Brexit vote - June 23/24

[Well-Prepared Witch]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0Z10GK

Definitely an unstable time for the economy. In talking to a friend a couple weeks ago I said that a Brexit probably wouldn't topple the world's economy, but it certainly would remove another Jenga block from an already unstable pile.

[JohnyMac]

A couple of weeks ago we have been bouncing around the Brexit vote somewhere here on the forum plus the up and coming TTIP vote.

Since Gadget lives in the UK, he has had some first hand opinions on the subject. Go here to read.

IMO ONLY: If the UK does exit the EU I suspect that other countries will follow. Italy and Spain are two that come immediately to mind.

[gadget99]

Oh my.....

It is heating up over here in the UK over this.

I personally believe that the rest of the EU hopes the UK votes to exit.

1. If this happens the conceited and insignificant little island off the coast of Europe will be out of their hair. 
2. Soon after the vote, Scotland will hold another referendum and vote to leave the UK and stay in the EU. (There goes ALL of the oil reserves on the UK).
3. The EU while not perfect does represent a single entity in terms of power. Each country on its own does not hold much power in this world. Yet as a whole they have a place at the table.
4. Contrary to the hype. The EU is and will be a strong entity in the world. Think of the individual countries as being states and the EU being being the federal government.
5. The TIPP is a trade treaty between the US and the EU. The UK votes to leave and they are out of that deal.
6. The UK votes to leave and they are out of ALL current trade agreements that are with the EU.
7. What people here cannot get into their thick heads is that there is no longer a British Empire. The UK is a small Island with very little practical influence on the world alone.
8. The UK contrary to belief is not massively significant to the global economy. They do not mine, manufacture or produce anything of significance here. The number one industry here is financial services. Yep ..... that is an OH CRAP situation.

Now to me I am not really fussed. I don't really care. I have planned for this vote to go either way. They vote to leave and my US based income is going to be worth a massive amount for many years. 

It is going to be interesting.

[Nemo]

With all that planning and anticipation I am quite confident you have a boat somewhere close.  Right?

Nemo

[gadget99]

With all that planning and anticipation I am quite confident you have a boat somewhere close.  Right?

Nemo

Lol...

Yep have a plan on that one.

[Nemo]

Interesting thoughts in Washington Post.

Nemo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/15/what-would-britain-look-like-post-brexit-here-are-four-possibilities/

What would Britain look like post-Brexit? Here are four possibilities.
By Griff Witte June 15

When Britons go to the polls on June 23, they will have the opportunity to jettison their country’s membership in the European Union — an outcome popularly known as Brexit.

But the ballot won’t say anything about what should replace E.U. membership. That will be up to negotiators — representing Britain on one side and the governments of the 27 other E.U. member nations on the other — who will spend the next two years hammering out the terms of divorce if Britain votes to leave.

Pro-Brexit campaigners have said that Britain will continue to swap goods and services with E.U. nations; those imports and exports now make up about half the country’s trade volume. Brexit advocates also say that Britain will be free from stultifying Brussels bureaucracy once it leaves the E.U.

But how will that actually work? And what are the chances that Britain’s post-Brexit reality will match the rhetoric of those advocating for “out”? Those arguing for “in” say Brexit would be a leap in the dark, with leading economists warning of dire consequences.

READ THIS THEN GO TO THE LINK ABOVE TO READ THE 4 POSSIBILITES

[gadget99]

Well.... I said things were getting interesting and intense over here in the run up to the vote next week.

They got really intense today.

A female labour MP was killed today. She was campaigning for remaining within the EU.

She was shot and then stabbed.

Yep.... In a country with massive gun control.

The guy shouted " Britain First" as he walked away.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/16/labour-mp-jo-cox-shot-in-leeds-witnesses-report/

[JohnyMac]

WOW! Its all Trumps fault! 

Sorry to read this Gadget as nobody should be murdered for an opposite opinion.

Nothing on the news here as yet.

[Well-Prepared Witch]

Gadget, my condolences on Mrs. Cox's murder.  That's appalling and horrible.  There is just too much hate and fear in this world right now.

[JohnyMac]

I think Wellie wrote it best..."That's appalling and horrible.  There is just too much hate and fear in this world right now."

I just heard about it on the Bret Baier Report via Fox. Nothing was mentioned though as to why the drama happened. Mmmmm?
 

[gadget99]

Hi All,

Just an update on the MP killing and an intel report.

First of all on the MP Killing. The asshole was in court yesterday after being charged with the murder. When the judge asked him to state his name and addres. This guy answered with "Death to Traitors, Freedom for Britan" when asked again he answered the same.

He has links to Neo Nazi groups in the U.S. so this s getting interesting.

On the intel front. I just visited on of the local Asian stores (Pakastani) and in discussion I was asked if I was going to vote to stay in the EU. I said I was and then the guy said that everyone around there were going to vote to leave.

Interesting piece of info there.

[Well-Prepared Witch]

Interesting!  Most recent polling shows In up several points over Out.  It's going to be a nail-biter, I think!

[gadget99]

Interesting!  Most recent polling shows In up several points over Out.  It's going to be a nail-biter, I think!

Yes I believe it is going to be very close.

The dynamics of this thing are very complex at the moment.

[JohnyMac]

Add to the Brexit vote Thursday, rioting in France and large pro Nationalism rally's in Germany. Just for spice, add to that stew Hungary & Poland completely closing their borders to immigrants from the Middle East (Syria).

Then lets finish off that stew with our own economic situation and the up and coming Presidential conventions then onto the Presidential vote in November.

It's all fun and games till someone gets hurt 

[Well-Prepared Witch]

I certainly am reminded that the phrase "may you live in interesting times" is a curse! One more day, then probably another for tallying and we'll know. Then we get to watch the fallout whatever it may be.

[JohnyMac]

  warning

Show content

I was just thinking that the EU Elites will do anything to not have Brexit win tomorrow. I wonder how many precinct captains from Chicago have been working in the UK for the last several months. 

Just think of the thousands of dead people will be voting tomorrow. 

  warning is now over.

[brat]

I was just thinking that the EU Elites will do anything to not have Brexit win tomorrow.

Yep, like the people's vote will actually matter, like they do here....... 

[JohnyMac]

I am not for or against the Brerxit vote, however I think it will fail. There is too much for the EU Elites to loose.

Brexit supporters urged to take own pens to polling station amid fears of MI5 conspiracy

DJIA, is up at this writing 156 points.

[Grudgie]

Brexit is happening. Global stock markets in a doozy. Safe havens gold and bitcoin are up. British pound going down.

[gadget99]

Well.........

Oh Crap......

It begins.

I hate it when things like this happens.

Gonna be an interesting ride now.....

[JohnyMac]

A few thoughts...

DJIA futures down 577 at this writing
This was a very close vote, 52%/48%. Now you know why we have an electoral vote for President
All of Scotland was a "no" which as Gadget predicts they will probably secede. Similarly Northern Ireland.
Euro to USD down 3%
GBP to USD down 8%
GBP to Euro down 8%
Spot gold flat

It is bad for USA for the dollar to becoming stronger. Strong dollar = less exports which is bad for the US

We will have to wait and see how this plays out.

[gadget99]

The Scottish leader just announced they are going to hold a referendum and leave the UK.

Talk about pissed off. The Scots are REALLY upset.

[Well-Prepared Witch]

I am shocked that Britons voted so against their best interests. If the UK can make such a grievous mistake it makes me fear that our own country could make just as devastating a decision and elect someone like Trump. What's with this regrettable trend towards xenophobia and isolationism?

At any rate, I think the UK just voted itself into financial and political irrelevancy by leaving the EU. I bet in 10 years they'll be the small, inconsequential world player they were at the time of Henry VIII, especially with Scotland likely to leave Great Britain.

I'm not surprised or worried about today's market swings. We knew it'd be ugly today. I do worry about what happens next. What happens tomorrow and next week and next month? How will the dissolution of trade agreements, currency agreements, etc. affect markets? I really feel this is going to destroy the EU - France and the Netherlands are already talking about their own referendums.

Of course, the EU *might* dissolve without triggering a global depression.  It could just be another paradigm shift. But I think this is going to be seen as the day the global economy collapsed. Grim & pessimistic, I know, but I'm still reeling that the vote went this way.

Interesting opinion piece.
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2016/06/tomorrow-belongs-to-me.html

[JohnyMac]

I was just watching Mr. Trump in Turnberry, Scotland.

Trump just said that the USA will put the UK at the front of the line as we are great partners. This of course was opposite of what Mr. Obama said when he was in the UK last month.

I also think that Trump will use this recent vote to promote his campaign. "The people spoke." This will buoy his campaign and people who have been on the fence will join his march to be USA's next President.

With that written, I think the Democrat Elites, need to rethink Mrs. Clinton's march to be the President to the US. I suspect we will see the FBI recommending indictment to the DOJ next week. Remember, the DOJ can sit on it hoping that the new Pres/VP team wins.

Now who might that be? I suspect Biden/Warren.

Now the next two countries to watch leaving the EU is Italy and Spain. Germany isn't that far behind as Nationalism is rising in Germany. I suspect that Mrs. Merkel and her Christian Democratic Union party will be declared DOA in the next several months and the aforementioned Nationalism will rise to the top like fresh cream.

We live in interesting times folks. Keep a diary so when the winners rewrite history there will be a accurate recording of it.   

[Nemo]

Britian has voted to leave the European Union.  A couple other countries over there now are strongly considering it.  Blame this all on the great anti-immigrant part of the population.  We will be living in very interesting times.

News reported to expect complete dissolution of the European Union over the next couple years and likely a pretty bad recession (if not downright depression) over there, which of course will be extending here.  Yo Venezuelan depression, don't visit Canada, don't visit me, visit that guy across the sea.

Go get that extra jar of peanut butter.

Nemo

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/06/24/brexit-victory-sends-cameron-packing-roils-world-financial-markets.html