Virus

[Nemo]

Numbers reliable?

Nemo



https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10904402/coronavirus-chinese-media-giant-lists-deaths-as-24589/

COVER UP? Coronavirus – Chinese media giant lists death toll at 24,589 but quickly changes to 304 sparking conspiracies
Emily Prescott
6 Feb 2020, 9:19Updated: 6 Feb 2020, 14:27

A CHINESE media giant has sparked conspiracy theories after appearing to publish the coronavirus death toll as more than 24,589 - before changing it to 304.

Tencent, the multinational tech company that developed WeChat, reportedly listed figures for the coronavirus on Saturday showing 154,023 were infected.

.   .   .

continued

[Jackalope]

    Here's an interesting press release from the Department of Defense: https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2076940/dod-statement-on-additional-request-from-hhs/source/GovDelivery/

     I'm curious why they're putting a limiting date of February 22nd.  I thought it was interesting that they specifically state that DOD personnel would not have direct contact with quarantined individuals.  I wonder if they're getting either push back from the troops, or if they're concerned about possibly infecting military personnel. 

[Nemo]

More good, detailed, comprehensive info.  Sorry, I didn't have time to edit it all purty.

Nemo


https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html

Coronavirus cases spike on cruise ship: Live updates on 2019-nCoV

By Live Science Staff 2 hours ago

Here's a look at what you need to know about the new virus.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship sits docked at Daikoku Pier where newly diagnosed coronavirus cases are taken for treatment on Feb. 7, 2020.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship sits docked at Daikoku Pier where newly diagnosed coronavirus cases are taken for treatment on Feb. 7, 2020.
(Image: © Carl Court/Getty Images)

A newly identified coronavirus called 2019-nCoV has been spreading in China, and has now reached multiple other countries. Here's what you need to know.

Update on Friday, Feb. 7 (ET):

 —Officials have screened 273 of the passengers quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise ship off Japan, with 61 individuals testing positive so far.

—The 34-year-old Chinese doctor who was silenced by police for warning about the coronavirus outbreak has died after contracting that virus. China's Communist Party has said it will send a team to investigate the death, The New York Times reported.

—About 31,523 individuals globally (primarily in mainland China) have been confirmed to have the new coronavirus, according to the Johns Hopkins virus dashboard. 

—638 deaths linked to the virus. Deaths in mainland China exceed those from SARS.

—Wuhan officials plan to round up those suspected of being infected into mass quarantine camps, The New York Times reported.

—Two deaths linked to the virus outside of mainland China to date.

—A person in Wisconsin has tested positive for 2019-nCoV, marking the first case in the state and the 12th case in the U.S., officials announced Wednesday (Feb. 5).

—Flights carrying passengers from China will be rerouted to one of 11 U.S. airports, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security; Those airports are: John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, O'Hare International Airport in Illinois, San Francisco International Airport, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Daniel K. Inouye International Airport in Honolulu, Los Angeles International Airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Dulles International Airport in Virginia, Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport in Texas and Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport in Michigan.

— U.S. citizens, permanent residents and immediate family who have visited China's Hubei province will now undergo a mandatory two-week quarantine.
Number of coronavirus cases

Mainland China: 31,205
Thailand: 25
Japan: 25 (plus 61 on cruise ship off coast)
Singapore: 30
Hong Kong: 25
South Korea: 24
Taiwan: 16
Australia: 15
Malaysia: 12
Germany: 12
Macau: 10
U.S.: 12
France: 6
United Arab Emirates: 5
Canada: 7
Italy: 2
Russia: 2
UK: 2
Vietnam: 10
Cambodia: 1
Belgium: 1
Finland: 1
India: 3
Nepal: 1
Philippines: 2
Spain: 1
Sri Lanka: 1
Sweden: 1
Coronavirus quarantine in Wuhan

Wuhan plans to round up those suspected of having the virus to be placed in isolation, in some kind of mass quarantine camps, The New York Times reported. China's Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said that city officials should go door to door to check residents' temperatures and to interview those in contact with infected individuals, the Times reported.

"Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever," Sun said, according to the Times.

The Times is reporting a shortage of medical supplies, coronavirus-testing kits and hospital beds due to the lockdown in the city and surrounding area, leading to people walking on foot from hospital to hospital, only to be turned away.
Who will be quarantined in the US?

Officials announced on Friday (Jan. 31) that the U.S. will be enforcing quarantines on citizens who have traveled to the Hubei Province (where the outbreak originated) in the last 14 days. If U.S. citizens have been to China in the last 14 days, they will be rerouted to one of eleven airports (see above) across the country to be screened for the new coronavirus, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

If passengers who have traveled to China are showing symptoms of the virus (which include a cough, trouble breathing or fever) they will be subject to mandatory quarantines. If passengers who have traveled to China (outside of the Hubei province) show no symptoms after being screened at one of the 11 airports, they will be re-booked to their destinations within the U.S. and asked to self-quarantine at home, according to the DHS.

Other travelers who haven't been to China but are found to be on the same flight of passengers that have been to China might also be rerouted to one of the 11 airports, according to the DHS. What's more, in general "foreign nationals" who have traveled to China in the past 14 days won't be allowed in the U.S.

The details of those quarantines, such as where people will stay, are not yet clear, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said during a teleconference on Feb. 3.

The only people currently under quarantine are the 195 passengers that the U.S. flew back from Wuhan on Jan.29. They are staying at the March Air Reserve Base in Riverside, California. The last time such a quarantine was put in place was over 50 years ago for a smallpox scare.
What is a coronavirus?
CLOSE

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that can cause respiratory illnesses such as the common cold, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Most people get infected with coronaviruses at one point in their lives, but symptoms are typically mild to moderate. In some cases, the viruses can cause lower-respiratory tract illnesses such as pneumonia and bronchitis.

These viruses are common amongst animals worldwide, but only a handful of them are known to affect humans. Rarely, coronaviruses can evolve and spread from animals to humans. This is what happened with the coronaviruses known as the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov), both of which are known to cause more severe symptoms.
Where did the new coronavirus come from?

a closeup on the face of a horseshoe bat(Image credit: Shutterstock)

Since the virus first popped up in Wuhan in people who had visited a local seafood and animal market (called the Huanan seafood market), officials could only say it likely hopped from an animal to humans. In a new study, however, the researchers compared the 2019-nCoV genetic sequence with those in a library of viral sequences, and found that the most closely related viruses were two coronaviruses that originated in bats; both of those coronaviruses shared 88% of their genetic sequence with that of 2019-nCoV.

Based on these results, the authors said the 2019-nCoV likely originated in bats. However, no bats were sold at the Huanan seafood market, which suggests that another yet-to-be-identified animal acted as a steppingstone of sorts to transmit the virus to humans.

A previous study suggested snakes, which were sold at the Huanan seafood market, as a possible source of 2019-nCoV. However, some experts have criticized the study, saying it's unclear if coronaviruses can infect snakes.
Does the coronavirus have an official name?

A person signing a document.(Image credit: Shutterstock)

No, neither the virus nor the disease it causes have official names yet. On Jan. 30, WHO proposed calling the disease "2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease," and the virus "2019-nCoV." (In these names, the "‘n" stands for novel and "CoV" is for coronavirus.) WHO will need to seek approval for the name from the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The final decision on the virus' official name will be made by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, according to WHO.

In a report published on Jan. 29, researchers in China referred to the disease as novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia, or NCIP. 

WHO discourages naming new viruses after geographic locations, people, species or classes of animals or foods, according to the organization's Best Practices for the Naming of New Human Infectious Diseases. Rather, WHO encourages use of descriptive terms of a disease, such as "respiratory disease" and "neurologic syndrome," as well as "severe" or "progressive." The organization also says that if a pathogen is known, it should be used as part of the disease's name.
How does the coronavirus spread between people?

coronavirus diagram, showing the virus infecting lungs.(Image credit: Shutterstock)

On Jan. 30, the CDC identified the first case of person-to-person spread in the United States. As of Feb. 2, cases involving individuals who had not recently traveled to China have been confirmed in: the U.S., Thailand, Taiwan, Germany, Vietnam, Japan and France, the Times reported.

In terms of how one would catch the virus, the CDC says that human coronaviruses are most commonly spread between an infected person and others via:

—the air (from viral particles from a cough or sneeze);

—close personal contact (touching or shaking hands);

—an object or surface with viral particles on it (then touching your mouth, nose or eyes before washing your hands);

 —and rarely from fecal contamination. 

Deaths from coronavirus outside China

A 44-year-old man in the Philippines has become the second person there infected with the novel coronavirus and the first known death linked to the virus outside of China, according to the Department of Health of the Republic of the Philippines. The man died on Feb. 1, the DOH said in a statement, adding: "Our thoughts are with his family at this difficult time."

On Feb. 4, a 39-year-old man died from 2019-nCoV in Hong Kong, according to the New York Times. It's the first death in Hong Kong and the second outside mainland China.
Could this virus cause a pandemic?

People wear face masks as they wait at Hankou Railway Station on Jan. 22, 2020, in Wuhan, China, where the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV originated.(Image credit: Xiaolu Chu/Getty Images)

In order for this virus, or any, to lead to a pandemic in humans, it needs to do three things: efficiently infect humans, replicate in humans and then spread easily among humans, Live Science previously reported. Right now, its unclear how easily the virus spreads from person to person.

To determine how easily the virus spreads, scientists will need to calculate what's known as the "basic reproduction number, or R0 (pronounced R-nought.) This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people. This is similar to previous estimates, which have placed the R0 value between 2 and 3. (For comparison, SARS initially had an R0 of around 3, before public health measures brought it down to less than 1.)

In general, a virus will continue to spread if it has an R value of greater than 1, and so public health measures to stem the outbreak should aim to reduce R0 to less than one, the authors of the NEJM paper said.

The CDC says outbreaks of new viruses are always concerning. However, the agency says the immediate risk to the American public remains low, given the small number of cases and limited spread of the virus here.

Still, an individual's risk of infection "depends on exposure," the CDC said. Some people, including health care workers and those with close contacts infected with 2019-nCoV, are at increased risk of infection, the agency said.

On Jan. 30, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the new coronavirus outbreak is a public health emergency of international concern. The main reason for the declaration is concern that the virus could spread to countries with weaker health systems, WHO said.
How does coronavirus compare to SARS and MERS?

A highly magnified picture of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV).(Image credit: CDC/Cynthia Goldsmith, Azaibi Tamin)

As of Feb. 3, a reported 362 individuals have died (just one of those outside of mainland China), exceeding the death toll from SARS in mainland China — which was 349, according to The New York Times.

MERS and SARS have both been known to cause severe symptoms in people. It's unclear how the new coronavirus will compare in severity, as it has caused severe symptoms and death in some patients while causing only mild illness in others, according to the CDC. All three of the coronaviruses can be transmitted between humans through close contact.

MERS, which was transmitted from touching infected camels or consuming their meat or milk, was first reported in 2012 in Saudi Arabia and has mostly been contained in the Arabian Peninsula, according to NPR. SARS was first reported in 2002 in southern China (no new cases have been reported since 2004) and is thought to have spread from bats that infected civets. The new coronavirus was likely transmitted from touching or eating an infected animal in Wuhan.

During the SARS outbreak, the virus killed about 1 in 10 people who were infected. The death rate from 2019-nCoV isn't yet known. In the beginning of an outbreak, the initial cases that are identified "skew to the severe," which may make the mortality rate seem higher than it is, Alex Azar, secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Homeland Security (HHS), said during a news briefing on Tuesday (Jan. 28). The mortality rate may drop as more mild cases are identified, Azar said.

Currently, most of the patients who have died from the infection have been older than 60 and have had preexisting conditions.
What are the symptoms of the new coronavirus and how do you treat it?



Symptoms of the new coronavirus include fever, cough and difficulty breathing, according to the CDC. It's estimated that symptoms may appear as soon as two days or as long as 14 days after exposure, the CDC said. The NEJM study published on Jan. 29 estimated that, on average, people show symptoms about five days after they are infected.

There are no specific treatments for coronavirus infections and most people will recover on their own, according to the CDC. So treatment involves rest and medication to relieve symptoms. A humidifier or hot shower can help to relieve a sore throat and cough. If you are mildly sick, you should drink a lot of fluids and rest but if you are worried about your symptoms, you should see a healthcare provider, they wrote. (This is advice for all coronaviruses, not specifically aimed toward the new virus).

There is no vaccine for the new coronavirus, but researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health confirmed they were in preliminary stages of developing one. Officials plan to launch a phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine within the next three months,  Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a news conference on Jan. 28.

Researchers are also working on gathering samples of the virus  to design a therapy that will train patients' immune cells to detect and destroy the virus, Facui said.
What is being done to stop the spread of the coronavirus?

Health officers screen arriving passengers from China with thermal scanners at Changi International airport in Singapore on Jan. 22, 2020, as authorities increased measures against the spread of the newfound coronavirus.Health officers screen arriving passengers from China with thermal scanners at Changi International airport in Singapore on Jan. 22, 2020, as authorities increased measures against the spread of the newfound coronavirus. (Image credit: ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP via Getty Images)

The Chinese government put Wuhan and many other nearby cities on "lockdown," meaning people are not allowed in or out of the area, according to The New York Times.

The governments of both Taiwan and Hong Kong have said they would not allow in anyone from the Hubei Province (where Wuhan is located).

Major airports in the U.S. are conducting screenings to try to check for symptoms of the virus. On Jan. 28, CDC officials announced that 15 additional U.S. airports will begin screening travelers for the virus, bringing the total number of airports conducting screening in the U.S. to 20. The CDC also recommends that Americans avoid all nonessential travel to China.

Nearly 200 Americans have been evacuated from Wuhan and will be monitored for 14 days for signs of infection, according to CNN.

The Chinese government has banned the sale of wildlife in markets, restaurants and online.

Also, starting Sunday, Feb. 2, U.S. citizens, permanent residents and immediate family who have visited China's Hubei province will undergo a mandatory two-week quarantine. And "foreign nationals" who have traveled to China in the past 14 days won't be allowed in the U.S., officials said. If Americans visited any other part of China, they will be screened at airports and asked to self-quarantine for 14 days.

Australia is also barring entry to non-citizens who have recently visited China.
How can people protect themselves and others?

A woman wearing a face mask on a flight.(Image credit: Shutterstock)

The best way to prevent infection with 2019-nCoV is to avoid being exposed to the virus, according to the CDC. In general, the CDC recommends the following to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses: Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands; avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick and clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.

If traveling to China, you should avoid contact with sick people, avoid dead or alive animals, animal markets or products that come from animals such as uncooked meat, the CDC said.

People who traveled to China and became sick with fever, cough or difficulty breathing within the following two weeks should seek medical care right away, and call ahead to inform medical staff about their recent travel, the CDC said.

Jeanna Bryner, Rachael Rettner, Yasemin Saplakoglu and Nicoletta Lanese contributed reporting.

[Jackalope]

     Let's see, 400 million people are now quarantined, yet there has only been 638 deaths.  That's a load of bull manure.  We still aren't getting the full picture.  Anyways, here's more from Zerohedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine

[Nemo]

More news.  Click link and check map.  Looks like all of China should be quarantined.

Nemo


https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-deaths-in-china-grow-to-772-more-than-34500-cases-reported

Coronavirus
Published 2 hours ago
Coronavirus deaths in China grow to 722, more than 34,500 cases reported
By Louis Casiano | Fox News

China increased its death toll from the coronavirus Friday to 722, while new cases jumped to 34,546, according to reports.

Chinese officials are still trying to stem the flow of infections in the mainland as the virus continues to spread globally. The country's ruling Communist Party is also dealing with public anger over the death of a doctor who was detained and threatened by authorities for spreading early warnings of the illness in December.

Dr. Li Wenliang, 34, an ophthalmologist, contracted the virus while treating patients at a hospital in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak that has since been sealed off, Authorities said it will “fully investigate relevant issues raised by the public" in response to his death.

China has also sealed off as have 17 other cities in an effort to prevent infections. Other countries are also taking extra measures.

Cruise passengers in Japan are being quarantined amid reports of 61 cases. Japanese officials also turned another ship away, the Holland America’s Westerdam. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he suspected some passengers on the vessel had been infected.

In a phone with President Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the U.S. to  “respond reasonably” to the outbreak. He echoed concerns from Chinese officials that some countries are overreacting to the outbreak by placing restrictions on Chinese travelers.

SOUTH KOREANS 'HOARDING' CORONAVIRUS MASKS COULD FACE JAIL TIME, HEFTY FINES
Separating coronavirus fact from fiction

continued

[Nemo]

Its increased to about 35,000 infections and 800+ deaths in China.   But when it gets going in Africa the whole world better look out and get that extra jar of peanut butter.

Nemo

https://onenewsnow.com/ap/world/we-re-definitely-not-prepared-africa-braces-for-new-virus

‘We’re definitely not prepared’: Africa braces for new virus
Associated Press

LUSAKA, Zambia (February 8, 2020) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.

Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.

But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.

“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.

Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.

.   .   .

Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.

.   .   .

continued

[Jackalope]

     For those folks planning on bugging in long term, and growing your own food, don't forget to obtain lots of canning supplies.

[Nemo]

Its in Africa. Get ready world  It gets going there anticipate migration to Europe and more developed countries like a daily D-Day invasion.

Nemo



Note date of report.

https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/what-is-coronavirus-latest-updates-first-case-reported-in-africa/




And now the rest of the world is starting to pay attention to Africa.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/nation-world/african-countries-worry-about-coronavirus-preparedness/285-59bae02d-55c1-418a-90df-885061d01b26



Flights between China and Africa being reduced.

https://qz.com/africa/1799481/coronavirus-fears-pressures-ethiopian-airlines-to-cut-china-flights/

Get Ready world.

Nemo

[Nemo]

Details on Africa.

Nemo


Its increased to about 35,000 infections and 800+ deaths in China.   But when it gets going in Africa the whole world better look out and get that extra jar of peanut butter.

Nemo

https://onenewsnow.com/ap/world/we-re-definitely-not-prepared-africa-braces-for-new-virus

‘We’re definitely not prepared’: Africa braces for new virus
Associated Press

LUSAKA, Zambia (February 8, 2020) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.

Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.

But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.

“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.

Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.

.   .   .

Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.

.   .   .

continued

[gadget99]

Details on Africa.

Nemo


Its increased to about 35,000 infections and 800+ deaths in China.   But when it gets going in Africa the whole world better look out and get that extra jar of peanut butter.

Nemo

https://onenewsnow.com/ap/world/we-re-definitely-not-prepared-africa-braces-for-new-virus

‘We’re definitely not prepared’: Africa braces for new virus
Associated Press

LUSAKA, Zambia (February 8, 2020) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.

Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.

But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.

“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.

Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.

.   .   .

Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.

.   .   .

continued

Is there a link to the AP News article directly?

I cannot find it on their website.

Thanks

[Nemo]

Try this.

Nemo

https://apnews.com/e11a9c5801264262e0b2f8661408b32a

[Nemo]

Newest numbers. Fatality rate from total infections is now running about 20%.  But my thinking methods show the increase in infections over past several days is skewing that downward.

Nemo


https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



Total Confirmed
40,574

Total Deaths
910

Total Recovered
3,578

[gadget99]

Cool.....

Thank you Nemo

[Nemo]

WHO has a bit of a problem with and fear of what this could turn into.  Might get a extra box or 2 for the pantry and safe.

Nemo


https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-very-grave-threat-for-world-who

Outbreaks
Published 26 mins ago
Coronavirus outbreak 'very grave threat' for rest of world: WHO
By Alexandria Hein | Fox News

A day after a team of World Health Organization (WHO) medical experts arrived in China to help investigate the deadly coronavirus outbreak, the health agency’s director said the virus poses “a very grave threat for the rest of the world.”

Over 1,000 people in China have died after contracting the virus, which has sickened over 43,000 others globally. Just under 400 of those cases have been confirmed in countries outside of China.

“With 99 percent of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a video conference with hundreds of researchers on Tuesday.

In an appeal to researchers who had dialed in to the conference from all over the world, Tedros called for more collaboration in order to fast-track rapid diagnostic testing and vaccines.

.   .   .

continued

[Erick]

Even though the numbers are getting scarier now because they are bigger, right now there is nothing happening that wasnt predictable, (and predicted, I might add) 3-4 weeks ago.
As the numbers get bigger/scarier now more and more americans who poo-pooed the issue previously are concerned.

Key points, we need to keep an eye on are a rising %age of deaths as cases go into ARDS and at some point all available ventilators are occupied.
This situation is what would (will?) make the death numbers skyrocket.

The first country this might happen in is China.

But we have enough infections outside of China now.. in places were China cannot control the data we will gain more clarity.
It is still possible that from a health standpoint this can become a problem IF the infection gets big enough in a given country that the quarter or so ,of infected who go into ARDS exceed the number of available ventilators.
If this doesnt happen death rates will remain low..

My guess is that ventilator production in China is running 3 shifts but at some point u will also run out of qualified operators..
So its still possible we can see much bigger death numbers when a given country reaches that tipping point (or in the case of china the deaths may be simple covered up... which is easy for them to do)

This is what may, cause a panic in the homeland if it does occur.
Still might be primarily an economic issues rather than a health one.. but we know how dangerous that can be.

[Nemo]

Here.  Now.  Triple digits from Atlanta.

Nemo


https://www.foxnews.com/us/nearly-200-georgia-residents-monitored-for-coronavirus-china-reports-97-new-deaths-on-wednesday

Georgia
Published 7 hours ago
Nearly 200 Georgia residents being monitored for coronavirus; 97 new deaths in China
By David Aaro | Fox News
Georgia health officials announced on Tuesday that roughly 200 residents were self-monitoring for the coronavirus after recently returning from China.

None of the residents have shown symptoms of the virus or visited Hubei province -- the epicenter of the outbreak.

Health officials reportedly didn't use the word quarantine, instead, phrasing it that people are being isolated in their homes for 14 days, which is considered the virus's incubation period, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. A new paper by Chinese scientists says the period could be as long as 24 days.

Officials have reportedly been calling each traveler, letting them know of the potential symptoms of the virus and the importance of staying at home during the timeframe. Residents under quarantine were given an online tool that notifies them when their isolation time is up, according to the AJC.

.   .   .

continued

[Deathstyle]

So . . . I work NOC shift at a mental hospital currently. The whole hospital is like a small town where everybody hears everything about one another. Apparently NOC shift is the shift with the best relationships amongst co-workers. Lucky me.


There is one lady that is a Chinese immigrant whose family is in the coastal province closest to Hong Kong island. She had been planning since the holidays to go on a month long vacation to visit family in China in March. I recently brought it up to a co-worker that regularly works near her unit that her plans were probably scrapped. He said he heard that her home village was made up of 4 main families and that 2 of those families were wiped out.

I then brought it up with an LVN I'm close too and she said that the Chinese worker said people were kinda sick but downplayed it and didn't really want to talk about it.

It's all gossip right now. I'll keep probing for info as time goes on.

[Jackalope]

     Here's an interesting analysis regarding the effect of the China Flu on China: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-has-ground-halt-ground-indicators-confirm-worst-case-scenario   It looks like we're in for some supply interruptions.  I suggest stocking up on medicines now, before it's too late.  I imagine there will be some hungry folks here eventually.

     As a follow-up, I've been filling in holes in our preparations this week.  I noticed at Walmarts, that there definite gaps in items like canned vegetables and fruits.  At our local Lowes, they still had plenty of the N-95 masks in the mowing/outdoor section of the store.

[JohnyMac]

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/02/the-sneeze-heard-in-wuhan-city-china-felt-economically-around-the-world/

[Nemo]

Glad there is a short, intelligent, cogent summary for me to give to my wife and a couple others who think this is all on the other side of the world.

When we have 1000 infections or 100 fatalities on this side of the water they may realize its happening here too.  But I am quite confident once they get woke they will respond quickly and capably.

Nemo

[Nemo]

See below.

Nemo



https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30382112

Economic fallout from China's coronavirus mounts across the globe
Econ
Feb 14. 2020
File Photo by The Washington Post
By The Washington Post · David J. Lynch

The economic casualties from China's coronavirus epidemic are mounting as Asian and European auto plants run short of parts, free-spending Chinese tourists stay home and American companies brace for unpredictable turbulence.

That's just the start of a financial hangover that is expected to linger for months even if the flulike illness is soon brought under control, economists and supply chain experts say. The Chinese epidemic's aftereffects will likely cause the global economy to shrink this quarter for the first time since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, according to Capital Economics in London.

Chinese factories had been scheduled to reopen on Feb. 10 after a Lunar New Year holiday that already had been extended for several days because of the medical scare. But with many workers unable or unwilling to return to employers located in a sprawling quarantine region, the resumption of routine operations in many workplaces has been delayed.

.   .   .

continued

[Nemo]

It appears the initial fears were accurate.

Nemo


https://nypost.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-can-be-spread-by-people-who-dont-show-symptoms-cdc-warns/

Coronavirus can be spread by people who don’t show symptoms, CDC warns
By Jackie Salo
February 13, 2020

Coronavirus can be spread through people who aren’t exhibiting symptoms of the illness, the director of the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention said Thursday.

Dr. Robert Redfield confirmed reports out of China that the virus can spread when the person is still asymptomatic, according to CNN.

“There’s been good communication with our colleagues to confirm asymptomatic infection, to confirm asymptomatic transmission, to be able to get a better handle on the clinical spectrum of illness in China,” Redfield told the outlet.

Redfield said it’s not known how much the asymptomatic cases are contributing to the spread of the virus — which has sickened more than 60,000 people worldwide — but the discovery is concerning.

“What I’ve learned in the last two weeks is that the spectrum of this illness is much broader than was originally presented. There’s much more asymptomatic illness,” he said.

He added that a number of confirmed cases presented with just a “little sore throat.”

His comments come as the agency confirmed the 15th case of the coronavirus in the US.

[Nemo]

More not so good news.

Nemo



https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/

Health
Disease modelers gaze into their computers to see the future of Covid-19, and it isn’t good
By Sharon Begley @sxbegle
February 14, 2020   

At least 550,000 cases. Maybe 4.4 million. Or something in between.

Like weather forecasters, researchers who use mathematical equations to project how bad a disease outbreak might become are used to uncertainties and incomplete data, and Covid-19, the disease caused by the new-to-humans coronavirus that began circulating in Wuhan, China, late last year, has those everywhere you look. That can make the mathematical models of outbreaks, with their wide range of forecasts, seem like guesswork gussied up with differential equations; the eightfold difference in projected Covid-19 cases in Wuhan, calculated by a team from the U.S. and Canada, isn’t unusual for the early weeks of an outbreak of a never-before-seen illness.

But infectious-disease models have been approximating reality better and better in recent years, thanks to a better understanding of everything from how germs behave to how much time people spend on buses.

“Year by year there have been improvements in forecasting models and the way they are combined to provide forecasts,” said physicist Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University, a leading infectious-disease modeler.

Related:
Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained   
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

That’s not to say there’s not room for improvement. The key variables of most models are mostly the same ones epidemiologists have used for decades to predict the course of outbreaks. But with greater computer power now at their disposal, modelers are incorporating more fine-grained data to better reflect the reality of how people live their lives and interact in the modern world — from commuting to work to jetting around the world. These more detailed models can take weeks to spit out their conclusions, but they can better inform public health officials on the likely impact of disease-control measures.

Models are not intended to be scare machines, projecting worst-case possibilities. (Modelers prefer “project” to “predict,” to indicate that the outcomes they describe are predicated on numerous assumptions.) The idea is to calculate numerous what-ifs: What if schools and workplaces closed? What if public transit stopped? What if there were a 90% effective vaccine and half the population received it in a month?

“Our overarching goal is to minimize the spread and burden of infectious disease,” said Sara Del Valle, an applied mathematician and disease modeler at Los Alamos National Laboratory. By calculating the effects of countermeasures such as social isolation, travel bans, vaccination, and using face masks, modelers can “understand what’s going on and inform policymakers,” she said. For instance, although many face masks are too porous to keep viral particles out (or in), their message of possible contagion here! “keeps people away from you” and reduces disease spread, Del Valle said. “I’m a fan of face masks.”

The clearest sign of the progress in modeling comes from flu forecasts in the U.S. Every year, about two dozen labs try to model the flu season, and have been coming ever closer to accurately forecasting its timing, peak, and short-term intensity. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention determines which model did the best; for 2018-2019, it was one from Los Alamos.

Los Alamos also nailed the course of the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Toronto, including when it would peak. “And it was spot on in the number of people who would be infected,” said Del Valle: just under 400 in that city, of a global total of about 8,000.

.   .   .


continued

[Jackalope]

    This Chinese virus is going to change the world.  I foresee cascade failures coming in our future.  Cascade failures are often seen in fatal aircraft accidents, for instance, someone doesn't close a door properly on an aircraft, the pilot becomes distracted by a minor problem and crashes the aircraft into the ground, even though the aircraft itself was flying fine.  Cascade failures an also be likened to the falling domino effect.  It's going to be a bumpy ride.

[Nemo]

Assess credibility.

Nemo

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/alleged-c-d-c-text-messages-say-over-1-000-infected-with-coronavirus-in-u-s-a-being-deliberately-concealed

Nation
ALLEGED C.D.C. TEXT MESSAGES SAY "over 1,000" INFECTED WITH CORONAVIRUS IN U.S.A. -- BEING DELIBERATELY CONCEALED





While the U.S. mass-media is reporting there are "15 confirmed cases" of the deadly Chinese Coronavirus in the US, a lead Doctor in the CDC allegedly sent a text message to a family friend admitting "there have already been over 1,000 cases in the U.S."   The Text also says they are ". . . trying to prevent panic . . ."

According to an 18 year old in upstate New York near Schenectady, his father had a text messaging exchange with Doctor Nancy Messonnier, the Director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD) within the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), photo below.

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continued