Virus

[Jackalope]

    Ir is reported that Beijing is going on lock down, with no transport into or out of the city.  I wonder how much food they have stashed to feed such a large population.  Now is the time to close our borders.

[pkveazey]

Hmmmmm…… Who are we supposed to believe? There was a Dr. on the news tonight that said the Coronavirus was the same virus as the common cold. However, there are several mutations that are really bad. Oh, that makes me feel a lot better,(Sarcasm). He said it was like comparing a horse to a zebra. One is commonplace and the other is really rare, even though they are pretty much the same animal. OK, I'll just wait and see what happens. Lets just see if the zebra runs amuck.

The common cold is caused by as many as 200 different viruses.
There is no "Common Cold Virus"
The most "common" virus to cause the "Common Cold" is a Rhinovirus (60-70% of "Common Cold" infections caused). This is a different class than a  Coronavirus.

Medical Doctors are for fixing broke people. They are not necessarily Biologists (anymore that is.... their original training in Biology is actually quite thorough... but after 10-20 years people forget)

No matter who you are .. it doesnt hurt to check references.. in Science BTW Wikipedia is usually quite good, because so many guys look for errors all the time (I think I found a small error on a unrelated chemistry page.. will triple check before I send it in though):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

Erick is right on the money about the Rhinovirus being the main Common Cold virus. WhenI heard the Dr. Say the Coronavirus was the same as the common cold virus, a red flag went up.[quote author=Erick

Yep, I agree with Erick. Ive always been told that thecommon cold was the zhino virus and there were about 200 stains. There also can be just as many strains of influenza. Just read everything and believe nothing and do whatever you can to protect yourselves.

Hmmmmm…… Who are we supposed to believe? There was a Dr. on the news tonight that said the Coronavirus was the same virus as the common cold. However, there are several mutations that are really bad. Oh, that makes me feel a lot better,(Sarcasm). He said it was like comparing a horse to a zebra. One is commonplace and the other is really rare, even though they are pretty much the same animal. OK, I'll just wait and see what happens. Lets just see if the zebra runs amuck.

The common cold is caused by as many as 200 different viruses.
There is no "Common Cold Virus"
The most "common" virus to cause the "Common Cold" is a Rhinovirus (60-70% of "Common Cold" infections caused). This is a different class than a  Coronavirus.

Medical Doctors are for fixing broke people. They are not necessarily Biologists (anymore that is.... their original training in Biology is actually quite thorough... but after 10-20 years people forget)

No matter who you are .. it doesnt hurt to check references.. in Science BTW Wikipedia is usually quite good, because so many guys look for errors all the time (I think I found a small error on a unrelated chemistry page.. will triple check before I send it in though):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold
[/quote]

[Jackalope]

     Here's an example of what we will be facing: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1221041411543523329    Can you imagine what this is going to do to the markets on Monday morning?

[Nemo]

The thing that is bother me is the virus is air transmissible.  I have not discovered much on limits on life span outside people.  If it lasts 3 weeks on a table top or 6 months in a dark space is bad.

And Drudge.

Nemo


http://drudgereport.com/

XI: SPREAD ACCELERATING
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51249208

'GRAVE SITUATION'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/xi-says-china-faces-grave-situation-as-virus-toll-hits-41-idUSKBN1ZO005

56 MILLION QUARANTINED
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10817933/coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-china/

USA TO EVACUATE CITIZENS
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-plans-to-evacuate-citizens-from-epidemic-stricken-chinese-city-11579951256

[Jackalope]

    Well now they're saying it didn't start in the seafood market: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047646/no-link-seafood-market-first-case-china-coronavirus-chinese 

[Erick]

I been watching thse guys for years... consider them a good source that I pay attention to more than the WaPo or NYT etc..
This might be the nuanced social media "leak" we been looking for.

Still watching the vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo

PS: I am going food shopping after this.. nothing crazy but it cant hurt and i have plenty of $$ to spend

I know its bad netiquette to quote yourself.. But again the link above seems to have the best on the ground info I seen to so far anywhere..

also not sure if I posted it here yet but there were some questions in this thread.
Here is some data on viability of a related virus, "in the open"... I expect this strain to be in the same ballpark.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

[patriotman]

I been watching thse guys for years... consider them a good source that I pay attention to more than the WaPo or NYT etc..
This might be the nuanced social media "leak" we been looking for.

Still watching the vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo

PS: I am going food shopping after this.. nothing crazy but it cant hurt and i have plenty of $$ to spend

I know its bad netiquette to quote yourself.. But again the link above seems to have the best on the ground info I seen to so far anywhere..

also not sure if I posted it here yet but there were some questions in this thread.
Here is some data on viability of a related virus, "in the open"... I expect this strain to be in the same ballpark.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

This video is fantastic Erick. Thanks!

[Erick]

I been watching thse guys for years... consider them a good source that I pay attention to more than the WaPo or NYT etc..
This might be the nuanced social media "leak" we been looking for.

Still watching the vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo

PS: I am going food shopping after this.. nothing crazy but it cant hurt and i have plenty of $$ to spend

I know its bad netiquette to quote yourself.. But again the link above seems to have the best on the ground info I seen to so far anywhere..

also not sure if I posted it here yet but there were some questions in this thread.
Here is some data on viability of a related virus, "in the open"... I expect this strain to be in the same ballpark.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

This video is fantastic Erick. Thanks!

YW.. I been watching those guys for a while but someone turned me on to this truth on the ground vid..
I been sending it to my prepper group.
Of course its over a day old now and things move so fast I am looking for an update from those guys.. If they do one I will remember to post it on here.

[Erick]

Also Interview with Dr Hatfield (I havent even watched it myself yet)
Dr Hatfield is not a medical doctor but an actual Virologist. Was suspected by the FBI in the Anthrax letter attacks BTW..

https://www.buzzsprout.com/794960/2574682-coronaviruses-alert-alert-alert?mc_cid=6157014cdc&mc_eid=5f62b43492

And here is Stefan M. doing an interview with a Hong Kong resident

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zEIQuRg-m4

[Nemo]

Get that extra jar of peanut butter.

Nemo

[Nemo]

Map of where its at.

Nemo

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-heat-map-johns-hopkins-university

[Nemo]

Might be worth a read.  Have to scroll down a bit to get to the virus info.

Nemo



https://threatjournal.com/archive/tj01252020.html

[Jackalope]

    I have Dr. Hatfield's book, and it's scary stuff.  The interview is interesting.  Essentially, the U.S. isn't prepared for this virus.  Folks, we are on our own.  Buy your last minute items and hunker down.

[Erick]

    I have Dr. Hatfield's book, and it's scary stuff.  The interview is interesting.  Essentially, the U.S. isn't prepared for this virus.  Folks, we are on our own.  Buy your last minute items and hunker down.

Dr H. does a great job explaining these things in a nuanced way.

[Jackalope]

    Dr. Hatfill was very explicit in the interview, the U.S. is not prepared for what is coming.  We have a small window to get as prepared as we can.  Once this gets rolling it will change the world.  It's already changing China.  It will be interesting to see how it effects the politics there.  I'm still reading that over 100,000 people are infected, and the death rate is about 15%.  I wonder how long it'll take before the average American notices that there's a serious problem.

[Erick]

No country is truly prepared for this.

Again I am not saying doom and gloom (yet)
Only that I wasnt concerned about Ebola 2014, SARS and MERS but am concerned now.

The key question is... once you remove the warm meat markets, packet public transport and chinese lack of hygiene as an amplifier of this disease.. does it then still have an Ro sufficient to spread to a significant %age of the population in the USA?

We simply cannot answer this question yet, with a yes/no.

And it will 100% determine wether it will be a threat to US or not.

[gadget99]

Great perspective reminder there Eric.

Thank you for sharing your knowledge.

Geographically dispersed societies may weather something like this better than those with high population densities.

I am keeping a weary eye on this one. There is a significant chinese population here with the expected higher amount of travel to and from china.

That coupled with a higher population density here.

I do believe that the government here is missing an opportunity at the moment though. They should begin airing health advice Material to prime the populace and get them taking hygiene precautions now.

Not panicking really. We are in good shape to weather a storm if it comes. Just going to top up a few things.

Peace all.

[Nemo]

Another confirmed case in US.  Orange County area.

Nemo

https://www.foxnews.com/health/third-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-southern-california

Coronavirus
Published 4 hours ago
California case of coronavirus is 3rd confirmed in US
By Brie Stimson | Fox News

The third case of coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in Southern California on Saturday, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency's Communicable Disease Control Division.

The patient had recently returned from Wuhan, China – epicenter of the outbreak that is believed to have killed at least 56 people -- and was in a hospital in good condition by Saturday evening, the agency said in a statement.

Officials didn't provide details about the infected patient but said there's no evidence anyone else in Orange County was exposed to the highly contagious virus.

.   .   .

continued

[Nemo]

Appears transmission ability strengthening.  Drudge is really covering this.  They usually go a day or so on something then lets it slide down for the next big news.  Seems to me this is hanging on a bit more than usual.

Everyone out there has had your pneumonia vaccines, correct?  Both the Pneumovax and Prevnar.   Seems to me the pneumonia is becoming a big factor in the fatalities.

Nemo


http://news.trust.org/item/20200126105121-12mxo

China scrambles to contain 'strengthening' virus
by Reuters
Sunday, 26 January 2020 14:51 GMT

(Adds comments from mayor of Wuhan)

* Coronavirus' transmission ability getting stronger

* Incubation 1-14 days, infectious during incubation

* China confirms 1,975 people infected, 56 dead

* U.S. to evacuate diplomatic staff, citizens from Wuhan

* China imposes temporary nationwide ban on sale of wildlife

By Gabriel D. Crossley and Cheng Leng

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The ability of the new coronavirus to spread is strengthening and infections could continue to rise, China's National Health Commission said on Sunday, with more than 2,000 people in China infected and 56 killed by the disease.

Health authorities around the world are racing to prevent a pandemic after a handful of cases of infection were reported outside China, including in Thailand, Australia, the United States and France.

The mayor of Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, said he expected another 1,000 new patients in the city, which was stepping up construction of special hospitals.

The newly identified coronavirus has created alarm because much about it is still unknown, such as how dangerous it is and how easily it spreads between people. It can cause pneumonia, which has been deadly in some cases.

.   .   .

continued

[Nemo]

This one is a bit scary.

Nemo


https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html

China warns that coronavirus can spread before symptoms show, as death toll rises

By Joshua Berlinger, Brett McKeehan and Tara John, CNN
Updated 10:24 a.m. ET, January 26, 2020

There are more than 2,000 confirmed cases of the virus, and 56 deaths, worldwide as concern mounts about the rate of its spread.

Here's a rundown of what has been happening over the past few hours:

Outbreak in China: Some 1,975 cases were confirmed in mainland China, with full or partial lockdowns in 15 Chinese cities as authorities attempt to limit the virus's spread. The death toll rose to 56, with all cases occurring within the country.

Contagious before symptoms: People can spread the virus before symptoms show, China's health minister said Sunday. If he's correct, people who did not know they are ill have been spreading the virus. A veteran adviser for a US health agency called the news a "game changer."

.   .   .

continued

[Erick]

This one is a bit scary.

Nemo


https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html

China warns that coronavirus can spread before symptoms show, as death toll rises

By Joshua Berlinger, Brett McKeehan and Tara John, CNN
Updated 10:24 a.m. ET, January 26, 2020

There are more than 2,000 confirmed cases of the virus, and 56 deaths, worldwide as concern mounts about the rate of its spread.

Here's a rundown of what has been happening over the past few hours:

Outbreak in China: Some 1,975 cases were confirmed in mainland China, with full or partial lockdowns in 15 Chinese cities as authorities attempt to limit the virus's spread. The death toll rose to 56, with all cases occurring within the country.

Contagious before symptoms: People can spread the virus before symptoms show, China's health minister said Sunday. If he's correct, people who did not know they are ill have been spreading the virus. A veteran adviser for a US health agency called the news a "game changer."

.   .   .

continued

DW has picked this up now too.. likely via the same one source though..

Its near unbelievable.. titer of virus in blood is very low during incubation period.. which is why its the incubation period.. stuff is still being uincubated... so if true obviously makes control MUCH harder..
Here is DW on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqUn71O0B6k

[Nemo]

Spread DURING incubation confirmed.

Nemo



https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-spread-during-incubation-period-chinese-official-claims

Coronavirus
Published 1 hour ago
Coronavirus can be spread during incubation period, Chinese official claims
Alexandria Hein
By Alexandria Hein | Fox News

China’s health minister said he believes the novel coronavirus that has sickened over 2,000 and killed at least 81 can be spread during the incubation period, sparking fears that the virus may be more easily passed on than previously thought. National Health Minister Ma Xiaowei made the comments at a press briefing on Sunday and said that information on the virus was limited, making many risks unclear.

Ma said the incubation period for the novel coronavirus, identified by health officials as 2019-nCoV, can range from one to 14 days, during which it is infectious. While the virus was first linked to a large seafood and animal market in Wuhan, officials have since determined that it’s transmissible between humans.

Ma said the country was entering a “crucial” stage in the response efforts as “it seems like the ability of the virus to spread is getting stronger.”

The outbreak has caught the attention of health agencies worldwide, and while the World Health Organization (WHO) called it a “crisis” in China, it declined to declare it an international health emergency. However, that hasn’t stopped other health agencies from springing into action. Last week, the National Institutes of Health confirmed to Fox News that a possible vaccine for the virus was in “early stages” of development.

Elsewhere, authorities have been keeping their citizens informed and enforcing travel restrictions and advisories in an effort to contain the spread.

“At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) posted on its coronavirus information page.
 
The health agency warned that while person-to-person transmission had not yet been reported in the U.S., which has five confirmed cases in people who traveled to Wuhan, “it’s likely to occur to some extent.” However, officials maintain that risk to the general American public remains low.

As more countries reported cases in citizens who had traveled to the Wuhan region or in those who had contact with such travelers, Ma vowed that containment efforts in China would be intensified. As many as 50 million people are estimated to be affected by lockdowns that were imposed in 15 cities around Wuhan.

The country has also extended its week-long Lunar New Year celebration to Feb. 2 in an effort to prevent the virus from spreading further, while travel agencies were instructed to cancel group tourism and closely monitor travelers coming from the region.

Other governments are working on plans to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan, which has been quarantined since Jan. 22. Officials shut down the airport and public transportation and have forbidden people from leaving. As many as 13 other cities had enacted similar measures.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[Nemo]

SARS and MERS are also Corona Virii.  They run between 10 and 40% fatalities.

Nemo

https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-dangerous-is-coronavirus

Coronavirus
Published 4 days ago
Last Update 3 mins ago
How dangerous is coronavirus?


Weeks after Chinese officials announced the outbreak of a new virus, over 2,700 people have been sickened and 80 have died, leading to questions of just how alarmed the public should be.

.   .   .


Most coronaviruses cause mild symptoms such as the common cold that patients easily recover from. Other strains of the virus such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) can cause pneumonia and possible death.

SARS killed 770 of 8,000 people infected in 2002-2003. MERS killed about three or four out of every 10 people infected, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.

.   .   .

continued

[JohnyMac]

If you can, stay off of airplanes till this over.

[Erick]

Yes.. but keep in mind this..
In order to spread during incubation.. in other words in the absence of sneezing, coughing, nose blowing.. that is the usual vector... it means only close personal contact likely kissiing  perhaps a close hug..

A person 2 feet from u who does not display symptoms will still not be infectious... unless u both get close up and personal