Military warns EMP attack could wipe out America, 'democracy, world order'

[patriotman]

In an extraordinary and sobering report meant to wake the nation up to a growing threat, a new military white paper warns that an electromagnetic pulse weapon attack such as those developed by North Korea, Russia, and Iran could essentially wipe out the United States, kill or displace millions, and even force jets to drop from the sky.

“Based on the totality of available data,” said the report from the Air Force’s Air University and provided to Secrets, “an electromagnetic spectrum attack may be a threat to the United States, democracy, and the world order.”

The report, titled, “Electromagnetic Defense Task Force,” and the product of a mostly classified summit of 40 agencies just outside of Washington earlier this year, is the most forceful call by any government agency yet for a new focus on preparing for either an enemy EMP attack or a natural hit such as a solar storm.

While it is focused on the devastating impact an EMP hit would have on the military, it backs up a congressional warning that up to 90 percent of the population on the East Coast would die in a year of an attack that would dismantle or interfere with electricity, transportation, food processing, and healthcare.

Consider just some of the warnings in the report from the United States Air Force Air University and the Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education. In an attack, said the report:

    99 nuclear reactors would likely melt down without electricity to cool them.

    4.1 million would be displaced from areas around the nuclear plants as the radioactive cloud spread.

    Military and commercial jets, such as those built by Airbus, would fall from the sky. "Alarmingly, aircraft designed to carry large numbers of people and sizable cargo are allowed to operate without certainty about their level of resilience."

    Bases would be cut off, making defense and counter-attacks impossible.

    Civil unrest would start in “hours.”

    Power and GPS would go dark. “An EMP would cause instantaneous and simultaneous loss of many technologies reliant on electrical power and computer circuit boards, such as cell phones and GPS devices.”

    Technology would be dismantled. “Failures may include long-term loss of electrical power (due to loss of emergency generators), sewage, fresh water, banking, landlines, cellular service, vehicles.”

    18 months are required to replace key elements of the electric grid that would be damaged or knocked out.

Figuring out just which country launched an attack would be difficult since the weapon could be delivered in a satellite.

It also noted the development of the 5G mobile network and how it will run communications and why it must be protected, especially since China is the biggest competitor to its development.

“Because control of 5G is roughly equivalent to control of the Internet, open 5G is critical to freedom and free-market economics. Meanwhile, access to the 5G-millimeter wave bandwidth will be critical to operations in all war-fighting domains, in particular, space command & control,” said the white paper.

Lt. Gen. Steven Kwast, the commander of Air Education and Training Command who oversaw the EMP summit, told Secrets, “As electromagnetic technologies fuse in new and often dangerous ways, it’s critical that the military and industry make honest evaluations of present and future conflict states to ensure we’re proactive rather than reactive.”

He also advised for predicting how U.S. foes will try to outsmart any fixes to the electric grid and other targets of an EMP attack.

“French actions before WWII demonstrate that even bold action, such as building the Maginot Line, can be rapidly overcome through imagination. The imagination that defeated the Maginot Line was the German Blitzkrieg which unexpectedly exploited the only gap in the wall. Groundbreaking research like this can help the wider defense community understand not only how take bold action, but how to take the right bold action to prevent catastrophic outcomes,” said the general.

The report said that the president should focus on the issue and declare it a critical issue. What’s more, it called for a central office to push for EMP prevention and reaction should an attack come.

The report, written by experts Air Force Maj. David Stuckenberg, former CIA Director James Woolsey, and Col. Douglas DeMaio, also called for a national and congressional publicity campaign to alert the nation and governmental leaders to the threat.

“The potential for an adversary to inflict damage on states through EMS attack has grown significantly,” said the 69-page report, which warned, “An EMP attack affects all devices with solid-state electronics and could render inoperative the main grid and backup power systems, such as on-site generators.”

It highlighted the lack of a reaction plan or major focus on an EMP attack, even if just from a solar flare. “In some areas, there is a complete absence of strategy,” said the report. It added, “EMP is a tragedy of the commons as ‘no one’s job jar.’”

I bolded some relevant parts. An EMP attack would cripple the United States for years to come and would easily lead to a 75% casualty rate in the first year (I have seen as high as 90%, though that statistic may have been wrongly interpreted from the EMP Commission report).


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/military-warns-emp-attack-could-wipe-out-america-democracy-world-order

[gadget99]

In an extraordinary and sobering report meant to wake the nation up to a growing threat, a new military white paper warns that an electromagnetic pulse weapon attack such as those developed by North Korea, Russia, and Iran could essentially wipe out the United States, kill or displace millions, and even force jets to drop from the sky.

“Based on the totality of available data,” said the report from the Air Force’s Air University and provided to Secrets, “an electromagnetic spectrum attack may be a threat to the United States, democracy, and the world order.”

The report, titled, “Electromagnetic Defense Task Force,” and the product of a mostly classified summit of 40 agencies just outside of Washington earlier this year, is the most forceful call by any government agency yet for a new focus on preparing for either an enemy EMP attack or a natural hit such as a solar storm.

While it is focused on the devastating impact an EMP hit would have on the military, it backs up a congressional warning that up to 90 percent of the population on the East Coast would die in a year of an attack that would dismantle or interfere with electricity, transportation, food processing, and healthcare.

Consider just some of the warnings in the report from the United States Air Force Air University and the Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education. In an attack, said the report:

    99 nuclear reactors would likely melt down without electricity to cool them.

    4.1 million would be displaced from areas around the nuclear plants as the radioactive cloud spread.

    Military and commercial jets, such as those built by Airbus, would fall from the sky. "Alarmingly, aircraft designed to carry large numbers of people and sizable cargo are allowed to operate without certainty about their level of resilience."

    Bases would be cut off, making defense and counter-attacks impossible.

    Civil unrest would start in “hours.”

    Power and GPS would go dark. “An EMP would cause instantaneous and simultaneous loss of many technologies reliant on electrical power and computer circuit boards, such as cell phones and GPS devices.”

    Technology would be dismantled. “Failures may include long-term loss of electrical power (due to loss of emergency generators), sewage, fresh water, banking, landlines, cellular service, vehicles.”

    18 months are required to replace key elements of the electric grid that would be damaged or knocked out.

Figuring out just which country launched an attack would be difficult since the weapon could be delivered in a satellite.

It also noted the development of the 5G mobile network and how it will run communications and why it must be protected, especially since China is the biggest competitor to its development.

“Because control of 5G is roughly equivalent to control of the Internet, open 5G is critical to freedom and free-market economics. Meanwhile, access to the 5G-millimeter wave bandwidth will be critical to operations in all war-fighting domains, in particular, space command & control,” said the white paper.

Lt. Gen. Steven Kwast, the commander of Air Education and Training Command who oversaw the EMP summit, told Secrets, “As electromagnetic technologies fuse in new and often dangerous ways, it’s critical that the military and industry make honest evaluations of present and future conflict states to ensure we’re proactive rather than reactive.”

He also advised for predicting how U.S. foes will try to outsmart any fixes to the electric grid and other targets of an EMP attack.

“French actions before WWII demonstrate that even bold action, such as building the Maginot Line, can be rapidly overcome through imagination. The imagination that defeated the Maginot Line was the German Blitzkrieg which unexpectedly exploited the only gap in the wall. Groundbreaking research like this can help the wider defense community understand not only how take bold action, but how to take the right bold action to prevent catastrophic outcomes,” said the general.

The report said that the president should focus on the issue and declare it a critical issue. What’s more, it called for a central office to push for EMP prevention and reaction should an attack come.

The report, written by experts Air Force Maj. David Stuckenberg, former CIA Director James Woolsey, and Col. Douglas DeMaio, also called for a national and congressional publicity campaign to alert the nation and governmental leaders to the threat.

“The potential for an adversary to inflict damage on states through EMS attack has grown significantly,” said the 69-page report, which warned, “An EMP attack affects all devices with solid-state electronics and could render inoperative the main grid and backup power systems, such as on-site generators.”

It highlighted the lack of a reaction plan or major focus on an EMP attack, even if just from a solar flare. “In some areas, there is a complete absence of strategy,” said the report. It added, “EMP is a tragedy of the commons as ‘no one’s job jar.’”

I bolded some relevant parts. An EMP attack would cripple the United States for years to come and would easily lead to a 75% casualty rate in the first year (I have seen as high as 90%, though that statistic may have been wrongly interpreted from the EMP Commission report).


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/military-warns-emp-attack-could-wipe-out-america-democracy-world-order

Good catch Patriotman...

This one does worry me.

An aspect of this that is not discussed very often is the disparity of effect in an EMP event.

Taking as an example for this subject. Let us look at a naturally caused event as a repeat of the Carrington event.

Now in a globally impacted EMP event. The more developed countries will experience the worst consequences.

Populations that are not reliant upon technology for day to day life will weather the effects better.

Our society often points to our development level and how advanced our society is. Yet that only means we have further to fall is the tech stops working.

Just food for thought.

[patriotman]

Agreed. Just like how in a conflict in which anti-satellite weapons are used, we would suffer the worst. Our reliance of technology will be our absolute downfall. Hence why the Army is putting emphasis on Land Nav and the Navy is putting emphasis on celestial navigation.

The threats from a EMP and a Carrington event are similar but not 100% the same. EMP is far, far worse.

This weekend I will post in the DIY what my Faraday cage looks like (hint - it's cheap and very effective).

[grizz]

Is the 75% causality number based on foreign invaders or civil unrest in the US?

[patriotman]

Here is a great video (13:49): http://eiscouncil.org/Video

The casualty rate is because everything stops functioning. As per the military report, it would take 18 months+ to get the electricity on. The transformers aren't sitting on a shelf somewhere. They have to be made. But then we need to drive them to the location, which is hard if there is no electricity to get the gas out of the ground at gas stations.

Speaking of gas and trucking, most grocery stores use just-in-time delivery, meaning that they rely on weekly (or more frequent) resupplies. No gas = no trucks to deliver food, or harvest it, or process it. That means the grocery store doesn't get resupplied, so no food. Pumps that pull water out of the ground no longer work. Hospitals no longer work. Medical supplies no longer flow. People who rely on stuff like dialysis are goners. People who rely on meds on a daily basis will see supply dry up. People will die from civil unrest. People will die from disease - not just pandemics, but contaminated water. Sewage systems no longer work. When winter comes, there is no heat (also, imagine no AC in the South in the summer). Planes will fall out of the sky. People will be stranded when their cars run out of gas.

So, we finally manage to transport those transformers. Who the hell is left alive to install them and knows how to?

An EMP is the most terrifying scenario you can possibly imagine.

One Second After by William Forstchen will terrify you.

[gadget99]

Great book...

Am looking to read it again soon.

[patriotman]

Great book...

Am looking to read it again soon.

Agreed. I have the sequel but haven't read it yet. I know he has at least one more coming to make it a trilogy.

[grizz]

A solar storm event would not bother me because the entire world will be concerned about taking care of their own backyard

An attack from outside the US would bother me because there is no way to determine who the attackers are until its too late and they will most likely have vehicles and supply lines open for them while they march through our Country.

[patriotman]

A solar storm event would not bother me because the entire world will be concerned about taking care of their own backyard

An attack from outside the US would bother me because there is no way to determine who the attackers are until its too late and they will most likely have vehicles and supply lines open for them while they march through our Country.

Not necessarily. IIRC, it depends on how long the CME lasts when hitting the Earth. Only the side facing the Sun during the storm would be affected. Now, if the electrical systems are inter-connected, it could be a cascading failure but I don't think everyone goes down at once.

As for your point about the EMP, that is exactly why a) the US considers an EMP attack as a nuclear attack (if we knew the origin, that is; same as a catastrophic cyber attack on our critical infrastructure a la Stuxnet), and b) that point about China and Russia down south is important because we could be seeing BTRs and BMPs rolling across the Texas border.

[Jackalope]

    There's been a number of discussions here regarding Faraday cages, just look at past postings.  And Forstchen's trilogy is complete, the third novel has been out for a while now.  I consider the first book to be the best of the three.

    EMP is one of my top three survival concerns.  We discussed this a while ago, but an EMP event would be like a major cascading failure.  The general populace would need to revert to the technology of the 1800's.  The survival rate would be much higher in third world nations.  The average American or Canadian, for that matter, knows nothing about food production. Starvation and disease would be prevalent.  Urban denizens would be screwed. 

    I have a lot of my electronics stored in steel garbage cans, with metallic tape sealing the seam at the top.  I've read various reports regarding the effects of an EMP, and the predictions have varied widely.  Some say that most modern cars and trucks would be out of commission, others says the failure percentage would be much lower.  I'm not sure about the GPS satellites, because they have been hardened for CME events, but the satellite hunter/killers would make short order of any space based navigation system.  An EMP would clear the playing field rather quickly, let's hope no one decides to try them out.  For those that want some extra EMP protection for their home, whether AC or DC, you night check out www.empstorm.com  Dr. Bradley is developing a device to handle the surges associated with an EMP.  Dr. Bradley produced some videos showing the effectiveness of garbage cans as a Faraday Cage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYWhTMmv6bs

  He's the same Arthur Bradley who writes the Survivalist novels, an entertaining  postapocalyptic series, so he really does know his stuff when he writes fiction.

   

[grizz]

didnt Tesla invent something too?

[patriotman]

    There's been a number of discussions here regarding Faraday cages, just look at past postings.  And Forstchen's trilogy is complete, the third novel has been out for a while now.  I consider the first book to be the best of the three.

    EMP is one of my top three survival concerns.  We discussed this a while ago, but an EMP event would be like a major cascading failure.  The general populace would need to revert to the technology of the 1800's.  The survival rate would be much higher in third world nations.  The average American or Canadian, for that matter, knows nothing about food production. Starvation and disease would be prevalent.  Urban denizens would be screwed. 

    I have a lot of my electronics stored in steel garbage cans, with metallic tape sealing the seam at the top.  I've read various reports regarding the effects of an EMP, and the predictions have varied widely.  Some say that most modern cars and trucks would be out of commission, others says the failure percentage would be much lower.  I'm not sure about the GPS satellites, because they have been hardened for CME events, but the satellite hunter/killers would make short order of any space based navigation system.  An EMP would clear the playing field rather quickly, let's hope no one decides to try them out.  For those that want some extra EMP protection for their home, whether AC or DC, you night check out www.empstorm.com  Dr. Bradley is developing a device to handle the surges associated with an EMP.  Dr. Bradley produced some videos showing the effectiveness of garbage cans as a Faraday Cage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYWhTMmv6bs  He's the same Arthur Bradley who writes the Survivalist novels, an entertaining  postapocalyptic series, so he really does know his stuff when he writes fiction.

   

Bradley is my go to guy on this. I use a steel can lined with foam, and all electronics are put in his EMP bags he sells and sealed with metallic tape. It is cheap and easily provides enough shielding.

It is a low probably but extremely high impact event. However I feel like it is creeping up from extremely low to very low etc

[JoJo]

 From the many articles that I have read on EMP/CME you don't need a solid metal wall to shield your electronics. It's said that it is a wave length thing and if the wave was large enough wire cloth would protect your stuff.
 My Faraday cage for my portable generator is poster board and a five sided box which I covered with aluminum screen door screening where the screening is also wrapped around the bottom of the box.
 I also have a calculator and note pad in a transponder mailing envelope and a steel bucket for my small stuff.
 

[Kbop]

On the possible death toll percentages.
from the 1980's doom's day book (a nuclear war briefing - now declassified) its based on population density.
the east and west coasts of CONUS would be nearly depopulated.  either from trauma, disease, starvation, lack of clean water or evacuated. 
-
the carrying capacity on the west coast is a problem in the south due to lack of water.  the typical buildings in the south and south east - the new ones - don't have windows you can open.  Summers would be hard.  the new construction - especially high rise - from PA to ME would be nearly impossible to heat in the winter.  In the midwest, the river valleys would be viable - but the upper plains away from the mountains would be hard to survive in during the winters. 

a huge number of people wouldn't be able to adapt in time.   add to that;
nearly 20 percent of USofA inhabitants have some continuing medical requirements for extending their lives.
10 percent require direct care of some type.
20 percent are children under 15.
20 percent are elderly
there is a lot of overlap in those numbers but vulnerable populations wouldn't survive even a short term outage - based on hurricane Katrina's numbers.  After Katrina help arrived to the majority of the affected within a few weeks.
 
the math is ugly. 
EMP is also one of my major worries.  low probability, high impact - and i would add, very long recovery time.
One note - i see alot of people, who should know better, talking about a single bomb event - a salted tamper high gamma yield device would turn the lights out LOS (so one bomb over Kansas) but the E1, E2 would require 6 or so typical thermonuclear weapons to fry all the electronics.  the grid bombing wouldn't be a problem for Russia or China - but without help DPRK or Iran might not be able to pull that off.  one bomb - no lights or water.  6 bombs, no trains, cars, air transport and no electronics at all - radio and computers would help stitch our country back together faster.

[pkveazey]

Each of us has our own opinion on what we think would happen in an EMP event. I think that were I live, it would be bad but since I live 20 miles from a city, I think I'll be better off than Urbanites. I have spare radios that are wrapped in Aluminum foil and taped. Hopefully, My radios will survive but if they don't I've got the extras to count on. My biggest concern is, what if my other radio buddies didn't prepare by having shielded spares? Damn! Who am I going to talk to? I've got to do a bit more shielding because I have at least 4 Handi-talkies ready to go on backpacks and I'm going to unhook the speaker mikes and wrap them in foil. Hopefully, they'll also survive. My first concern is Economic Collapse, My second is EMP, and my third is Civil War. What is my fourth? Who gives a damn? Those first three are bad enough without worrying about a fourth.

[gadget99]

On the subject of preps for EMP.

I am a bit of a tech geek and have a few servers running at the house for different things.

I am at the moment building a cabinet for them and all my backup tech. I am putting an aluminium sheet outer layer on it.

Now with the servers in the cabinet and running I have to points of entry for the EMP risk. The network connection to the distribution point for the rest of the house and the incoming power.

So here are the ways that I am going to solve the issue.

First off. The servers and the data on them are the most important bit of tech to me. The rest can easily be replaced and the replacements will reside in the faraday cabinet with the servers awaiting their turn to be used.

1. The network connection coming out of the cabinet is Fiber Optic. These carry a very high data rate and with proper sourcing are non conductive.
2. The power connection is the most critical and most expensive. You can buy Sine Wave power supplies that are rated for EMP protection. Sine Wave power supplies have been around for a while and have been used to condition the power going to servers. The EMP rated versions were VERY expensive. Yet the prices are coming down for used ones. I intend to run this in the following sequence. Power From the Home into a seperate area of the cabinet where the Sine Wave power supply rests. To the Battery Backup devices. To the servers.

So with this setup I can have the servers running hot for my domestic, project and development uses.

Cheers all.