pick up. 

Now that is just one industry albeit, a very important industry.

I predicated here this past February that there would be a correction in the DJIA down to 28,000. I wrote even earlier, we would see a 20% correction however, I predicted this would happen by mid summer. Based on the current economic trend, I am changing that prediction to earlier - By the end of May.

Next week around May 12th, the April CPI will be released and I predict it will be around 10% annualized. My reasoning is fuel prices. Then the April GDP will be released 2-weeks later on or around May 26th. It will be a double whammy for sure. I predict it will be near 0% which will put us in the classic definition of a recession. Of course if it is similar to Q1's GDP of -1.4% it will put us very close to -10% GDP growth - over 3-quarters- which means depression  Again, it all goes back to the missing 'nail' in modern day America's horse shoe, called petroleum.

Now I am not a smart person however, even I can see what is going on. President O' Biden has said often that he envisions himself as a reincarnation of FDR and wants a "New Deal" for you. He calls it Build, Back , Better. In order to present this as a must have option, he needs to take the USA down economically. It is as clear to me as the wart with hair growing out of it, on the end of my nose.

Thoughts?

 





 

[Jackalope]

    Unfortunately, you may be correct, Johny.  The stock market corrections are accelerating.  Petroleum is the Achilles heel of modern American civilization, in conjunction with electricity.  Remove petroleum and electricity from our civilization and America would quickly become a sparsely populated third world country.

     The Biden name will be spit upon in future generations.  Everything that FJB touches gets screwed up.  Look at the Afghanistan debacle, look at the Ukraine mess, look at our southern border, and finally look at our economy.  With food shortages looming on the horizon, we must remember that we are literally nine meals from anarchy.  When wealth is redefined as to having one meal a day, citizens will no longer tolerate the games that the elites are playing with their lives.

      There is a lot of anger in America.  People who have worked hard all their lives are seeing student loans potentially wiped out by Presidential decree.  People are tired of seeing illegal immigrants waltz into our country and then these same illegals are given free cellphones and given free medical care and housing.  People are also frustrated by having our voting system subverted to allow an inept shyster become President.

      Actions should have consequences.  Thus far, mumbling, bumbling Biden hasn't faced real opposition to his progressive actions.  This recent Supreme Court situation is simply a diversion.  The progressive mobs are prepping for action.  With the current status of the country, I wouldn't be surprised to see conservatives and even folks that would be considered in the middle politically to actively rebel.

     We're in for a long, hot summer.

[Felix]

We Partisans can prognosticate 'till the cows come home but our crystal ball isn't much clearer than that of George Soro's.   Of course he is sure that his is accurate to the second and pixel.   Billions gestate hubris.   But then, he doesn't have (and never will have) our vantage points.
Yes.   It is going to get worse.   Worse in view of historical terms, worse on the ground for us, the cast in this production.   Dragooned into service by circumstance more than simple choice..   Our families.   Our neighbors.  Bad enough to shift entire courses of history.
But that is not our concern.    We don't sweat "the small schitt".
Our concern is bridging the change of swing in pendulums where good and evil manifest themselves.    Our concern is _surviving_ to help shape and enable the recovery from a body's crisis of deathly fever.
Stockpile paper.  Or.  Learn to preserve and write on sheepskin.   Pass on the heirloom seeds and their horticulture, arm a squad with night-fighting capacity... the venues for immortality of what is good and important beggar the mind.
It is a terrible time to be living.   (if "easy" = "wonderful")
It is a wonderful to be living and deciding in a life that will soon meet God.
No less than that of our forefathers when the colonies struck out on their own and told George thanks but no thanks.