Hi all,
I hope all is as well as can be for everyone.
I thought I might do a quick update on how things are here in the UK.
I am hoping to stay out of subjects of heavy debate in this post.
For background info. The UK started this current situation as many other nations. In a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. The initial government response was based upon the advice to allow for the virus to spread in the interests of gaining herd immunity. This would require approx 40 million of the 66 million people in the UK to have had the virus. More on this later.
The government was extremely unprepared for this situation. You see. In 2006 there was a huge planning exercise conducted around how the nation would respond the an avian flu pandemic. The government spent a huge amount of effort in the development of these plans. This also required private industry to do the same. I was involved in this planning as part of an IT company supporting one of the large global banks. The plans developed were very detailed and robust.
Now in 2016 a review was conducted on these plans across the spectrum. In the review it was noted that the plans needed some updates and the stockpile of supplies needed to be refreshed. Unfortunately neither of these things happened. This set the stage for the initial government response to this corona-virus.
Back to the herd immunity subject. I believe that as the corona-virus broke the government asked for options in response from the experts. Most likely they were advised to activate the in place pandemics plans and work this as planned. However there were a few factors that made this appear to be troublesome. In order to do so the expected economic hit would be worse than planned since the plans and supplies would have to be updated no matter the cost to do such. I believe that at this point the government asked for an alternative. This is when the herd immunity stance probably came into the forefront. So contrary to what other nations were doing and in opposition to the advice at the time. The UK announced the intent to facilitate herd immunity in the population as the plan. At this point the government stopped attempting quarantine and contact tracing efforts.
This plan did not last very long. Mainly due to the heads of the different medical and supply-chain entities stating that an uncontrolled spread would overwhelm the system and deaths would grow exponentially as the quality of care would be decreased. This of course alarmed the government and forced them to reconsider their actions. This is where two very important concepts became VERY true and applicable.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't
and
Democratic populations are only governed by the consent of the governed. Remember the police here do their jobs without firearms.
The UK government probably realised that the majority of voting populace would crucify them if they continued the stance of relegating a certain percentage of the populace to death as a cost of doing business. This percentage would be in addition to the normal death rate that is experienced every day.
Now I understand the very heavy debate about the validity of whether this virus is actually a threat or qualifies as a pandemic. I wish to stay away from that in this post. I do not wish to focus of the root cause and want to focus of an intelligence update on the effects applicable to the UK as it stands today and the future.
So in the face of all that has been stated above. The UK government did an about face and instituted a full lock-down of the UK. The lock-down measures were very complete. Basically if it was non-essential it was not allowed. The UK closed the shutters and stayed home. This allowed the essential services across the board to focus on managing the effects of the virus on the society. The instances of accidents, crime and such fell to minuscule levels. freeing up the resources to be used in combating the virus and what emergencies that did occur. Yes the police and local governments did overstep things in the interest of enforcing the lock-down. However in most cases people complained and the government pulled in the reins by clarifying the rules.
It must be noted that the UK has a societal memory of times like this. The privations and conditions of the WWII era are still present in the living memory of this society. The UK was still under rationing controls well into the 1950's. So this current situation was not as much of a shock to this society as it could have been. This has brought on a resurgence of the public spirit of the WWII era in a small way. Communities have pulled together in a way that any words I type here would never do justice to such. The populace have rallied around a new sector of heroes in the society. Especially the medical workers fighting to save people. Local businesses have reformatted the way they do business and have increased the spectrum of the delivery economy to meet the needs of the customers. This has assisted those companies that could to continue to trade and in many cases improved their balance sheets in the process. As an example here on the Island their are a few wholesale food distributors who supply the hospitality industry here. These suppliers in the face of having most of their trade curtailed with the closures. Very quickly opened trade to the public. This success has resulted in those businesses thriving. As a matter of fact they have announced that they intend to continue this service from this point onward.
Ok....
So I know this is long winded.
When the Prime Minister caught the virus and had to go into intensive care everyone held their breath. To this point the government was trying to play catch-up. Trying to replace the medical stocks that had not been restocked over the past decade. Trying to figure out a plan to follow onward. It was worrisome. Then Boris came back with a new vigour. He had a personal perspective now. So the government further refined the stance and way forward.
This brings us to this last week.
1. After some serious number crunching. It was determined that the economy was going to suffer no matter what course was or had been taken.
2. The voting populace was not going to accept a full lock-down forever and things needed to be eased.
3. The populace will not tolerate relegating people to death in any relation to the virus.
4. The testing of the populace must begin as soon as possible to be used to institute control measures to dampen flair-up's.
5. The lock-down easing measures needed to be done intelligently based upon maintaining common sense caution and social distancing.
6. Businesses that can institute safe measures would be encouraged to reopen.
So here we are. Things are re-opening slowly. Restrictions are easing intelligently. The populace for the most part are being and will be cautious in how they conduct their daily lives.
Most understand that this situation we find ourselves in is a long term one. We are in for the long haul.
As a prepper I am aware of the risks we do and will face. Society here is weakened across the board. This leaves risk of compounding situations causing worse circumstances. This has made mine and my own to understand that we are going to be in full prep mode for the next few years at the least. Meaning we are still prepping as well as living simply with most of our preps standing ready for use immediately.
Here are a few items I am keeping aware of in my threat analysis.
1. The global and national economy is going to suck no matter what for a good while.
2. We are in a solar minimum and the growing seasons are going to shorten due to this.
3. Their is likely to be more waves of this virus until we get a scientific handle on it as it continues to mutate.
4. The pandemic will be causing problems in many places in the world. This destabilising impact is going to cause unpredictable consequences that probably will have international effects.
5. Instability in the world can and usually does cause conflict. So war or wars are a possibility.
Peace all. I hope this report provides useful info and perspectives to any of you that read it.
