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Author Topic: First Qtr 2022 GDP Declines 1.4%  (Read 202 times)

Offline JohnyMac

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First Qtr 2022 GDP Declines 1.4%
« on: April 28, 2022, 09:24:31 AM »


As released by BEA.gov,

Quote
"In the first quarter, an increase in COVID-19 cases related to the Omicron variant resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified."


Again, it is COVID-19's fault. What will be the excuse for Q2, 2022?  :popcorn:

Can you spell R.E.C.E.S.S.I.O.N.?
 
Who would like to predict April's CPI (Inflation)?
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Offline Nemo

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Re: First Qtr 2022 GDP Declines 1.4%
« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2022, 10:55:00 AM »
I am game to select 8.5% on the low end.  At least last month plus a half to full point or 2.

Nemo
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: First Qtr 2022 GDP Declines 1.4%
« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2022, 11:18:13 AM »
Remember the March Wholesale inflation rate was 11.2%.

I predict it will be 2-3% higher year over year then April 2021 which was 4.2% CPI. Looking at it in today's lens, maybe 9.5% +/- half a percent so 9-10%.

My financial analyst (who poo pooed my prediction of 7% CPI by year end 2021) told me it would probably grow closer to the wholesale CPI.

We will see. We will know around May 13th.   

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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: First Qtr 2022 GDP Declines 1.4%
« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2022, 03:51:21 PM »
Generally speaking...Two consecutive negative GDP numbers equals a Recession. A 10% drop in GDP within one year marks a depression. Keep in mind that Q4 2021 GDP was 6.9% so in essence we had a 8.3% drop since the end of last year.

The last recession we had was 2007-2009. The last Depression we had was 1929-1933.

While recessions have a 1-2 year run, depressions are in the 2-6 year runs.

Oh, what will the PPOTUS administration do?
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Offline Nemo

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Re: First Qtr 2022 GDP Declines 1.4%
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2022, 08:52:43 PM »
Quote from: JohnyMac on April 28, 2022, 03:51:21 PM
Oh, what will the PPOTUS administration do?


He has already made his first major change.

Nemo

http://unchainedpreppers.com/forum/news/dhs-picks-controversial-head-of-new-'misinformation'-board/msg90475/#msg90475

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