June 2022 CPI 9.1%

[JohnyMac]

WOW, I predicted early in the year we would see high single digit to low double digit inflation by mid-summer. Well half way into the year we are at 9.1%. Remember, that number is based on the 2018 CPI formula. The shadow statistics number is not out yet. That number is based on the 1980 CPI formula.

With that written, I suspect inflation is more like 18%. That makes sense as I am seeing a 19-20% inflation in my personal life between food, gas, and other items.

Inflation surged an unexpectedly strong 9.1% last month, raising the risk of even steeper rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as Americans get pummeled by record gas prices, soaring rents and stiff grocery bills.

The dismal June reading released by the Labor Department on Wednesday ? the highest since November 1981 ? will ratchet up pressure on President Biden, who has faced widespread criticism over his muted initial response as higher prices slammed household budgets. - New York Post

DJIA down 300-points so far today. Gold down to $1,720- an oz. $100- lower than this time last year. Crude down to $96- a barrel. Silver down below $19-. Mmmmm.

Wheat is also down since its high at the end of May of $1,258- ZW to $812- ZW today. Still up from one year ago at ~$692- ZW.

 

[Nemo]

9.1%.  Highest in 40+ years.  Anticipated was about 8.8%

July, August and September are the months used (in another formula) to calculate Soc Sec increase.

IIRC last year the standard rate was about 6.6% but SS formula set it at 5.9%.  That was based on the core prices, which measured at 5.9% for last month, much higher than anticipated.

Get ready for a ride.  Make sure you can stay away from the grocery store for at least a month and not miss anything.

Always good to remember the 3 Bs plus 2.  Beans, bullets, bandaids.  When you run out of room for those, or think you have enough for any unpleasantness, go to barter and bullion.

Nemo


https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/inflation-surges-june-hitting-new-40-year-high

[Nemo]

Soc Sec might make 11% next year.

Proper calculation method explanation included here.  My explanation above is general overview.

Nemo

https://www.al.com/news/2022/07/social-security-increase-could-reach-11-next-year-highest-in-40-years.html

Social Security increase could reach 11% next year, highest in 40 years
Published: Jul. 13, 2022, 7:21 a.m.

By Leada Gore | lgore@al.com

Social Security recipients could see the largest benefits boost in four decades, according to a recent analysis.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecasts a cost-of-living adjustment of 10.8%, based on inflation rates at the end of June, Fortune reported. In comparison, if inflation falls to the target rate of 2%, checks would grow by 7.9%.

Inflation has remained stubbornly high all year, with prices increasing 8.6% in May. As a result, Social Security benefits will likely rise somewhere in the middle of those projections, around 8.8%.

At either level, it will be the biggest boost to benefits since 1981 when beneficiaries saw an 11.2% increase. Since then, no yearly COLA has topped the 7.4% seen in 1982. Beneficiaries saw a 5.9% increase in 2022 compared to 1.3% in 2021.

The average monthly Social Security check is worth $1,5409 a month, so a 10.8% COLA would raise that by $166 per month to $1,706, Fortune reported. An 8.8% increase would boost the average check to $1,675.

Social Security?s COLA are based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, from the third quarter of the prior year to the quarter of the current year.

[Sir John Honeybucket]

To convert government inflation figures to actual working numbers, I use the same conversion formula as used to convert Celcius to Farenheit temperatures: "Double it and add thirty."

So, the government reported 9.1% inflation rate converted to 'Farenheit' would be (9.2 * 2) + 30 = 48.2%  Close enough for government work.

Brandon studied at the Zimbabwe Institute of Finance and High Speed Printing.


"We're all going to be millionaires!" but can't afford a jar of peanut butter.


- Sir John Honeybucket

[JohnyMac]

Sir John,   

[Jackalope]

   The Wholesale Inflation Rate jumped to 11.3% in June:  https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/wholesale-inflation-surges-11-3-june-accelerating-more-expected

[JohnyMac]

It is a sad state of affairs for business and then ultimately the middle & lower class.

Q2, 2022, GDP will be released on July 28th. The Atlanta Fed estimates it will be -1.9%. This is on top of the -1.6% in Q1.

Two quarters in a row of negative GDP means we are in a recession.

With the CPI news both consumer nd wholesale, another quarter of negative growth, can layoffs and job hire slowdowns be to far behind?

By the way, DJIA down 575 points at this writing. Gold down $30- to $1,706-. Silver down $1.00 to $18.25. Crude down to $92.50 a barrel.

Last, O' Biden's Build, Back, Better 2.0 in part guarantees all union pension funds.   https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/bidens-union-pension-bailout-what-means-will-work
 

[Nemo]

   The Wholesale Inflation Rate jumped to 11.3% in June:  https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/wholesale-inflation-surges-11-3-june-accelerating-more-expected

It was predicted and anticipated at 10.7.  Strap in and hang on. 

Look for the Fed to raise their rate by 3/4 or a full 1%.  If it goes the 1%, I have little doubt it will be become the Big D, if thats not already here.

Anyone think Depression is valid word to use?

Nemo

[Jackalope]

    I don't think we're in a depression yet, but...  Once we start seeing massive layoffs, then there will be no doubt.  Brandon and the other commiecrats have been talking about a dark winter.  I say they've got everything aligned for their reset.  There will be food and fuel shortages this winter.  I pity those folks up north that don't have woodstoves. I wonder what the country will look like come next spring.

     Meanwhile, Brandon is playing chicken with Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea.  Hey, what about the nuclear attack PSA for NYC, talk about entertainment!

     Johny, we need a nuclear emoji 

[pkveazey]

I've been following a lot of sources concerning the economy and I've come to the conclusion that we, The Public, are being told that our Cancer is just a Pimple and we should not worry about it. I truly feel sorry for the people who are buying that BS because they are going to end up hungry and cold. I'm not going to call them stupid but I will say that they lack Wisdom and have no idea what Situational Awareness is.

[Jackalope]

  I'm hoping things don't get too crazy here in the U.S.  My brother-in-law was able to purchase 5 liters of gas yesterday from the black market for the equivalent of $28.00 USD outside of Colombo, Sri Lanka.  None of the normal gas stations are open.  So, black market gas is almost $25.00 per gallon.  It gives an idea how the economy may roll if the dominoes fall here in the U.S.  In this case, the vendor was still accepting paper money, it would be interesting how it devolves if the people in Sri Lanka have to resort to bartering.

   I forgot to mention, the normal gas price is usually $5.00-6.00 USD equivalent per gallon.