Virus

[Jackalope]

Assess credibility.

Nemo

     There is a Nancy M working for the CDC, which adds some credence to the message.  TPTB don't want to panic the sheeple.  Once the populace wakes up, there will be a stampede. 

[Kbop]

i have a  question for the more epidemiological minded than I.

given that;
corvid19 death rate is pushing 2.5% - but the severe case rate is pushing 20%.

if this escapes into Africa - and the medical care isn't up to the task - is the death rate likely going to 20%?  I'm wondering, because of what Ebola and MERS did in more undeveloped areas.
 

[Jackalope]

    Watch the numbers in Vietnam, that might give an idea of how it'll progress in Africa. 

[grizz]

what are the odds it gets to the Mexican drug lords, any and all drug lords and their gangs, and wipes the out?

[Flash]

The coronavirus was developed by a professor at Harvard.  You can't believe any news about the virus coming out of china. They have the quarantines going on, but they are also welding doors shut to keep the populace from spreading it.

[DMCakhunter]

So as the bug continues to spread, the comment by grizz about drug lords made me remember that China claims they are disinfecting cash to reduce infection. How would they do that? Run it for 20 minutes or longer in a clothes dryer, UV light, chemical liquids or gases?
Most of the US currency has some traces of drugs on it so i assume a bug would also be able to be passed via cash transactions for a period of time before it would die.

[Nemo]

given that;
corvid19 death rate is pushing 2.5% - but the severe case rate is pushing 20%.
 

Total Deaths
2,361

Total Recovered
21,247

I look at those as the more accurate numbers. 

Given that  Total Confirmed is 77,917 that ones are not finished dealing with the disease and still have chances of dying from it, the numbers are closer to a 10% fatality rate.

As discussed let it get loose in Mexico or Pakistan or Central Africa.  With no medical care I think fatality rate would increase by a factor of 3, 4, 5 easily.

This goes widespread across the world I submit there will be 500 million plus casualties.

Get ready.

Nemo

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[JoJo]

 Don't eat the food in China!

Read complete story here.

 https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/02/24/expert-chinese-scientists-sell-lab-animals-meat-black-market/

 

Population Research Institute President Steven W. Mosher wrote at the New York Post on Saturday that China’s coronavirus epidemic could have been unleashed by researchers who sold laboratory animals to the notorious “wet markets” of Wuhan for extra cash.

Mosher is not the first skeptic of Beijing’s official coronavirus narrative to note the presence of an advanced microbiology lab near Wuhan, the city where the epidemic originated. Since the early days of the crisis, theories have suggested everything from the lab accidentally releasing the virus to speculation that the virus might have been deliberately designed as a biological weapon.

His theory cited as evidence the release of new guidelines from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology calling for “strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”

As Mosher pointed out, the facility near Wuhan is the only Level 4 microbiology lab in China, so the new directive was implicitly directed at the Wuhan facility, which further implies the Ministry of Science and Technology has reason to believe its containment procedures need to be strengthened.

 

[Jackalope]

    Supply shortages due to the virus are beginning to appear in pharmacies.  My spouse talked with a friend that's a pharmacist, and she said shortages are definitely occurring and they have no idea when or if they'll be restocked.  So... what's going to happen to all those folks that are on psychiatric meds?  Imagine thousands of violent schizophrenic patients suddenly going cold turkey.

    Once the virus gets going full steam, I imagine many of our first responders and their families may be incapacitated.  So police and fire departments will be under staffed.  Mix in violent crazies, or addicts looking for a way to get high and we'll have a deadly mess indeed.   

[Nemo]

You are keeping a view on the Dashboard aren't you?

Dr. Nicole Saphier referred it to as SARS/COVID 2 at 0847 today.   First time I have heard that name for it.

She also reported 3 new "unknown origin" cases in the U.S.  One was high school student who had been to school carrying the virus.  School closed for deep cleaning, but outside school activities continue.  Including basketball games this weekend will continue.

But remember, about 18,000 flu deaths this year.  As far as the death rate on diseases like this 6.9% flu deaths last week.  7.3% is considered threshold for epidemic.

This could be a flash in the pan or cure for global warming.  Either way, 3 Bs plus 2 is still a good idea  Be sure to add antiseptic stuff.

Nemo

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Kbop]

i think COVID19 has gotten into the wild.  Even if the WHO is saying there is no pandemic. 
looks like a high R0 but the mortality is about the same as this years flu. 
 

Nemo - SARS is that corona virus' name.  its number 2.
like the virus HIV, the disease is called AIDS.  HIV/AIDS.
some virus' have multiple presentations or disease actions. An example is varicella virus, it can cause chicken pox or shingles.  one virus two diseases - so VZV/chicken pox or VZV/HZ for shingles.

[Nemo]

More history and general info.

Nemo


https://threatjournal.com/archive/tj02292020.html

WEEKLY THREAT AND ALERT ROUNDUP
Published Each Saturday Afternoon
 
This scanning electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2 (round magenta objects) emerging from the surface of cells cultured in the lab. SARS-CoV-2, also known as 2019-nCoV, is the virus that causes COVID-19. - ALLOW IMAGES

CDC Warns Now is the Time to Prepare for COVID-19
Feb 29, 2020
Between Feb 22-28, the following related Flash SMS
messages were sent to AlertsUSA subscriber mobile devices:

2/28 - State Dept. issues Level 3 (Reconsider Travel) advisory for Italy due to sustained community spread of COVID-19 coronavirus. More via email.

2/28 - House of Reps members being advised to put plans in place for modified office ops in case of widespread COVID-19 infections in U.S. AlertsUSA monitoring..

2/28 - WHO: Assessment of risk of spread and risk of impact of COVID-19 now "VERY HIGH" at global level. Statement made at ongoing daily press briefing.

2/27 - US Central Command suspends leave & liberty for US service members and DoD civilian employees within the CENTCOM AOR to prevent transmission of COVID-19.

2/27 - US Navy orders all ships in the Pacific having visited WESTPAC nations to remain at sea for at least 14 days to monitor for symptoms of COVID-19. Developing..

2/27 - US Embassy Kenya issues security alert warning terrorist groups may be plotting attack against a major hotel in Nairobi. More info via email.

2/26 - State Dept. issues Level 3 Travel Advisory for S. Korea urging reconsideration of travel due to COVID-19 outbreak. See your email for more info.

2/26 - Pres Trump during ongoing press conference: "Every aspect of our society should be prepared," including schools, for the spread of coronavirus "just in case."

2/25 - 23 YO US soldier at Camp Carroll, S. Korea tests positive for COVID-19. KCDC & USFK health officials actively conducting contact tracing. More info via email.

2/25 - CDC formally says now is the time for businesses, hospitals, communities schools & individuals to begin preparing to respond to coronavirus. More via email.

2/24 - CDC issues Level 3 (Avoid Nonessential Travel) Travel Notice for S. Korea warning of widespread, ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 coronavirus. More via email.

2/24 - CDC issues Level 2 (Practice Enhanced Precautions) Travel Notice for Italy due to sustained community transmission of COVID-19 coronavirus. More via email.

2/24 - US Forces Korea raises risk level to "high" for USFK peninsula-wide after dependent living in Daegu tests positive for COVID-19 coronavirus. More via email.

2/23 - US Embassy Italy issues health alert rec avoiding multiple regions due to COVID-19 outbreak. Austria halts all rail service w/ Italy to limit spread. See email.

2/22 - Italian gov announces use of police & military to enforce strict lockdown / quarantine of ~11 municipalities w confirmed COVID-19 cases. Developing situation.

2/22 - State Dept issues Level 2 (Exercise Increased Caution) Travel Advisories for Japan and S. Korea due to an outbreak of COVID-19. More via email.

2/22 - CDC issues Level 2 (Practice Enhanced Precautions) Travel Notices for Japan and S. Korea due to sustained community transmission of COVID-19. More via email.

[Nemo]

Corona?  Disease X?  Ebola?

Bleeding from the eyes sounds like the latter.

Nemo

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/disease-x-feared-hit-ethiopia-21601531

'Disease X' feared to have hit Ethiopia as dying villagers 'bleed from eyes'
EXCLUSIVE: While the rest of the world is occupied with coronavirus, a gruesome mystery sickness is killing Ethiopians of all ages as hospital treatment appears ineffective
By Sophie Bateman, 12:14, 29 FEB 2020   Updated17:14, 29 FEB 2020


A mysterious and horrifying deadly illness killing villagers in Ethiopia could be the dreaded "Disease X".

A concept coined by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to describe a new unknown pathogen with the potential to cause an epidemic, scientists are constantly on the lookout for illnesses that fit the description.

Some believe coronavirus is Disease X, but the real answer could lie in East Africa.

"Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever" leaves people bleeding from their eyes, mouth, and anus.

The gruesome sickness, informally dubbed "bleeding eye fever", has a higher mortality rate than the plague and has mystified medical professionals for the past couple of years.

Cases were reported in South Sudan and Uganda in 2018, with dozens infected and at least four killed.

Now neighbouring country Ethiopia is grappling with similar horrific symptoms.

One 23-year-old victim first experienced his eyes and palms turning yellow, before he began bleeding from his nose and mouth and his body swelled up, the Guardian reports . He later died after collapsing with fever.

Many of his neighbours suffered the same symptoms and some died.

Other victims included a two-year-old boy in the town of Haarcad who died despite receiving multiple blood transfusions during a month-long hospital stay. He, too, had yellow eyes and palms, swelling and a fever.

.   .   .

continued

[gadget99]

Hi all,

Still alive and kicking here in the UK.

We do now have a community spread infected man here now. So things will most likely begin to heat up in the near future.

There is no panic here as of yet. Like most governments in the western world. The UK government is slow stepping their response as would be expected.

Unfortunately China appears to be one of the few countries that has the ability to enact rightfully draconian measures for containment. While many bad mouth China. I have to admire their robust response to the outbreak.

I had to remind my other half not to go down rabbit holes of theory or conspiracy on this virus. I told her that the mental effort is best used refining our families preparations for eventualities.

I will pop in as things develop to update when I can.

[Nemo]

Here comes the big spread.

Nemo

https://apnews.com/439fe91fdadce80450d87a70940462ae

Africa readies for new virus as cases confirmed on continent
By RODNEY MUHUMUZA and CARLEY PETESCHtoday

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Across Africa, steps are being taken to prepare for — and to reduce the effects of — the spread of the new coronavirus. Testing laboratories are being supplied, quarantine and hospital treatment facilities are being readied for patients, and public health advisories have been issued.

As of Monday, the continent of 1.2 billion people has eight confirmed cases of COVID-19 — three in Algeria, two in Egypt, one in Tunisia, one in Nigeria and one in Senegal. The case in Senegal was a French citizen who resides in Senegal and who had recently returned from France.

But 13 of Africa’s 54 countries have been identified by the World Health Organization as at risk of becoming centers for the disease on the basis of volume of traffic between China and weak health surveillance and treatment systems.

Nigeria on Friday became the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to report a confirmed case when an Italian citizen traveling from Milan on a business trip fell ill after arriving at Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city with 20 million people.

.   .   .

continued

[gadget99]

Hi all

The picture here in the UK is pretty confusing really.

The national health system is already stretched due to the normal winter spike in health problems and years of budget cuts. Yet the government is saying that they are prepared to handle things.

I am REALLY hoping I am wrong in this. Yet it appears that the government here has made a worrying  decision on its stance.

It appears that the government is more worried about the economic impact of taking active measures to reduce the spread now than public health concerns.

The talking heads keep hammering away at comparing this virus to the seasonal flu, as an example of why this virus is not that bad.

I fear that the government is thinking that it would be better to let this virus run its course through the population than interrupt the economy by taking containment measures.

Really glad the family is prepared to ride out whatever storm that may come.

[gadget99]

Hi all,

The UK government has after much fanfare released their plan for managing the Corona virus.

Instead of posting a review of the document.

Please find the publically available document attached to this post.

Now I do understand that it might seem daunting to spend a large amount of time reading this. One would expect a plan of this importance to be pretty large.

However the UK Government has been able to explain the plan in only 28 pages.

Thanks all.....http://cloud.tapatalk.com/s/5e5e9b195bbda/Coronavirus_action_plan_-_a_guide_to_what_you_can_expect_across_the_UK.pdf

[Nemo]

But wait till it gets going in Africa, Central, South, America, India, Southeast Asia.  Even if it only doubles that going to be a big number.

Nemo

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

Health and Science
WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought
Published Tue, Mar 3 20204:28 PM EST, Updated 19 min ago

Key Points

    World health officials say the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
    “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.

World health officials said Tuesday the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva. In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said.

The World Health Organization had said last week that the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it’s treated. Early in the outbreak, scientists had concluded the death rate was around 2.3%.

.   .   .

continued

[gadget99]

Hi all,

Frustrated over here in the UK big time.

Given what is happening in other countries Italy for example.

The UK Government is still taking no proactive response measures. They appear to be acting as if this is just another seasonal flu at this point.

I am pretty well flabbergasted by the stance. They keep touting that 80% will only have minor symptoms and only the elderly and compromised are at risk.

That does nothing to reassure me with two members of my four person family that fall in the at risk categories.

I do not care how this got started. I do not care if there are sinister plots afoot. I do however care that many governments to include the UK have decided to ignore the aged advice that to stop a pandemic you pull out all of the stops. Proactive containment saves lives.

I may get flamed a bit for my take on this. Yet I do find it unbelievably ironic that china is one of the countries that took huge steps for containment.

Yes I get the whole "you can't trust China" thing. Yes we probably do not have the whole truth on what happened there. But at least they present the picture that they indeed followed the steps people have recommended for pandemic response for decades now.

So what is the deal? Since BAD China responded this way, the west should take an opposite approach?

Just venting at the moment.

We are prepped and being as sensible as possible here. We are also aware that the consequences of the response here may lead to a cascade failure. So we are planning for a long hard time.

Better that as opposed to assuming as the majority of the influenced do that this is nothing to be concerned about. It is just a slightly worse seasonal cold. Keep calm and carry on.

Peace

All

[Kbop]

I hear you Gadget.
two models - China; fill the streets with LEO/MIL and enforce the quarantine and 'self isolation' rules with methods that would shock most people in the UK/EU/US.  Now their numbers are going down.

Second, South Korea - the government and the South Korean citizens cooperated to meet the threat.  Drive through testing, neighbors bringing each other food.  Voluntary self isolation.  People setting up white boards to leave messages, like who needed what or in one case two sick parents needing help with their children.  Now their new case numbers are leveling off - hopefully.

Lets see how it goes with Italy - They waited, too long in my opinion.  Now there is a price to pay.  Their plan was reactive.  At least the UK has a plan, even if reactive and not proactive.  In the USofA our president actually said, on camera, that people should go to work sick.  There will be a price to pay.

Stay Safe. 

[JoJo]

 He never said that!

 
Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
 I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work. This is just more Fake News and disinformation put out by the Democrats, in particular MSDNC. Comcast covers the CoronaVirus situation horribly, only looking to do harm to the incredible & successful effort being made!


 https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/05/president-trump-i-never-said-people-that-are-feeling-sick-should-go-to-work/

[Nemo]

Was forwarded this.  Cannot verify its accuracy.  Not sure if comical or insulting.  Primarily covers Europe with touch of Australia.

Nemo

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let's Get the Bastard.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbor” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crickey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

[gadget99]

It is so darn strange watching the way people are reacting.

To be honest there is a no win situation happening here.

Take aggressive measures to gain control and if you succeed you will be branded as overreacting.

Though to allow unrestricted transmission in order to keep the economy going and lessen social impact. Is one heck of a gamble as a plan. I think they are gambling on this dying down with warmer weather.

From the way the government here keeps hammering away at how many people die from the seasonal flu each year. I have the feeling that this ethereal number is being considered an acceptable lose for the Covid-19.

If the gamble works I will happily to proclaim myself wrong all day long.

If the gamble does not work. A certain percentage of the population have been written off as collateral damage.

[Jackalope]

    But warmer weather doesn't really effect the virus.  Look at Saudia Arabia and Thailand, both countries have relatively warm temperatures, and the virus keeps spreading.  The Chinese should be held accountable for starting this mess.

[Erick]

Still traveling internationally every month..
I cant hunker down, this is the highest salary I have ever had.

Every single month I save as much ,as previously i would have been lucky, to save up in a year.
Hope to be able to extend this gig thru the entire outbreak (which is currently uncertain)