Zero for 41

[JoJo]

A list of the forty one things climate scientists got wrong. Full story at bottom of list. I remember all of these. Especially the global cooling, people went out and bought axes, chain saws, trucks and everything needed to stay warm in the coming cooling period which never came.


Here is the source for numbers 1-27. As you will see, the individual sources are not crackpots, but scientific studies and media reports on “expert” predictions. The sources for numbers 28-41 are linked individually.

    1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
    1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
    1970: Ice Age By 2000
    1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
    1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
    1972: New Ice Age By 2070
    1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
    1974: Another Ice Age?
    1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life
    1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
    1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes
    1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend
    1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
    1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
    1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
    1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
    1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
    2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
    2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
    2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
    2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
    2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
    2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
    2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
    2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
    2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015
    2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
    1968: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide
    1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
    1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years
    1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
    1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 90s
    1980: Peak Oil In 2000
    1996: Peak Oil in 2020
    2002: Peak Oil in 2010
    2006: Super Hurricanes!
    2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
    1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
    1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
    1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
    1970s: Killer Bees!


https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2019/09/20/nolte-climate-experts-are-0-41-with-their-doomsday-predictions/

[Kbop]

some of these occurred.  Typhoon Haiyan would be one example.
some were changed based on human actions.  Ozone depletion was mostly fixed by the elimination of industrial CFCs.
some were altered by later actions or understandings.  The ice age signal was over run by the CO2 signal in the atmosphere.
some were flat out wrong

science is a living and evolving operation using fail-able humans.  it does improve over time - as we learn more.
i would argue that human understanding has improved since Thales and Aristotle thought the world was a flat plane under a crystal bowl.

[JoJo]

Ozone depletion was mostly fixed by the elimination of industrial CFCs.
some were altered by later actions or understandings.  The ice age signal was over run by the CO2 signal in the atmosphere.

 If I remember correctly it was proven that the Ozone hole expands and contracts in a normal cycle. CFC's had nothing to do with it.

[Kbop]

this is a wiki - but there are several papers referenced in the IBID.
the thinning of the ozone layer from natural flux is a thing.
the CFC's caused thinning way beyond natural changes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion

in the last few years, some countries have started using CFC's again and the effect was noticeable.

[pkveazey]

Ozone depletion was mostly fixed by the elimination of industrial CFCs.
some were altered by later actions or understandings.  The ice age signal was over run by the CO2 signal in the atmosphere.

 If I remember correctly it was proven that the Ozone hole expands and contracts in a normal cycle. CFC's had nothing to do with it.

You heard right. The Ozone hole opens and closes in lockstep with the 11 year sunspot cycle. People talk a lot of smack about the Ozone Hole when they don't even know what CFC's do to the Ozone. Here's what is supposed to happen. I say supposed because I'm parroting scientists. Oxygen is O2 and Ozone is O3. The CFC's knock one of the O's off of the O3 and it makes O2. Bam!!! That's it. What? Everybody doesn't die??? Nope. When the hole is at its widest, more ultraviolet light gets through the hole and the Henny Penny's of the world start screaming that we all are going to die of Skin Cancer. OK, every eleven years just stay inside for the eleventh year and you're safe. By the way, the eleventh year is when all the Ham Radio Operators want to be inside playing with their radios.

[Kbop]

Like many complex systems with multiple inputs - there are several variables.
the CFC's  - specifically the available chlorine (and bromine) - acts as a catalyst.  its simple chemistry.  the effect was noted and noticeable.  I'm not a chemist and i haven't played one on TV but i understand the chemistry.

the amount of ozone in the atmosphere does fluctuate with the radiant UV, the major source is the sun.  the sun goes through several cycles that effect the amount of UV that hits our atmosphere.  the CFC degradation theory was backed up by measurements of both chlorine and ozone amounts.  it was verified in repeated lab testing.  the subsequent growwth in the amount of ozone in the atmosphere was correlated with the change of chlorine in the atmosphere.  the recent increase in the ozone hole outside the expected amount was correlated with an increase of CFCs from an unknown source.  this didn't happen during the last cycle.  the effect is measurable - repeatable and predictable.  You are right that a single ozone molecule broken apart wont hurt you - but billions or trillions might.  its all about the replenishment rate versus the destruction rates. 

as far as the effects go, i'm not a fan of melanoma or crop failure.  ask people who were farming in the Murray Darling then. what they think.  The crop losses were measured and measurable - fruiting plants are susceptible to UV burn too.  there is one good effect, the added uv create nitrates and nitrites- its a nice fertilizer.