1918 Flu Pandemic Anniversary

[Nemo]

I just finished about a 10 day bout with the one we got going this yeart.  First time I have ever gotten it to any extent.  Be careful on that gents.  And remember its exactly 100 years ago that 20-50 million died.

Should this one go pandemic it anticipated to be 200-400 million casualties worldwide.  Be careful out there, be ready.

Nemo

https://www.wsj.com/articles/were-not-ready-for-the-nextflu-pandemic-1516372986

Only first 1/3 of article, go read it all.

An Action Plan for Averting the Next Flu Pandemic
This year’s flu outbreak is unusually bad, but it could be much worse. It’s time to accelerate a range of public-health measures, including work on a universal vaccine
By Jonathan D. Quick, Jan. 19, 2018 9:43 a.m. ET

This year’s flu season is hitting early and hard, the worst the U.S. has seen in more than a decade. Every day more people are falling ill and getting hospitalized, and some are dying, including young children. Though we are not yet at the peak of flu season, schools have closed in communities across 49 infected states. Businesses can expect employee absenteeism to soar, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expect the death toll to rise.

The outbreak has thrown the health-care system into turmoil, with some hospitals unable to treat the people flocking to emergency rooms and clinics. Crucial supplies are running low across the nation, including lifesaving ventilators, and staff shortages are deepening as nurses and other personnel fall ill.

.  .  .

AND



https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/01/18/new-study-shows-flu-may-be-spread-just-by-breathing/

A new study shows that flu may be spread just by breathing.
By Tracy Seipel | tseipel@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group
PUBLISHED: January 18, 2018 at 10:24 am | UPDATED: January 19, 2018 at 6:59 am

Until now, most people thought you caught the flu after being exposed to droplets from an infected person’s coughs or sneezes, or by touching contaminated surfaces.

But a study released Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reveals that we may pass the flu to others just by breathing.

The study — which included researchers who are now working at San Jose State University and UC Berkeley — offers new evidence on the importance of the flu’s airborne qualities and how it can easily be transmitted to others. Researchers found large quantities of infectious viruses in the breath exhaled by those suffering from the flu.

“The study findings suggest that keeping surfaces clean, washing our hands all the time, and avoiding people who are coughing does not provide complete protection from getting the flu,” Sheryl Ehrman, who is now dean of the College of Engineering at San Jose State University, said in a statement. “Staying home and out of public spaces could make a difference in the spread of the influenza virus.”

Ehrman said the study was launched at the University of Maryland during the flu season of December 2012 through March 2013.  Researchers including Jovan Pantelic, who now works at UC Berkeley, recruited 178 volunteers, mostly students, who had shown flu symptoms within three days of the flu’s onset.

Over those four months, researchers captured and characterized the flu virus in 142 of the volunteers with confirmed cases of the flu while they breathed naturally, talked, coughed or sneezed.

The researchers then assessed the severity of naturally occurring flu aerosols — tiny droplets that stay suspended in the air for a long time.

The study’s participants provided 218 swabs from their nasopharynx, the upper part of the throat that lies just behind the nose. They also provided 218 samples — over a period of 30 minutes — of exhaled breath, spontaneous coughing, and sneezing on the first, second, and third days after the onset of flu symptoms.

The analysis of the infectious virus recovered from these samples showed that a significant number of flu patients routinely shed an infectious virus into tiny aerosol particles that can be transmitted through the air.

Surprisingly, the study suggested that coughing or sneezing was not necessary to be infectious.

“We found that flu cases contaminated the air around them with infectious virus just by breathing, without coughing or sneezing,” Dr. Donald Milton, professor of environmental health in the University of Maryland School of Public Health, said in a statement.

“People with flu generate infectious aerosols even when they are not coughing, and especially during the first days of illness,” he said. “So when someone is coming down with influenza, they should go home and not remain in the workplace and infect others.”

The researchers believe that their findings could be used to improve mathematical models about the risk of airborne flu transmission from people with flu symptoms, and may help control and reduce the impact of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

Improvements also could be made to ventilation systems to reduce transmission risk in offices, school classrooms and subway cars, for example, the study said.

For now, the researchers — and public health experts — say everyone should heed the advice to stay home, if possible, when they’re starting to come down with the flu to prevent the virus from spreading.

And while getting a flu vaccine isn’t a guarantee that you won’t get the flu, experts say it provides some protection and helps reduce the chances that you’ll get seriously ill from the flu.

[JohnyMac]

Erick, what have you been hearing?

I was just listening to the radio and the local station reported that the hospitals in the area are getting filled-up with flu patients. The powers to be are looking at moving the existing patients that are improving to other facilities. What other facilities you may ask...Who knows.

[JoJo]

 I was in the emergency room Fri and Sat, I got a bed Sat afternoon. There were people in beds in the hall ways. It's bad out there.  

[Nemo]

What other facilities you may ask...Who knows.

As bad and widespread as this is getting we better let the govt start organizing it, under direction of FEMA.  They have lots of facilities.

Nemo

[Erick]

Erick, what have you been hearing?

I was just listening to the radio and the local station reported that the hospitals in the area are getting filled-up with flu patients. The powers to be are looking at moving the existing patients that are improving to other facilities. What other facilities you may ask...Who knows.

Nemo: Good post and links

JohnyMac:
Three of my major pandemic toggles have been toggled.

-Its offically an epidemic.
-Healthy young adults died
-Hospitals overfilling to the point where some crossdecking of patients is happening.

We are not quite there yet with infection %ages yet though..

Its an epidemic but not yet an extreme event of the type we have all been expecting.
At this point this can not be precluded and I going to send a synopsis to my prepper group this weekend.

Cliffnotes:
-No need to panic we do not have infection rates yet that make this "The event"
- But caution since a couple of key milestones have been reached that a major event would have to reach.

At this point I would cancel skiing trips etc. but not stop showing up to work.
Shopping is still safely possible.
 
Caution at gas stations: those handles NEVER get cleaned.
Handle the gas station handle with a rag or papertowel only.
Clean hands afterwards.

I'll update as I can get info.

[JohnyMac]

Erick wrote, "Caution at gas stations: those handles NEVER get cleaned.
Handle the gas station handle with a rag or papertowel only.
Clean hands afterwards."

Roger on that one. Add to that list of common things we touch...

> Enter buttons at the pump and AMT Machines. I usually wear gloves or were not feasible I use my index knuckle.
> Door handles to stores. I open using my pinkie if I am not wearing gloves.
> Wash my hands with antibio soap when I/we come home. We are religious about it.
> Bringing a small bottle of antiseptic hand lotion with me for the trip out/back/while there in Vegas.

Thx erick!

[Erick]

Here is a copy of the email I just sent to my prepper group:

All,

As you all know I am not an alarmist and dont believe this is "The event" we all been waiting for.
However some increased vigilance is warranted.

As you all know there are  a couple of Hallmarks that need to be toggled before we get concerned.

All but the last one have been toggled

a) Healthy young adults have died, often very quickly. This is reminiscent of the Spanish Flu of 1918. Keep in mind that (almost) all circulating Flu strains since 1918 are genetic descendants of the Spanish Flu of 1918. However this strain (unlike the pandemic of 1918) has not shown a PREFERENCE for healthy adults.

b) Some hospitals in major cities are crossdecking patients. This is another necessary but not sufficient condition of an epidemic that gets bad enough to shut down society

c) Its been declared an "Epidemic" by official sources. Those tend to wait until its very clear until they make such a pronouncement.

d) My last condition which is triple digit deaths in at least a half dozen major US cities each, has NOT yet been been fulfilled.

My recommendations are as follows:

- Use common sense anti infection precautions as available from public health and also as discussed at our CBRN seminars.
- Do not schedule unnecessary trips, especially those that involve flights.
- Exercise extreme caution when going in to areas that feature crowds or were you must touch common surfaces. Doors at stores or especially gas pump handles. (Those NEVER get cleaned).. use a papertowl wrapped around the handle or have wet wipes handy in car.

For everyone's information w/o the pressure of a wartime environment, selection pressure tends to evolve milder strains not more lethal strains in a peacetime society.
How/why? In WW1 the mild cases would just stay in the lines.. the severe cases would be transported to the rear and warehoused in tight conditions with wounded and other immunocompromised folks.. This would supercharge the spread of the more virulent strains and disadvantage mild strains..So back then there was selection pressure towards increased virulence.

Our current civilian society does the opposite..... severe cases will stay home ( stopping transmission and exerting selective pressure against the severe strains) and mild cases go to work (to infect others exerting selective pressure in favor of these milder strains).

Incidentally I caught what I believe to be this strain of Influenza myself on my flight back to Virginia from Oklahoma City.

I was unusually ill in early/mid December, even couldnt walk for a day or so (a hallmark of Influenza, generally if you are walking around doing stuff throughout your disease progression you generally only have a cold, not Influenza)), etc,... I even caught a secondary lung infection which I also cured out w/o the help of drugs or professional medical assistance and am fine now.

So this very survivable even w/o medical help for the vast majority of PPL and we are not (yet) one step away from "The Walking Dead" but I believe common sense should be exercised at this point.
When in doubt visit an MD.

I will continue to monitor the pandemic surveillance systems and will let the gang know if the outlook darkens.

Cheers,

[JohnyMac]

Thank you brother for that complete update.

[Kbop]

Thanks for the well informed info!
 

[JoJo]

 Healthy are dying.

http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/terrifying-flu-season-gets-even-worse-strange-new-trend-victims




 

Terrifying Flu Season Gets Even Worse With Strange New Trend In Victims

January 20, 2018 By Brian Thomas

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This flu is already proving to be unusually deadly, as young, healthy people die within days of the first symptoms.

Ordinarily, the flu is hardly life threatening for anyone who’s not an infant or a senior.

This season, however, is different. On top of the vulnerability to normally at-risk populations, young, healthy adults are affected more severely than usual.

Among them was a 38 year-old Fox 8 Cleveland reporter, who passed unexpectedly three weeks ago.

Fox 8 Cleveland reports:

    A 40-year-old mother and marathon runner from California; a 21-year-old fitness fanatic from Pittsburgh; and one of FOX 8’s own, Kathleen Cochrane DePiero, here in Cleveland have all passed away from influenza escalating into septic shock.

    “It happened so fast and that’s what’s so puzzling to everybody,” said Dean DePiero, Kathleen’s husband.

    Although grieving, the former Parma mayor and Aurora law director sat down with FOX 8’s Suzanne Stratford and shared what happened in an effort to save lives.

    He says Kathleen developed a slight cough and wasn’t feeling well.

    She figured it was the flu and that it would pass with over-the-counter medications, fluids and rest.

    However, less than 36 hours later on December 30, she was rushed to the hospital and passed away at just 38 years old.

    “The doctors, nurses and EMTs worked so hard to try and save her and I thank them for that, but it just happened so quickly,” said Dean, as his eyes welled with tears.

The current flu strain is so aggressive, doctors are warning anyone who experiences the very first symptoms to seek medical attention immediately.

According to the CDC, this flu season is also causing more deaths in children than would normally be expected this time of year. With months of flu season to go, there have already been 30 pediatric deaths. Among them, Nico Mallozzi, a 10 year-0ld hockey player from New Canaan, Connecticut.

The CDC also reports that more people sought care for flu symptoms last week than any comparable period in nearly a decade, and over 8,900 people have been hospitalized since the season’s beginning.

Fox 8 Cleveland continues:

    Signs the flu is worsening and might be becoming sepsis include an inability to intake fluids, an inability to urinate, difficulty breathing, rapid heartbeat, a fever that is unresponsive to anti-inflammatory medicines and extreme lethargy.

    “They’re just not behaving like they should,” said Dr. Edwards. “Everybody that is sick doesn’t have energy, but these people are typically laid out.”

    Also, people with asthma or COPD are at higher risk.

    Prevention is key.

    Dr. Edwards recommends people wash their hands frequently, get plenty of rest and eat a healthy diet.

    She also advises everyone to get the flu shot.

    Although the flu shot has only been 30% effective this season in terms of preventing the flu, she says it can reduce serious complications like pneumonia that can lead to sepsis.

A flu vaccination may prevent catching the flu altogether, but even if it doesn’t always prevent catching the virus, it will reduce symptoms.

Stay safe, and take extra precautions this season.

[Jackalope]

I keep a container of hand sanitizer in my vehicle, which is immediately used after I've pumped gas.  I also use it after going to the supermarket, those push cart handles are covered with all kinds of nasties.  There was a study done a decade or so ago, and ecoli and other viral/bacterial elements were commonly found on push cart handles.  It didn't help yesterday when I went to the supermarket and the customer in front of me and the checkout girl were both obviously sick.

Viruses and their accompanying epidemics probably frighten me the most because they're so difficult to detect, and so difficult to fight once you are infected.  I guess total social isolation is the only method that's nearly 100% effective.

[JoJo]

 Another tip. When I use the men's room before I wash my hands I pull the lever for the paper towels then wash and then use the towel to dry and open the door.

[gadget99]

As per usual Eric you provide a great service to the community.

Thank you for the update.

At this point we are seeing pretty much the exact thing with the flu over here in the UK.

We are being vigilant, yet are not to worried at the moment.

While this flu season is harsher than most. It does not seem to have the hallmarks of the Pandemic that we have been watching out for.

Cheers all.

[Erick]

Erick, what have you been hearing?

I was just listening to the radio and the local station reported that the hospitals in the area are getting filled-up with flu patients. The powers to be are looking at moving the existing patients that are improving to other facilities. What other facilities you may ask...Who knows.

Hospitals have been crossdecking for a while now.
Thats always been one of the neccessary (but not sufficient) conditions to get out of dodge.

The deathrate from this flu must still be relatively low.

The direct threat from it is not high nearly enough to bug out at this time.
When people start staying home from work in significant numbers and goods become short as a result then we can consider it.

A flu epidemic has a fairly long phase 1 (phasing as discussed elsewhere on here) so there is no hurry.
The threat to our life from the disease is small but if  a panic ensues that collapses society thats the real threat.

So when a collapsing society becomes evident then we go.