Virus

[gadget99]

There are indications that the use of anti-inflammatories such as Ibuprofen can cause complications. This might explain some of the numbers around people that did not have underlying conditions.

Here is a link.

https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms/amp

[gadget99]

Hi all,

I needed to post this link to a report that came out here in the news.

This is a report on a hospital in northern Italy. It has been on the front line of their outbreak and the picture has been grim for them.

The channel that produced this piece is one that has a good enough reputation that it is unlikely that the story is untrue.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rfkbv_WQtn0&feature=youtu.be

Thanks all

[Kbop]

Yep. 

[gadget99]

Well,

Myself and the wife went out to our local pub for dinner.

I had Mussels and she had lamb stew.

Prophetically this was the last night all pubs in the UK are open.

This is and end to an era.

[JohnyMac]

looks good brother! 

[DMCakhunter]

Our bars and restaurants are closed too, unless they can offer take out. Fast food is open.

[grizz]

A friend is leaving the state in a few days and I'm taking her to a local lake for a going away picnic. Yeah its going to be in the 30's and snow on the ground but I refuse to participate in this manmade panic BS

[Nemo]

Maybe just the fatalities are catching up with the spread rate or something else is happening.   Fatal rate has been running about 7%-9%.  Basically overnight it has gone up to 12%.

Nemo

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

1439 EDT.
Total Deaths
12,755

Total Recovered
91,540

Total infections completed (died or recovered)--104,295 divded into the total fatalities, 12,755 by my math comes out to 12.2% fatality rate.

[JohnyMac]

This morning there are 35,345 confirmed cases 473 deaths = 1.3% in the USofA.

This death rate percentage has not changed within the past six days.

[grizz]

This morning there are 35,345 confirmed cases 473 deaths = 1.3% in the USofA.

This death rate percentage has not changed within the past six days.

Its still not that big of a deal.

When you consider that number is not entirely accurate because it does not take into account all the people infected but dont know it and still recover, the percentage drops dramatically but can't be calculated because its unknown

[DMCakhunter]

Just an observation, you have the sick / infected, then the recovered, then the dead. Shouldn't the death rate be listed as a percentage of dead versus the recovered? The sick will be just sick until they are counted in either of the other 2 categories.

[Nemo]

Thats how I do the math.  Sick people can go to the dead or recovered category.  Until they get in one of those, they are not a factor in the death rate, per my thinkings and learnings.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Numbers now.

Total Confirmed
372,563

Total Deaths
16,381

Total Recovered
100,885

That gives me a total of 117,266 as total finished with disease, because they are either dead from it or recovered from it.  Its no longer a factor in their health.

The number of deaths divided by total finished with disease give me 13.9% death rate.

If my math and methodology is bad please correct me and explain.

Nemo

[Nemo]

From the link above, right now it shows the US as:

Total Confirmed
41,708

Total Deaths
573

 Total Recovered
0

No Data

There is not enough info to make any reasonable assessment.

Nemo

[Kbop]

fun with numbers -
assume the current numbers of dead in the USofA is 1.5x the reported rate due to undiagnosed cases with involved SARS-2 infection.  Because of very restricted testing, this is our starting point.
reason - we know if someone with cardiovascular disease and COPD dies - they aren't tested.  CoD is complications due to COPD, namely bilateral pneumonia - even if CoViD-19 was a co-morbidity.  Similar story for T1 Diabetics, Chemo/Radiation patients, long term smokers and a few others.  Anyone prone to cytokine or immune system abnormalities.
lets multiply that by 100 (assumes average CFR is %1)
so total dead 573 X 1.5 = 859.5 multiplied by 100 is 85,000 cases minimum.
Case rate should double every 5 days for 2+ weeks.  if social distancing works we'll have over 700K cases - current, incubating and recovered.  if CFR stays stable this is 7K+ dead by mid April and this assumes social distancing actually works. 

since i'm an amateur at this but friends with numbers, any other amateur/or otherwise epidemiologists please check my math. 
R0 2.5, CFR 1%, droplet and air xmit, fomite duration several hours - current infected population 80K.

if social distancing 'flattens the curve' it won't be until Early May before we see the numbers start to really drop.  This assumes Italy got hit much earlier than initially expected and triage is causing their elevated CFR.
Our Friends in Europe are on the same timeline and India, Australia and sub Saharan Africa are a week or two behind us.  After we get over this hump - case rates will oscillate like a bell tone for nearly a year.   If we get lucky, and a vaccine is deployed it will end in a couple of months.

  i hope i'm wrong - but we don't have long to wait to see if the numbers pan out.  best case in the USofA is 6k-7K dead.  this assumes no triage or critical supply shortages.  If we follow Italy just multiply this by 4.

[grizz]

We will never know the actual number of infected or were infected and now recovered because many just live with the flu and get better without going to the doctor.

All we have to calculate with is total known infected and total deaths

Deaths/known infected=%

This usually comes in around <1-2% range depending on the numbers used that hour and would be much lower if we actually had the total number infected vs the number of reported infections

[Nemo]

I am trying to figure that out.  But how do you get the known infected figure in there.  They are not done with the disease and will turn into the dead or recovered.  I calculate known completed the disease by recovery or death against dead for percentage.

I agree there are substantial unknown numbers out there and best available info is confirmed infected.  If we can figure out those infected but never treated, diagnosed or tested the rate will go down fast.

Grizz, I don't understand your factor basis of total infected methodology.  Please educate me.

Nemo

[Kbop]

yep Grizz, that's why i used number of deaths and worked backwards.  Number of deaths is easier to pin down and harder to fudge. 

this is looking like a 1%+ but under 2% CFR - my best foggy x-tal ball look for the next 15 days.

the final numbers will be a best guess, the error brackets will be smaller - as you mentioned Grizz, we'll never know how many are asymptomatic.

[grizz]

I am trying to figure that out.  But how do you get the known infected figure in there.  They are not done with the disease and will turn into the dead or recovered.  I calculate known completed the disease by recovery or death against dead for percentage.

I agree there are substantial unknown numbers out there and best available info is confirmed infected.  If we can figure out those infected but never treated, diagnosed or tested the rate will go down fast.

Grizz, I don't understand your factor basis of total infected methodology.  Please educate me.

Nemo

We will never know the total infected because some show very few if any symptoms or just tough it out without getting tested.

The only numbers we can confirm are those who test positive and those who die.

(pulling number out of the air)
1000 people in a room
500 are healthy (not tested but may be infected and never know it)
300 show no symptoms but feel slightly sick (not tested but may be infected)
200 show symptoms and get tested
Out of the 200, 100 test positive and two die

In my example above, potentially all 1000 people are infected but we only know about 100 who test positive and the two who died.

2% death rate is reported in the news and people start hoarding TP 

In reality its a .2% death rate and no big deal

[Nemo]

More info.

Nemo


https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/13/case-fatality-rate-coronavirus-severity/

Watch: Why reports about coronavirus death rates can be misleading
By Hyacinth Empinado @sayhitohyacinth
February 13, 2020   

CLICK LINK ABOVE TO WATCH THE 1:18 VIDEO

When a new disease starts to spread, the most pressing questions are: How deadly is this? And how many people are likely to die?

One way to measure the severity of disease is by calculating the case fatality rate, or CFR.

Watch the video above to find out more about how CFR is determined and how this relates to Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

[Kbop]

I'm ending my curve matching exercise now.
- my setpoint was 7K dead in the USofA by mid April.  We're 10 days away from mid April my other setpoint.

Either my initial guess about total # of infections was wrong or the CFR was wrong. - I agree with Grizz, i'm thinking the initial number of infections was off by an order(s) of magnitude.  We're just under the Italy & Spain curve - close enough to call it the same.  I now have 5 points of measurement - enough to get a ROM on the area under the curve.  the only other variable now is deus-ex-machina, say, novel treatment or vaccine.

But it eloquently shows the estimates - given by the US government - of total deaths in the US is way optimistic.  We're going to cross the triage line at a dead run on the up-curve.  There have already been heroic efforts by medical workers - but this is a marathon and we're only into the first sprint.  250k dead is the low end now.  High end may/will break 1M @ about a %70 probability.  something to remember - we'll double the number already affected on the down curve. 

the upside is that the virus probably won't kill more than %0.9 of the US population over the next year - 3 sigma - that's probably the worst case.  so we have our brackets.

if anyone wants to poke a hole in this -
calculus - algebra - simple statistics is all the math you need.
a basic understanding of geometric/exponential curves.
and worldometer numbers for daily tallies. - it has tracked pretty well with CDC and WHO numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

stay safe everyone.
I need a drink.

fun with numbers -
assume the current numbers of dead in the USofA is 1.5x the reported rate due to undiagnosed cases with involved SARS-2 infection.  Because of very restricted testing, this is our starting point.
reason - we know if someone with cardiovascular disease and COPD dies - they aren't tested.  CoD is complications due to COPD, namely bilateral pneumonia - even if CoViD-19 was a co-morbidity.  Similar story for T1 Diabetics, Chemo/Radiation patients, long term smokers and a few others.  Anyone prone to cytokine or immune system abnormalities.
lets multiply that by 100 (assumes average CFR is %1)
so total dead 573 X 1.5 = 859.5 multiplied by 100 is 85,000 cases minimum.
Case rate should double every 5 days for 2+ weeks.  if social distancing works we'll have over 700K cases - current, incubating and recovered.  if CFR stays stable this is 7K+ dead by mid April and this assumes social distancing actually works. 

since i'm an amateur at this but friends with numbers, any other amateur/or otherwise epidemiologists please check my math. 
R0 2.5, CFR 1%, droplet and air xmit, fomite duration several hours - current infected population 80K.

if social distancing 'flattens the curve' it won't be until Early May before we see the numbers start to really drop.  This assumes Italy got hit much earlier than initially expected and triage is causing their elevated CFR.
Our Friends in Europe are on the same timeline and India, Australia and sub Saharan Africa are a week or two behind us.  After we get over this hump - case rates will oscillate like a bell tone for nearly a year.   If we get lucky, and a vaccine is deployed it will end in a couple of months.

  i hope i'm wrong - but we don't have long to wait to see if the numbers pan out.  best case in the USofA is 6k-7K dead.  this assumes no triage or critical supply shortages.  If we follow Italy just multiply this by 4.

[grizz]

The past few days Italy and Spain have announced that their numbers are off because further testing reviled that ~85% of the people who died did so because of underling reasons such as high BMI and diabetes and just happened to have the cv19 flu at the same time.

[Kbop]

in rough figures;
about 1,200 people a day die from various causes in Spain (2018).  700 extra people a day are being are currently being added to that toll.  sure people with co-morbidity are included in the higher numbers - but the numbers are higher.

look at the diluting effect at work here.
in the USofA 7800 people a day pass away (2018).  CoVid-19 only added 3500 to that number.  Not a huge deal when spread over the country - say 1/3 higher.
here is another way to look at it - NY NY (the 5 boroughs) has one death about every 9 minutes.  Now (yesterday) it was about one every 2 minutes - a local increase of 4 times the norm.  The sky isn't falling - but it is a nasty storm blowing.

On the plus side, the numbers in Spain and Italy are still going up but at a slower rate. 

[Nemo]

Filters, N95 Masks, Gas Masks and all kinds of good, detailed info.  Lots I did not know, and did not know I did not know it.

Yeah, its a bit later than I would like to have found it.  But now know lots lots more than I did an hour (and a month) ago.

Nemo

https://www.gunsamerica.com/digest/coronavirus-masks-surgical-n95-explained-prepping-101

Coronavirus Masks – Surgical – N95 – Explained- Prepping 101
by Paul Helinski on February 2, 2020


If you are a follower of this column, you know that I have always said, ten years to early is better than one day late. In the case of masks for the coronavirus right now, it may be one day late. I seem to have found the last good deal on them, and it emptied out just as I started the livestream, above.

Where most people get confused about masks is in understanding the difference in filtration levels for relative threats.

A virus is roughly 100-300 nanometers accross, which is .1 – .3 micrometers, or microns.

A surgical mask filters at about 5 microns. So that is not even in the ballpark, but hang in there so I can explain the whole thing. As you have seen, half of China right now is wearing surgical masks, and it’s for a reason.

An N95 mask filters at .3 microns, 95% of the time. So that’s in the ballpark at least, but still not any guarantee that the filtration of an N95 mask is smaller than the size of whatever virus you are trying to avoid.

A gas mask is a whole other thing. The media in the filters attract particulate, so it isn’t just filtration. Even a regular Russian GP-5 NBC filter will filter viruses, and even gasses. The Mira filters, which are now called CBRN, I have included in this week’s SHOT Digest, and they even remove carbon monoxide at this point.

Now, with all of that in mind, you have to apply common sense. I know this is the internet where common sense is almost forbidden, so bear with me.

Filtration levels are not relevant when what you need to protect against is someone sneezing on you.

It isn’t like there is a cloud of virus in the air. A globule of phlegm, or even a fine spray of it, is always going to be larger than 5 microns. The CDC has even suggested that a T-shirt mask is effective against the spread of a virus.

The important thing is to try not to be breathing in if someone sneezes on you. You can’t always control this of course, which is why a good fitting N95 mask never hurts, , but even if you breath in, the chances of a globule of spit coming through even a tshirt, never mind a surgical mask, are small.

Viruses need a host to live. Even in a ball of phlegm, they won’t last more than a short while, often minutes, and certainly no more than a couple of hours. So you generally need not worry about viruses just hanging out in the air.

When does particulate size matter the most? When there is a cloud of fine dust. When there has been an aerial dispersal of something like anthrax. When you need to drink water out of a river, and there might be a harmful contagion in the water.

And of course, if you have to travel outside after a nuclear accident or bomb, the beta radiation that will be falling certainly should be filtered. This is the biggest reason why gas masks are not a waste of money, or something strictly for halloween costumes, Comicon, and weed bongs.

Otherwise, just use common sense, and completely ignore the armchair internetards who will tell you over and over again that an N95 mask is worse than wearing nothing if it is not fitted properly. Do you know what fitted properly is? Pinch the nose!

Without a genuine seal, as in a butyl rubber gas mask, or a positive pressure system like a fireman’s mask, no mask is going to completely protect you from a cloud of anything, especially once you start exhaling and it gets wet. That’s why they make gas masks.

As you can tell from the video, I was hoping to find you guys a score of N95 masks. I caught 10 boxes of 10 masks on Ebay for about $2 a mask right before I made the livestream. Someone cleaned them out shortly after, probably for resale. Now they seem to be $20 each at least.

There are however, as I write this, some neoprene masks on Amazon that come with activated carbon filters. Even though they are about what you will pay for an N95 right now, they are probably more durable, and are somewhat washable even. In China they call these PM 2.5 (meaning that they filter pollution down to 2.5 microns) filters, and here they call them N99.9, meaning that they filter 99.9% of “dust,” whatever that means.

Again, we are talking about a virus that is going to be trapped in a glob of phlegm, or spray, all of which can be seen with the naked eye. Even 10 microns, the size of pollen allergens, can’t be seen with the human eye. Just get something to reliably cover your breathing ports, and try not to breath in if someone is sneezing or coughing near you. Common sense! It’s still allowed sometimes in the 21st century, even online.

On editing this article for Thursday, the 5th, nothing I said above has any exceptions for a viral outbreak. There is no way, without a specialized bioweapon, to aeriolize 100 to 200 nanometer virus by themselves. A virus cannot live without some kind of host, that will be larger than 5 microns.

But video coming out of Wuhan seems to say that there may be more to it than your average virus. The picture below is from of a video, one of several, that show some kind of Chinese officials blowing some kind of decontaminate into empty storefronts. If this is DDT, or some kind of other delousing agent or something, we are now talking about bugs, or at least a parasite. It does not make sense, and you should do everything you can to make sure that you can stay in the house for at least a few weeks if this thing hits hard here. Nobody is rushing the stores right now. Just get going.

[gadget99]

Hi all,

I have been watching Coronavirus updates by Dr. John Campbell here in the UK for a while.

He has no skin in the game to mislead or anything. Good info in my opinion.

https://youtu.be/F39kVKSCP40

[Kbop]

Hi all,

I have been watching Coronavirus updates by Dr. John Campbell here in the UK for a while.

He has no skin in the game to mislead or anything. Good info in my opinion.

I'll second that -