In November Walmart will be reporting earnings for the quarter. There is speculation among investors that they will show a decrease in earnings of ~15% from the same period last year.
I have read that other retailers took a sharp hit in comp sales for Q3 too. Mmmmm?
Does this contraction of retail growth spell a higher unemployment rate in the near future? Is the recession that economists have been predicting for the foreseeable future will come to fruition?
On another note: GDP came back to 3.9% in Q2 after a dismal -.7% in Q1 of this year. Consensus by people who follow this number feel that Q3 GDP will be in the 3% range. With the rumblings of a negative Q3 comp sales from retailers who knows where GDP will actually fall for Q3. Most assuredly it will be south of that 3% consensus.
Then we have the holiday season or in other words Q4 just around the corner. How many internet ads have you been getting of late? How are the offers?
I have been getting A LOT of ad's and the prices are rock bottom in those ads. To me...Pessimist JohnyMac. Dirt bottom prices now mean that National retailers are worried about Q4 and are:
1) Getting as much cash as they can before people spend it elsewhere and
2) Retailers have over stocked shelves and need to liquidate these items before year end.
Remember, deflation comes before inflation in a collapse like what we saw in Germany in the '30's ala Weimar Republic.
November is stacking up to be an exciting economic month. Stay tuned....
