Virus

[Nemo]

from China.  Might want to get that extra jar of peanut butter and stick of firewood or 2.

Nemo


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10784540/coronavirus-death-toll-wuhan-china/

KILLER BUG Coronavirus death toll DOUBLES to 17 as more than 470 cases of ‘mutating’ bug confirmed
Lizzie Parry, Tariq Tahir , 22 Jan 2020, 7:35Updated: 22 Jan 2020, 21:25

SEVENTEEN people have died from coronavirus as more than 500 cases of the killer strain were confirmed, officials have said.

Latest figures reveal 471 cases in China, with four in Thailand, two in Hong Kong and one each in the US, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.

There is also unconfirmed reports of a case in Mexico.

It comes as British experts said up to 10,000 people could already be infected - adding that we can't rule out the possibility" there could already be a case in the UK.

Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert at Imperial College London, said the new strain is currently "as deadly as the Spanish flu epidemic".

The 1918 outbreak is the most severe pandemic in recent history, wiping out an estimated 50 million people across the world.

Prof Ferguson warned of "more deaths to come" as fellow experts said the outbreak has reached the threshold for an international public health emergency - ahead of today's World Health Organization meeting on the issue.

The agency could declare the virus a global health crisis today as its experts rallied to hold an emergency meeting in Geneva today.
'THOUSANDS COULD BE INFECTED'

Officials are considering putting Wuhan - a city of 11 million, a larger population than London - on lockdown, with people being told to stop travelling and to avoid crowds.

It comes at one of the busiest times of the year in China as people prepare to celebrate the Lunar New Year holidays.

The '2019-nCoV' strain has spread to other countries and major cities including Beijing, Shanghai and southern Guangdong province.

Taiwan and the US were the latest countries to confirm a case of the lethal SARS-like virus - after Australian officials said a man tested amid fears he picked up the bug in China was clear.

The new strain has also hit South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Macau with the World Health Organization predicting it will continue to cross international borders in the coming days.

It comes as Chinese officials confirmed 'novel coronavirus' - which causes pneumonia - can be passed from person to person.

.   .   .

continued

[Erick]

...this has never been attempted before by any gov't anywhere.
As of this morning almost 20 million quarantined in three cities.

Almost makes one think the infected and death numbers they been giving us were low by a couple orders of magnitude.. otherwise ..why bother with such a disruptive, politically risky (biggest holidays in China are right now) and expensive step?

Or... it could be they just dont want to have egg on their face like they did with SARS where there response was months late and half hearted.. and it spread to 37 different countries (also a coronavirus BTW)

[Nemo]

I have seen reports this is primarily a reptilian sourced virus that is air transmissible.

Make that 2 jars of peanut butter and a good ax sharpening stone.

Nemo

[JohnyMac]

Maybe Erick you can answer this question...Why do a lot of these virus's come from China?

[Jackalope]

Why do a lot of these virus's come from China?

Though I haven't been to China, my spouse has spent years there, in Mongolia, and other Asian countries.  I've spent some time in the Middle East and in a couple Asian countries.  From our experience, the level of sanitation in China and most of the third world countries is no wheres close to what we have here.  Live animals are often in the open markets, waiting for buyers, along with all their urine, manure and whatever.  The markets are highly unsanitary.  Plus there's the high population levels, along with everyone in close proximity to one another (Think rats in cages).  So any type of viral infection is going to run rampant in the population. 

It should also be noted that Wuhan is the site of a Level 4 Bioresearch lab too, though that may be nothing.  http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/04/c_136872077.htm

I guess we'll know within the next week whether this is going to be a big one.  I'm inclined to lay in some extra chicken feed, and other last minute preps.  It certainly can't hurt.

[JohnyMac]

Jackalope wrote, It should also be noted that Wuhan is the site of a Level 4 Bioresearch lab too, though that may be nothing.

Yeah, my tin foiled hat was thinking this too.

[mechmedic]

Population and lack of sanitation definitely contribute to spread of disease. Just look at Europe during the plague. Clean, running water and sewage systems have done more for our health than modern healthcare.

[Erick]

I reiterate, the extreme Chinese gov't response still does not make sense to me (now over 10 cities and 40 million people as of 10 hrs ago).
Not based on the numbers they are submitting to WHO that is...

- They have nearly double the amount of people die by the Flu (averaged per day) in a single day! ..than all month so far in this outbreak ( as reported last nite)
- They have about the same number of traffic fatalities per day as deaths so far for the entire month!

- This response is costing them tens of billions if it keep going it will impact China's GDP for the year in a measurable way.
- Also Today is the start of the Chinese lunar new year.. All year hard working Chinese wait , often for their ONLY opportunity for the year to go home and see their families. The are 10s of millions of workers who will not not see their family for yet another year.
So why?

There are 3 possibilities:

- They deliberately overreact because the bitter criticism they received for under reacting during SARS still stings and they feel they have something to prove.
- Incompetence.. the old men of the politburo ( or whatever they call it there) got panicked when some young doctor too enthusiastically briefed the threat and now they are all Gung-Ho on a "The walking Dead" type response. 
- The Pathogen is much more dangerous than they are letting on and the published numbers are false. Not just a little false.. but way off... either the R factor is much higher.. or the lethality is much higher.. and they know this and this explains their response.

 The severity of their response has never before been done by any Govt. before..

I am not ringing alarm bells. Any one of those 3 explanations in plausible and only one of the 3 would be cause for concern..
We will know more in the coming months.

[grizz]

FWIW I heard this morning that 2 Americans in the states are currently infected

[pkveazey]

Well, I never expected plague to be the big prepper problem, but I'm glad I prepped for it. I live in a rural area which might help a bit, but We have several biohazard suites and masks and rubber gloves, both types. We've got a crap load of Alcohol and Hydrogen Peroxide to sterilize stuff. I hope I don't need that stuff because I'm too old to fight off that serious an infection.

[Nemo]

PK, worst case load up and head 100 miles west.  Things probably ok on the med stuff here.  Turns out they are not for you, you will get a real nice cremation.

Nemo

[Jackalope]

    Why would the Chinese government quarantine 46 million people for 40-50 deaths?   I've seen reports of over 10,000 dead: https://gellerreport.com/2020/01/coronavirus-death-toll.html/   If that's the case, then this is truly a bad situation. 

[Nemo]

China seems to be letting news out.

Nemo

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/01/24/china-confirms-wuhan-virus-infections-provinces/

BREITBART
China Confirms Wuhan Virus Infections in over 90% of Provinces

Chinese state media confirmed on Friday that the coronavirus, spreading from the city of Wuhan, has now infected 29 of China’s 31 provinces, a concession critics will likely take as confirmation that the Chinese government has not been honest about how rapidly the disease is spreading.

Increasingly draconian measures taken abruptly to combat the virus, such as effectively quarantining Wuhan and several other cities, convey the impression of a crisis that is much more serious than Beijing wanted to admit.

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) media claim there have only been 895 confirmed cases of infection and 26 deaths, but these sources now admit the infection has spread across the mainland, and some of the reported deaths have occurred far beyond the Wuhan epicenter of the epidemic.

Furthermore, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Friday quoted sources who said the Chinese government is still dramatically under-reporting the number of doctors and nurses who have contracted the virus while treating patients.

As of Friday, Beijing officially stopped treating the Wuhan virus like a minor problem it had well in hand, as the SCMP reported:

    In response to the rapidly growing number of infections, China had shut down outbound transport from 13 cities and counties in Hubei by Friday morning, according to China National Radio.

    Health officials have warned on nationwide broadcasts that people should avoid traditional family reunions and other public gatherings during the Lunar New Year period that starts on Saturday.

    […]

    Confirmed cases of the new coronavirus have been found in several Asian countries, as well as the United States. New infections were confirmed on Friday in South Korea and Japan, while Singapore and Vietnam declared their first cases on Thursday. Other places outside mainland China reporting individuals carrying the virus were Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.

Chinese citizens living in the outbreak area describe a health care system completely overwhelmed by coronavirus cases, with hospitals so overcrowded that patients are sent home and told to wait days for treatment.


continued

[Nemo]

From Drudge.   This almost looks like it could be a big one.  Really Big.

Below is their big headline section.   If you have ever visited you know what I refer to.  If not, go there-- http://drudgereport.com/

Nemo


OUTBREAK SPREADS
https://apnews.com/09be6cd295bc66a335e6686da6bbbffb

40 MILLION QUARANTINED
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-e2-80-99s-unproven-antiviral-solution-quarantine-of-40-million/ar-BBZiafT


CASE IN CHICAGO
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/01/24/first-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-chicago/


22 STATES ON ALERT
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/cdc-confirms-second-us-case-of-coronavirus-chicago-resident-diagnosed.html

 
EUROPE HIT
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-outbreak-hospital-to-be-built-in-five-days-as-death-toll-rises-in-china-11916211

[Erick]

People there ARE no 10,000 dead in Wuhan.
Commercial Satellites would pick up the burn pits or mass burials.
Never mind MILSAT.
It would be all over the Cartelmedia and international outlets as well.

[Erick]

   1) Why would the Chinese government quarantine 46 million people for 40-50 deaths?   
2)I've seen reports of over 10,000 dead: https://gellerreport.com/2020/01/coronavirus-death-toll.html/   If that's the case, then this is truly a bad situation.

1) Thats my point
2) This however is incorrect. 

[Nemo]

More details (likely no links came along, sorry) from related section on Drudge.

Nemo

VIRUS: RACE TO BUILD HOSPITAL...

'THIS TIME I'M SCARED'...

DOCTORS COLLAPSE...

Nurse says quarantine failing...

Video shows dead bodies in halls...

MCDONALD'S SHUTS... DISNEYLAND SHUTS...

Military Deployed...

Pandemic Simulation Predicts 65 Million Could Die...

BUG ESCAPED FROM LAB?

[Erick]

Some nuances:
- Yes there is some potential here IMHO more than the Ebola outbreak of 2014
But it is not anywhere  time yet to head for the hills.

In the meantime since we are all in the mood for it.. here is a oldie but a goodie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQXqZ8JJktw

Ha I found the complete 4 part series ! (it seems they cut out all the music though for copyright)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Nf9yCgdNNI

[Nemo]

Another news source/report.

Nemo


https://www.libertynation.com/exclusive-coronavirus-the-facts-you-are-not-being-told/

Exclusive: Coronavirus – The Facts You Are Not Being Told

Chinese checkers with Coronavirus.
By: Mark Angelides January 23, 2020
Please respect our republishing guidelines - Click Here   FYI-- https://www.libertynation.com/republishing-guidelines/

Editor’s Note: The author of this article lived and worked in mainland China for more than a decade and speaks Mandarin.

Chinese authorities suggest that the Coronavirus situation in Wuhan is being handled and that they have things under control with a team of the world’s top scientists in place. Interestingly enough, Wuhan happens to be the place in China best-suited to dealing with this kind of issue. Situated in the heart of the city is the country’s top disease research center, a BioSafety Level 4 (BSL-4) laboratory.

There are only several of these centers in Asia, and only one in China. A BSL-4 site is used for research and handling of deadly microbes and infectious agents for which there is either no cure or only an unreliable cure. What a fortunate coincidence that the only place in the entire nation that handles such dangerous viruses just happens to be in the middle of the city that has so recently experienced one.

A Crisis in Waiting

Dr. Guan Yi, who initiated the research into the SARS outbreak in 2003, has been to Wuhan. Upon returning to Hong Kong, he immediately isolated himself, telling Caixin News, that this Coronavirus strain, and the spreading of it, could be ten times more severe than that of SARS.

Chinese New Year is the biggest celebration in a country of 1.4 billion people. Each year, millions leave the city they work in and travel to their hometowns for fireworks, dumplings, and the ever-welcome “Hongbao” (red envelopes containing money). But this year, the year of the rat, they may be taking home a lot more than just festive spirit.

There quite literally could not be a worse time of year for this outbreak to happen. Chinese authorities have not only acted slowly, but they have also failed to take into account the mass movement of people around the country, including from Wuhan – a city of more than 11 million people – that occurs every year around this time.

The city of Wuhan is now in lockdown, along with several other Chinese cities.  But is the genie already out of the bottle?
Too Little, Too Late

Vietnam, Thailand, the U.S., Japan, Singapore, and South Korea all have confirmed infections. Russia, Scotland, and others have suspected cases. So far, the mortality rate appears to be under 5%, but with confirmation that it can pass human to human with minimal contact, there is a severe risk of this spreading beyond a controllable net.

The main problem is that the Coronavirus has an average of a seven-day incubation period, meaning that those who are infected may not even feel any symptoms for a week or more. The World Health Organization (WHO) is in the process of deciding whether to declare this a “public health emergency of international concern.”

WHO has known about this virus since the end of 2019, and is only now formulating an official policy response (already 24 hours behind schedule). When this crisis is over, there needs to be a full inquiry into both China’s role in the events and the WHO’s lackadaisical response.

[Nemo]

Pirate ship ahoy.

Nemo

[Nemo]

Seems this might grow into a big one.  Even at 65 million casualties thats only about 1% of the world population.  Not a big deal.

Unless it really gets going in Africa, Mid East, Western Hemisphere south of Rio Grande.  Then a really big deal there, still no so much here I suspect.

Nemo



https://news.yahoo.com/health-experts-issued-ominous-warning-170400102.html

Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. Their simulation showed it could kill 65 million people.
[Business Insider] insider@insider.com (Aria Bendix),Business Insider•January 24, 2020

    A coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.

    The virus has been reported in at least eight other countries, including the US, where a man in Washington who recently visited China was confirmed to have the illness.

    A scientist at Johns Hopkins last year modeled what would happen if a deadly coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65 million people could die within 18 months.

    Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, wasn't shocked when news of a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, surfaced in early January.

Less than three months earlier, Toner had staged a simulation of a global pandemic involving a coronavirus.

Coronaviruses typically affect the respiratory tract and can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold. A coronavirus was also responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China, which affected about 8,000 people and killed 774 in the early 2000s.

"I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus," Toner said.

The outbreak in Wuhan isn't considered a pandemic, but the virus has been reported in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia. The US reported its first case on Tuesday: a man in his 30s living in Washington's Snohomish County, north of Seattle, who recently visited China.

.   .   .

substantially continued

[pkveazey]

Hmmmmm…… Who are we supposed to believe? There was a Dr. on the news tonight that said the Coronavirus was the same virus as the common cold. However, there are several mutations that are really bad. Oh, that makes me feel a lot better,(Sarcasm). He said it was like comparing a horse to a zebra. One is commonplace and the other is really rare, even though they are pretty much the same animal. OK, I'll just wait and see what happens. Lets just see if the zebra runs amuck.

[Erick]

Hmmmmm…… Who are we supposed to believe? There was a Dr. on the news tonight that said the Coronavirus was the same virus as the common cold. However, there are several mutations that are really bad. Oh, that makes me feel a lot better,(Sarcasm). He said it was like comparing a horse to a zebra. One is commonplace and the other is really rare, even though they are pretty much the same animal. OK, I'll just wait and see what happens. Lets just see if the zebra runs amuck.

The common cold is caused by as many as 200 different viruses.
There is no "Common Cold Virus"
The most "common" virus to cause the "Common Cold" is a Rhinovirus (60-70% of "Common Cold" infections caused). This is a different class than a  Coronavirus.

Medical Doctors are for fixing broke people. They are not necessarily Biologists (anymore that is.... their original training in Biology is actually quite thorough... but after 10-20 years people forget)

No matter who you are .. it doesnt hurt to check references.. in Science BTW Wikipedia is usually quite good, because so many guys look for errors all the time (I think I found a small error on a unrelated chemistry page.. will triple check before I send it in though):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold

[Erick]

I been watching thse guys for years... consider them a good source that I pay attention to more than the WaPo or NYT etc..
This might be the nuanced social media "leak" we been looking for.

Still watching the vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=emb_logo

PS: I am going food shopping after this.. nothing crazy but it cant hurt and i have plenty of $$ to spend

[Jackalope]

    I think this is a very serious situation.  It's not a localized event, it's global.  The infection rate is much higher than we've been led to believe, and the death toll is substantially higher too.  The two week incubation period has me very concerned, and the R rate is higher than a typical cold or flu.  No country is adequately prepared for what's coming.  I think we're going to see political instability raise its head.  If Trump decides to formally close the borders, and the Democrats oppose it, we may see a tidal wave of opposition against the Democrats.  It will be a slaughter.  To add to the woo factor, I saw a report that indicated the virus did not indeed begin at the Wuhan market.  With the Level 4 bioresearch lab in Wuhan, it does make one wonder.  Oh yeah, there are also Chinese rumors that the Americans planted the virus.  And a patent was also issued on the coronavirus several years ago.  Lots of rumors, which makes it more difficult to learn the truth.

    What about the possible loss of infrastructure, i.e., electricity, water, etc.?  There will be interruptions of the just in time delivery systems, as workers fall ill, or just refuse to work.  Since the illness is global in nature, there won't be any white knights coming to save the day.  Each country will be on their own, and each tribal unit will need to fend for themselves as resources become scarcer.

     At this point, I believe that everything we're hearing regarding the number of infections and the number of deaths is a lie.  Governments are attempting to keep their populaces calm.  Personally, on my SHTF meter, I thinking a 5-7, with 10 being the extinction of humans.  The medical system does not have capability to deter this illness avalanche.

      As the infection spreads, we will self-quarantine.  I don't see any other options.  Any suggestions?