‘Multiple Incidents’ of Russian Aggression in the Air and on Sea Prompt NATO War

[JohnyMac]

Things are heating up between Russia and NATO - Why? What is Putin's "end game"?

The Blaze Reports.
...NATO says Russia has increased its flight tempo around NATO member nations since 2013, mirroring the increased tension between the U.S. and Russia amid the Ukraine crisis. NATO has scrambled alert aircraft more than 400 times in 2014 to identify or intercept Russian jets — a 50 percent increase in just one year, according to Reuters.

The Russians are making their strength known at sea as well: a squadron of Russian warships entered the English Channel on Friday. At least four vessels led by the anti-submarine ship will conduct drills for several days. Although NATO said the mission is essentially “normal maritime traffic,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, said the Russian warship movement doesn’t help to defuse tension and called their presence in the English Channel “unnecessary.”...

[gadget99]

Oh Dear.... I have a few theories on this that may belong in Tin Foil Hat territory.

Does anyone believe that the western world would risk WWIII over the Ukraine? Even better, does anyone really believe that Putin is scared of the west? I don't believe that he is. If I was him I would not either.

Now let us examine my tin foil hat stuff.

So I'll hang it all out for a moment.

Let's assume that the world is having some increasingly serious problems at the moment. With that being said, if there was a SHTF event, what nations are going to be able to weather the storm. The third world nation are going to be in reality in a business as usual position.

Now let us look at the leader board for a moment. There are three VERY large nations that are at the cusp of being Super Powers. Yet due to the size and distribution of modern life, are well placed to weather a SHTF situation.

Russia, China and India are in a unique position at the moment.

To be honest, if I was in a position of calling the shots. I would form a loose coalition of those three and EMP the whole planet. Then I would be looking at expanding my territory.

[JohnyMac]

I like your theory of EPMing western Europe and North America (Maybe others) then taking what you want. The best case scenario it would take the countries mentioned one year to regroup. By that time you have made the move and in reality nobody could do anything about it. 

[Nemo]

With the current oil prices, Russia is soon fixing to go down in flames.  Their oil output supports everything over there.  As long as it is $100 a barrel they are in good shape.

At $90 they have their nose above water but not far.

Below that they are sinking fast. 

With this happening, there is no real reason for them not to get belligerent.  And outright hostile is going to happen.  Potentially outright hostilities between them and us.

Nemo

[crudos]

[Burt Gummer]

• It's currency block wars. (credit)
• It's all fiat (fake) currency of which the point is deflation. And so they all will depreciate.
• The currency with the slowest depreciation is the most coveted and investment capital gravitates towards it slowing it down even more.
• The point of the EU was the Euro. A "stronger together" idea, allowing for more inflation. Only it didn't work and it started decreasing to fast.
• Capital leaves Europe, avoids the US (duh) and goes to the Russia and China currency blocks.
• This is bad for the EU/US alliance.
• So the CIA overthrows Ukrainian gov (trying to do the same thing in Hong Kong)
• Installs pro EU puppet gov that immediately routes all currency/credit transactions through Europe.
• Allowing for a "tipping of the scales" and capital to flow back into the US/EU alliance.
• In the end it's all about who's the meanest/baddest gov so Putin is flexes his gov muscles. because the EU/US has a history of not playing "nicely".

[JohnyMac]

Brilliant outline Burt! 

I was talking with MrsMac last night and made a comment that depreciation was starting and it was manifesting itself by lower oil prices. Her take was a bit different in that the US was behind lower oil prices. They were happening to slap Russia around and hit them in their #1 export pocket. 

On one hand if depreciation starts and accelerates, this will lead to hyperinflation ala' the Weimar Republic. There are other examples too.

On the other hand, if the US/EU hits Putin to hard in his pockets he might just take all of his marbles and walk away. Which will leave the EU without energy. The US will swoop in to help the EU and the American consumer will suffer with hyperinflation first at the pump then other items that need energy to produce and/or bring to market.

Just think folks; 100 years ago we found out about things weeks after an event happened. Today we learn about events in minutes. We live in interesting times folks. For you history buffs, enjoy the ride show.

 

[Well-Prepared Witch]

I'm with Mrs. Mac - I think the oil price thing is us f'ing with Putin/Russia.  I think it's flexing our muscles.  At least we know that they have two reasons to rape our land and poison our water - short-term profit AND destabilizing a traditional enemy country.

[Kbop]

looks like Russian banks are feeling the squeeze -
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-just-announced-massive-foreign-200700766.html

[DMCakhunter]

Lots of theories and ideas. Here is another one: The oil issue is a result of global reduction in usage of fuels and a strengthening dollar. Vehicles are getting better mileage combined with people traveling less (at $3.30 per gallon gas). As the cost comes down, peoples habits will change and may be more inclined to purchase vehicles with worse mileage and or travel more. Time will tell.
Another factor is the middle east oil economies. They see the US as a nuisance and are willing to lower pricing to counter US production. Actually, our production is fairly cheap ($30-$65 per barrel depending on landowner agreements and the cost to drill the well), shipping via rail cars is terribly expensive = $2 per barrel via pipeline and $15 per barrel for rail, so you have to factor that into market selling price of crude. While the US has large energy reserves, they are largely landlocked and restricted to the available rail routes and refineries. The middle eastern oil economies are the ones that dictate the price of oil and they will for a long time to come. They can easily tolerate lower pricing to slow US development.
As far as Russia, they and other countries have scented weakness in the US and in Europe and are taking advantage of it. Russia would not want a war as much as we would not. We all have too much to lose, but if they can get some benefit, ally, territory, push just a little and the west usually backs down. Europe will be the first to break their own sanctions, as they always do. Their economy is headed down and they do a lot of trade with Russia and will need that to move forward. Russia will always have an energy stranglehold on Europe because of the natural gas, no other way around that, especially since nuclear energy is being frowned on.
The next problem is the US dollar. The US led the world with currency weakening to boost our economy. While it is strengthening now after all of the weakening that was done, other countries are weakening theirs to boost their economies. So starts the currency wars. Soon the US will not be competitive on the global scene and will have to weaken the currency again to catch up. Not sure where it stops.

[JohnyMac]

Interesting article. I didn't know (Shame on me) that the P was collapsing. I also didn't know that the Russian economy was in a death spiral. Maybe the financial sanctions that the Obama regime over the Ukraine are working.

[JohnyMac]

DMC wrote:
Soon the US will not be competitive on the global scene and will have to weaken the currency again to catch up.

Weakening the dollar DMC, do you mean more QEing? If so where does it end? QEing, IMO is a death spiral that at some point, we will not be able to pull out of. If the USofA's $ shits the bed, the entire house of cards comes tumbling down.   

[DMCakhunter]

JM, you are correct. It will end when there is no more credit or no more confidence in the currency.

[JohnyMac]

DMC, this question may be a bit off topic, so free to start a new topic/subject if you would like to get a broader response:
Where do you think the economy going DMC?

It is obvious to me by your past posts that you have a good handle of the current economic situation around the globe and would like to hear/read what you think.

There are two thoughts out there...

1) The economy is improving, albeit slowly and we (USA) are seeing the light at the end of the "great recession" tunnel.
2) With an $18T national dept and another $100T plus in unsecured liabilities, it is only time that the US $ becomes
    worthless and our economy collapse upon itself pulling into the great abyss the EU and other economies. 

I know you reported in an earlier post that you had attended a conference that presented a rather rosy picture for the future.

Thanks...Off to my deer stand. 
   

[Nemo]

It does not matter where or how or why.  I think that we all agree things are going to get a crapton worse that anticipated (even by us) sometime in the reasonably near future. 

About all we can do it sit down, shut up, hang on and appreciate the ride when it happens.  It would also be good to try to be smart when it happens.  But we can also put an extra jar of peanut butter and box of bullets in the grocery cart in the meantime.   

Nemo