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Author Topic: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.  (Read 1004 times)

Offline Erick

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Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« on: January 24, 2018, 05:54:22 PM »
I will go out on a limb and call it ...even though the prime flu season is still ahead of us (and with it lots of infections/deaths)

It's going to fizzle.

Reasons:
- Infections should be more widespread at this point... we should have had hospitals cross decking in every single major city. Its not happening.
- Lethality rate seems around 1% which is not enough to be a society crasher.

Remember mutations if anything will be less lethal not more lethal due to the evolutionary pushes experienced in a  peacetime society.
For a Flu to be a society ender it has to hit hard right away with high infectiousness factors and high lethality right in the beginning and we are not seeing high enough numbers here despite the occasional young+healthy falling.

At this point I believe we have enough data to support these conclusions even though the season will still get worse before it gets better.
And while a worse outcome at this point is still possible its simply not likely..

So this is in my opinion the current most likely outcome.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2018, 11:15:28 PM by Erick »
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Offline Jackalope

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2018, 06:33:20 PM »
Thank you for the assessment, and your justification, Erick.  Spring can't arrive soon enough!
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gadget99

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2018, 10:40:52 PM »
Thank you for this Eric.

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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2018, 11:27:12 PM »
Cool man. Thx for your expertise.  :cheers:
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2018, 01:41:55 AM »
Well, I know I got it and it wern't fun.  First time I caught it in near forever and I were plain out of commission.  Might not kill most of us here but you will not stand the ramparts.  Wash your hands, stay home, don't let other people breathe on you.

Nemo
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Offline Erick

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2018, 08:05:43 PM »
Quote from: Nemo on January 25, 2018, 01:41:55 AM
Well, I know I got it and it wern't fun.  First time I caught it in near forever and I were plain out of commission.  Might not kill most of us here but you will not stand the ramparts.  Wash your hands, stay home, don't let other people breathe on you.
Nemo

My take exactly  :thumbsUp:
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2018, 06:23:36 PM »
On the way home from the Syracuse airport I heard on the news that the flu has gotten to a level that hospitals are full in the Syracuse area. What is full, I haven't a clue. However, a news report in Binghamton NY, last week stated that people were lined up in the halls on gurneys and they were looking for additional space to house none life threatening folks with the flu.

I have a good old fashion cold that I picked up Vegas. No flu here.
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Offline JoJo

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2018, 09:25:27 PM »
  @JM I was in the hospital two weeks ago and there were people lined up in the hall's
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2018, 07:24:05 AM »
JoJo, hopefully you are OK now.  :cheers:
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Offline JoJo

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Re: Flu: Ok I will go out on a limb here and call it.
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2018, 09:58:17 AM »
Quote from: JohnyMac on January 30, 2018, 07:24:05 AM
JoJo, hopefully you are OK now.  :cheers:

It started with a cold that lasted six weeks, congestion got so bad I couldn't breath causing a virus in my lungs. Keep an eye on your cold and don't be afraid to go to the doctors. 
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