Brexit vote - June 23/24

[gadget99]

OK... so thought I might now do a more detailed report on the situation here in the UK.

Some points of note here.

1. The referendum was a vote of the populace. One person one vote.
2. 72% of the UK population voted (An unprecedented level of turnout)
3. Outcomes of the vote were polarized geographically (IE Scotland as a population voted to remain part of the EU)
4. Every Pro Leave the EU political talking head is no longer in a major position of power.

So here is the deal.

The vote is the vote. It is as it is.

What I find interesting is that none of the leaders that lead the "Leave the EU" campaign are in a position to influence the implementation. The vast majority just quit. Stating that they have accomplished what they wanted to do. Yet have not stuck around to do any of the planning or actions that are needed to implement the will of the people.

Sound a bit fishy anyone?

The official start of the process is for the UK Government to trigger Article 50 of the EU Treaty. This begins a two years process of negotiations for exit and the two year period cannot be extended.

I wish to note that the term negotiation is a bit of a misnomer. While the UK Government may wish to negotiate keeping the benefits of being part of the EU, it is in a position of weakness in this. To remain part of the EU common market, the UK Government would have to agree to keeping the prime items that people that wanted to leave were concerned with. A prime example is the freedom of movement provision. Thus no heightened control of borders.

The main stream media keeps publishing claims by political heads that now the UK can negotiate it's own trade relationships. They forget to mention that at present the UK has no current independent trade treaties with anyone. They are all through the EU.

First off. There is no way that these treaties can be made in a 24 month period.
Second, The UK has been a place where countries could base to allow easy access to the EU market. That will no longer be the case.

So in a nutshell.

Things are all up in the air and nobody knows what is going to happen.

[Nemo]

I strong think that even starting the 2 year calendar yesterday, the entire civilized world will be at the destination in the handbasket before that calendar runs out.

Nemo

[gadget99]

Can't argue on that possibility at all myself.

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[JohnyMac]

Any news/rumors that other EU countries leaving the EU? I know that Switzerland wants to go back to the Swiss Franc.

[gadget99]

All of the fervour about that has calmed down big time.

I very much doubt that any others will attempt to leave.

Mainly due to the reality that the EU is going to make the the UK exit so painful for the UK, that anyone else will want to second think tying it.

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[Well-Prepared Witch]

Agreed.  I think the EU is going to do everything they can to make an example of the UK for "daring" to leave the EU.  I also think that the UK is going to hem, haw, and stall as long as they can before actually leaving the EU.  Those who understand what this will do to the country are going to try to find any way they can around this, so I'm not surprised the process hasn't started yet.  You can bet their lawyers are combing the rule books right now.

As to the world going to hell in a handbasket before the UK leaves the EU, well, some days I think we're all fussing over business-as-usual crap, and then there are the days that I open up the news and say that it's time to bunker down right now.  *shrug*  Who knows?

[Nemo]

Just keep up with the goings on and the bunker door open.

Nemo

[gadget99]

Hi All,

Thought I would do a quick update. Gonna use bullet points on this one.

1. The £ keeps taking hits and I suspect it will continue stay low for a good long while. ( $1.22 to the £1.00)
2. Nissan has announced that it is putting a major expansion investment in it's UK Factories on hold until the terms of Brexit are known.
3. The current government are sticking with the line that they are going to uphold the will of the people to leave the EU.
4. The Prime Minister announced that the government intends to trigger the Article 50 clause that starts the two year exit process by April.
5. The UK talking heads are sticking to the position that they can negotiate the UK staying part of the EU common market.
6. The EU leadership are saying either the UK exits with little or no continued benefits, or stay in the EU.
7. The major banks have announced that they may be pulling their assets out of the UK and change HQ's to another EU nation.

So get the popcorn out.

[Kbop]

 

thanks for the update!

[Well-Prepared Witch]

Very interesting! Thanks for taking the time to come and update is on how this is going.

[gadget99]

Hi all,

Was going to give an update, yet find myself at a loss here.

This whole Brexit thing has spiralled into utter confusion.

There is no way to predict the impacts and direction on a day to day basis.

Will get back to you all when there is any news that shows a direction


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[Nemo]

So is the entire country or just the liberals over there starting to freak out or is everyone just keeping the stiff upper lip or ? ? ? ?

Nemo

[gadget99]

Good question Nemo.

I do not really think anyone here has a grip on the situation. The for and against sides are still divided and sticking to the rehoteric. 

What has yet to appear is any semblance of middle ground, thoughtful planning or action.

This has kept the levels of uncertainty very high.



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[Well-Prepared Witch]

Yeah, I think we're all going to be dealing with a lot of uncertainty in the next few months.  I was thinking of you when I heard how much the dollar fell.  Hopefully you don't get in the hole with the exchange rate.

[thedigininja]

I should have bought more Bitcoins.