China: Tiananmen Square Redux

[JohnyMac]

As we all come back to the real world this Monday morning post the tryptophan coma, we learn that China is in protest and in some cases rioting.

There are hundreds of thousands of Chinese citizens literally in the street protesting, not covid lockdowns as the press would like you to believe, but the CCP. Yupper the Chinese oligarchy.In comparison of the Tiananmen Square protests verses todays protests, it is estimated that today's protests are about 1,000 X's greater.

When the PLA and police started the roundup of Chinese citizens on May 20, 1989, they used live fire to help make the crowds disperse. Depending on who you listen to, the KIA was from hundreds (Chinese CCP) to ten's of thousands (CIA). The discrepancy between the KIA reports is in part the killing during the quelling of the protest, to executions post the protests in private. 

With today's protests covering two districts, Beijing & Shanghai, with the protests spreading throughout the country, we are talking major manufacturing districts being shut down. Districts that produce most of China's exports.

With 25% of the worlds manufacturing capabilities in China, how will this news affect our supply chain? How will it affect the world's supply chain?

All of us have been watching the canary in the coal mine east across the pond, we now have to watch what is going down west of the big drink in Asia.

Let's look at Tiananmen Square as a data point. If there was 10,000 people eliminated in 1989, we can expect +/- 10,000,000 Chinese citizens eliminated by the CCP/PLA before this drama is over. The math: 10,000 deaths from Tiananmen Square x 2022 protests 1,000 times the 1989 drama = 10,000,000 deaths.

Our government thinks what is happening in China is serious enough to put out a US Embassy Emergency memo to all embassy staff's and citizens within China. The memo suggested that all the US citizens in China stock up on water and food for fourteen days.

Then we learn today that Twitter was attacked by bots to lessen the images and videos of the protests coming out of China.

Stay tuned,
 

   
 

[JohnyMac]

From a friend...

[Jackalope]

The CCP always clamps down...hard.  I don't foresee any change, as the CCP still controls the military.  I imagine they'll let the protestors blow off some steam and then clamp down even harder than before.

[Nemo]

I'm seeing a different flavor to this over Tianamen.  Govt there controls and monitors everything and knows who is doing what, where and when almost instantly.

But people are still protesting and taking the chance.  May and likely will get crushed but I got a bit of a sneaking suspicion things might go differently than we anticipate.

Nemo