JM,
No one has a crystal ball that can see everything but here is what I see as trending.
The US economy, after a lot of stimulus, is improving in sectors. Past actions have helped, the cash for clunkers program removed 4 years worth of used cars from the market, forcing people to buy new cars or newer used cars, now we are feeling the effect of improved fuel mileage. Manufacturing is returning to the US, but efficiency in the manufacturing process won;t create as many jobs as needed. Taxes are another issue, corporate tax rates are too high compared to the rest of the world, hurting competition so companies are getting creative to reduce the tax burden, moving offshore, which reduces opportunities for US workers. The US economy has seen a shift over the last 40 years from a heavy industrial/manufacturing to a service economy. Except for our recent ability to export fuels and finished petroleum products, our exports have been declining due to the reasons above. So as we import more and export less, more money leaves the country. That is why the Fed has to borrow and print more cash. Unfortunately this will not change, regardless of the party in power, right up to a collapse of confidence, a recession that will deepen into a depression. The US was the first to devalue the currency to stimulate growth, now as we are trending upward, other economies are weakening their currencies to boost their economies. We have started a wave (crest to trough) that will be hard to smooth out. Another round of easing in a few years to re-boost our economy and competitiveness.
You asked for a prediction, 2015-2018 good transitioning to decent years. 2019 a medium recession. 2021-2027 gangbuster growth and opportunity will fuel massive spending, pushing us into a decline for the following couple of years. Then the wheels will fall off around 2030. No cash, no credit and no confidence. Just the crushing debt that has piled up. On the bright side, we will be able to rebuild our aging infrastructure with cheap labor, just like the last depression.
Another interesting snippet, I read the some of the Euro's have finally admitted their environmental policies are wrong. France figured out that after decades of promoting diesel engines for cars to reduce fuel consumption has actually been the cause of most of their air contamination in the cities. Now they are going the other way, and most of the world will follow.
