I subscribe to Samuel Culper's
Forward Observer. I enjoy reading, Sam and the magazines staff's no nonsense intel. Below is a short C&P of the magazines intel and thoughts on, where is Antifa and BurnLootMurder Inc. this summer. I felt it was right on and I needed to share it. Enjoy, JMc
InFocus: The current state of left wing extremism
Earlier this month, a Quinnipiac poll asked Americans whether they thought ?extremism is a serious problem in the United States today.? Some 65% of respondents said that right-wing extremism is a problem, and 60% said that left-wing extremism is a problem. Maybe most importantly, independents were evenly split on both being a problem, at 64% for right-wing and 63% for left-wing. [source: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3814] Polling numbers this close actually surprised me due to the one-sided media and government focus on domestic right-wing extremist violence. Of course, when you start breaking down by politics, race, and education, the gap widens. For example, 91% of Democrats see right-wing extremism as a problem, while just 40% see left-wing extremism as a problem. It?s 36% (right) to 79% (left) among Republicans.
This is important because left-wing extremists ? revolutionary communist and radical violent anarchist groups ? are far more organized than any groups on the Right. Every week, Max shows us just how coordinated nationwide left-wing protest activities can be. Activists continue to build momentum for nationwide general strikes. The hotbeds of Portland and Seattle ? ground zero for the anarcho-communist proto-insurgency ? experience left-wing violence on a near daily or weekly basis. That?s far from the 120-150 consecutive days of riots we saw last summer, so I want to take stock of the current state of left-wing extremism.
I?ve previously discussed the Maoist phases of revolutionary warfare, which are broken down into roughly three phases. According to Chinese revolutionary Mao Zedong, there?s an organizational phase (what we traditionally call ?latent and incipient insurgency?), followed by the guerrilla warfare phase, followed by a conventional phase. Others, like former Army Colonel John McCuen (1926-2010), have outlined the process as 1) organization, 2) terrorism, 3) guerrilla warfare, and 4) mobile/conventional warfare. Most insurgencies follow this model or something close to it.
If our key assumptions include 1) there are individuals and organizations in the U.S. who describe themselves as Leftist revolutionaries, 2) who are building revolutionary movements, and 3) engage in revolutionary behavior ? I believe each of these are true ? then we could see these individuals and organization pursue something that looks like the Maoist phases of revolutionary warfare. In fact, I believe it?s already been attempted.
What we saw during last summer?s riots was Leftist revolutionary groups in the organizational phase, trying to build velocity to break into the next phase of terrorism and/or guerrilla warfare. Had Donald Trump officially won the 2020 election, these groups would have already had the organizing in place to move into the next phase against the Trump government, which was widely touted as fascist.
We documented numerous instances of revolutionaries organizing nationwide general strikes, especially at key shipping ports, and planning acts of terrorism against key logistics hubs such as the FedEx terminal in Memphis, Tennessee, in order to disrupt the U.S. economy. Leading up to the election, I expected this to look more like Euromaidan than the Iraq insurgency. We saw the leaked Shutdown D.C. planning meetings in which organizers called for literally shutting down the city of Washington, D.C. We documented numerous instances of progressive tastemakers, such as New York Times columnists Michelle Goldberg and Charles Blow, pressing for millions of Americans to fill the streets in protest against Trump, similar to how former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich was forced out of office during Euromaidan. In fact, I covered several instances of activists strategizing how to build pressure against Trump administration officials so that they resigned. The only way Trump would leave office, they said, is if he faced fewer allies and an empty administration. The goal would have been to cause enough economic and political disruption that domestic and international pressure would have forced Trump out of office. It almost certainly would have included armed political violence. In short, rebellion against the perceived fascist government would have, for many, felt only justified but mandatory to save democracy. With Biden being announced president and Trump leaving office, the U.S. very likely averted a multi-year low intensity conflict that could have escalated into something much worse.
This leaves the Far Left poised in the organizing phase. I was asked a couple days ago when the next trigger might be for these groups to again attempt a transition into the next phase. When looking at civil wars and insurgencies, we have to distinguish between accelerators of conflict and triggers of conflict. Some have suggested that a Republican sweep in the 2022 midterm elections might be a trigger, but I see that as an accelerator. It?s virtually certain to build a sense of urgency for the Far Left to focus their preparations on the 2024 elections in the event that another ?fascist? is elected.
We?re coming up on three years until the 2024 elections and, as I stated in the 03 August InFocus, I remain concerned about the viability of the outcome. If a Republican is elected, in addition to seeing accusations of a stolen election and an illegitimate president, we could see the Far Left attempt what they were planning for a second Trump administration. Expect a very Trumpesque media environment, because in order for this to happen, the candidate must be widely perceived as a Trumpesque fascist ? a ?competent Trump? as some have said. Although the riots have for the most part died down, Far Left revolutionary groups haven?t dissolved or disappeared. They remain in the organizational phase, yet are now more experienced and will have had years to prepare for the next go. This is another reason why I expect worsening political violence this decade. ? M.S.
