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Author Topic: Second Run On Crude, PM's  (Read 849 times)

Offline JohnyMac

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Second Run On Crude, PM's
« on: March 21, 2022, 12:53:50 PM »
Looks like we are starting our second run on Crude and PM's with crude at $110- a barrel (up 5%) and Gold at $1,936 (+11%) so far today.

Dow, down 104 points.
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Offline DMCakhunter

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2022, 04:59:25 PM »
WTI finished at $112.49
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2022, 06:00:41 PM »
We are starting to creep up again in price folks. The .25% increase in interest rates was like spitting into the ocean. I was predicting .75% to see how the market reacted. Based on inflation, our interest rate should be between 8-10%. The prime after that rather anemic 25 Bpnt bump is 3.5% today. The Fed is hesitant to do this because of the 'VIG' that the Treasury would have to pay on the $30T national debt.

This is our and the global future...Recession > Depression > Loss of the Petrodollar to the Petroyaun > War III > Digital currency > Build, Back, Better (The Great Reset). In that order.

How is your prepping coming along?
 
Just bought 200-gallons of petrol today. $4.41 a gallon. Not to be used for vehicles, to be used in things like chainsaws.
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Offline DMCakhunter

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2022, 11:41:16 AM »
Maybe the Russians are getting smarter on how to play the sanctions game.
Will not be good for the dollar on the global stage when China starts paying for Saudi oil in yaun instead of dollars.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russia-demand-hostile-states-pay-rubles-gas
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2022, 01:55:24 PM »
Going to heaven on a derrick.

Nemo
Quote
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#WTI-Crude

WTI Crude      114.23   +4.96   +4.54%   (15 Minutes Delay)
Brent Crude    121.02   +5.54   +4.8%   (15 Minutes Delay)
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2022, 01:59:21 PM »
PMs.  Reporting delay unknown.

Nemo

https://www.monex.com/

Quote
Gold           $1,939.00   +16.00

Silver          $25.21        +0.29

Platinum     $1,025.00    -6.00

Palladium    $2,535.00    +7.00
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2022, 03:37:23 PM »
Oil dropping.

Nemo

https://oilprice.com/

Quote
11 minutes ago

WTI Crude ?    101.0    -6.85    -6.35%
Brent Crude ?    107.9    -5.54    -4.88%

Partly because  (but I suspect not a big part)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Crude-Oil-Production-Rises-For-First-Time-In-10-Weeks.html

Quote
U.S. Crude Oil Production Rises For First Time In 10 Weeks
By Julianne Geiger - Mar 31, 2022, 12:00 PM CDT

U.S. crude oil production has risen?albeit modestly?for the first time in ten weeks, the latest EIA data shows.

Weekly U.S. field production of crude oil rose to 11.7 million barrels per day, according to EIA data, up from 11.6 million bpd in the previous seven weeks.

U.S. oil producers have been in the crosshairs since oil started rising?which was before Russia invaded Ukraine--for failing to ramp up crude oil production. The oil industry has further been accused of price gouging, which the U.S. government said has led to high prices at the pump for drivers.

Meanwhile, U.S. oil producers claim that shareholders are still demanding fiscal restraint, and the regulatory environment isn?t welcoming to additional investments. Even at $200 oil, Pioneer Natural Resources? chief executive Scott Sheffield said last month, U.S. shale companies aren?t going to change their growth plans to switch to an aggressive drilling program.

Nevertheless, the Baker Hughes U.S. oil rig count shows that oil companies in the United States have added 39 drilling rigs over the last 10 weeks. Crude oil production, however, lags rig additions.

Of course, these production figures provided by the EIA are estimated based on short-term forecasts. And since they are rounded to the nearest 100,000 barrels, it is impossible to know how much?if any?of an increase there is at all.

The EIA says that its crude oil production figures ?includes lease condensate and is estimated using a combination of short-term forecasts for the lower 48 states and the latest available production estimates from Alaska?.Weekly crude oil production estimates are rounded to the nearest 100,000 b/d at the U.S. and lower 48 state level,? according to the EIA?s website.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilpice.com
« Last Edit: March 31, 2022, 03:40:28 PM by Nemo »
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2022, 02:05:02 PM »
Things on markets looking rather strange.

Nemo

https://oilprice.com/

Quote
All Prices
OPEC Blends
Canadian Blends
U.S. Blends

WTI Crude ?    100.7    -2.40    -2.33%
Brent Crude ?    103.5    -2.49    -2.35%
Natural Gas ?    7.245    +0.219    +3.12%
Heating Oil ?    3.956    +0.121    +3.16%


Louisiana Light ?    105.7    -5.94    -5.32%
Bonny Light ?    108.3    -6.77    -5.88%
Opec Basket ?    112.5    -1.89    -1.65%
Mars US ?    101.7    -6.68    -6.16%
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2022, 08:30:03 AM »
But look at today regarding WTI.

Nemo

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/commoditydetails/fi-auvwzr?duration=1D

Quote
USOILUS Oil WTI - Jun 2022
US Oil WTI - Jun 2022  103.78‎+4.03%
103.78
market open
‎+4.02 (‎+4.03%)
as of 5/11/2022, 08:19 AM EDT
bold added
« Last Edit: May 11, 2022, 08:15:09 PM by Nemo »
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Offline Sir John Honeybucket

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2022, 02:13:40 PM »
At my local pumps, price jumped from 4.10 to 4.25/gallon from last night to this mornin. Diesel is well over 5.25/gallon.


Sir John Honeybucket
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Offline RB in GA

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2022, 05:32:42 PM »
10 cent increase in North Georgia (3.95 regular unleaded). Interesting inflation note- I was shopping online at Walmart, considering adding another 7 gallon Aqua-tainer to my stores (IMO you can never store too much water)- yesterday it was 16.99, today 18.99. I haven't checked, but I wonder if that's relatively across the board for durable plastics.
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2022, 07:52:35 PM »
Interesting gents.

Petrol went to $4.59 a gallon today local.
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Offline Felix

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2022, 09:47:02 PM »
Not endorsing or panning, but here are some thoughts regarding diesel fuel:

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?pli=1#inbox/FMfcgzGpFqWRbTHdmqXFmSkShffjCFdJ

If even half true, could spell big problemo.   And given the signs that some of our woes could well fall into the "engineered" category, worth taking a look at?


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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2022, 12:30:18 AM »
Need a better link Felix.  That just goes to Gmail home page.

Nemo
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2022, 07:21:29 AM »
As it gets cold, it will get tighter.  And more expensive.

Nemo

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil-inventories-lowest-since-1985-bad-omen-winter


Quote
Opinion
Updated on August 17, 2022 5:21pm EDT
Oil inventories lowest since ?85 bad omen for winter
Oil has dropped 10.66% this month but that could soon reverse
By Phil Flynn FOXBusiness

The Biden administration has been celebrating the president?s decision to release a record amount of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) saying it is the main reason why gasoline prices have fallen.

Yet will that move have a lasting, positive effect on gas prices or could this move to drain our oil reserves create a much larger risk to the economy as we head into winter?

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve announced this week that the oil supply in the SPR fell to the lowest level since March 1985. That is a major concern because, despite the record releases from inventories, we are not seeing supplies of oil products like gasoline, diesel, and home heating oil build ahead of winter.

According to the Energy Information Administration, in every major category, inventories of just about everything petroleum-related, are below where we?d like them to be. Now you might think that when Biden announced a record-breaking 180-million-barrel release from our reserve in March, we might expect our usable oil products to see some increase in supply. Sadly that has not been the case. Data released this week from the EIA showed that U.S. crude oil inventories are 6% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Data for gasoline was even worse coming in 8% below the 5-year average. Yet what was most disturbing is that diesel and heating fuels in the distillate category are a shocking 23% below the five-year average. The distillate category is especially concerning because we need adequate supplies of those fuels to get through winter. In the event of a major disruption of supply, refiners will look to the SPR as a safety net to keep factories running and keep people warm in the winter.

Part of the problem is the fact that most of those SPR barrels were exported. U.S. crude exports hit a record 5 million barrels a day last week. Not only is it a concern about the total amount of oil that is being exported, but it is also the type of oil. In general, in the SPR, there are two major category types of oil. One is a sweet variety and the other sour. Because U.S. refiners prefer sour, it is sorry to see that most of that type of oil has been exported. Not only are supplies of oil at the lowest level since 1985, the ratio of sour to sweet is at a historic low. For the first time, there is less sour than sweet.

The other problem with the sweet-to-sour ratio is that sour crude yields more distillate than the type of supply we are most in need of and sees its strongest demand in winter. This demand for distillates globally could go through the roof and leave the U.S. undersupplied because of the war in Ukraine. Europe is trying to cut off its reliance on Russia for natural gas which means that they may switch from natural gas to burning distillates or oil to keep the lights on.

This was a point brought up by the new OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais. Not only is he warning of a potential supply squeeze for oil in the coming months, but he is also suggesting that fuel switching in Europe could cause major diesel price spikes this winter.

He was quoted as saying: "We are running on thin ice, if I may use that term because spare capacity is becoming scarce. The likelihood of a [supply and price] squeeze is there." Mr. Al Ghais was also asked why the cartel only added 100,000 barrels of day to the oil market after Biden had visited the Saudi Crown Prince. He said that OPEC had to ration its "severely limited" reserves of output with "great caution." He said it would be unwise at this point to release all OPEC oil on the market and leave none in reserve saying if they did that it would leave the world with little or no spare capacity in the event of an emergency.

This brings us back to Biden's decision to release oil from the reserve. It is clear that Biden, unlike OPEC, was willing to gamble that he could drain our supply of SPR oil to lower gasoline prices, win a few votes and pray that we don't get a cold winter that could leave Americans out in the cold. What is worse, we might not have to wait until winter to feel the potential negative impact of Biden's strategically poor decision. So far, the Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively mild, but we are getting into the heart of the season that ends on November 30th.
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2022, 09:58:10 AM »
LOL.

I should not chuckle however, "the chickens are coming home to roost".

The number one discussion at our Bible Study group was "heat" at last weeks class. Specifically, the price of oil, propane, coal, and wood this season. I am sure this discussion is happening in many parts o these USA.

Usually, I put up 6-cords of wood. This year I am putting up seven. For my wood, (Triaxle load of logs) I paid ~$72- a cord. 7 x $72- = $504- plus the sweat equity and about 4-gallons of nonethanol petrol at $5.59 a gallon.

My heart goes out to the folks that can not afford heat, food, medicine, etc. this coming 6-months.

As a side note, I pay all of my mom's bills. Last year, before this years electric price hike, my mom spent on the average, ~$350- a month on electric. Yes, she has electric heat. Over a 6-month period, that is ~$2,100-. Now she can afford it as I make up the difference when money gets tight for her. I will not tell a 90-year old lady that weighs about 100-pounds, to drop her thermostat to 68-degrees. Ain't going to happen!

Pray for all the folks that will be running the "white line" when it comes to being warm, having food, or medicine this winter. 
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2022, 01:14:24 PM »
Things (to me) are looking like your mom might spend a fair bit of winter visiting you.  I would begin plans for that.

Nemo
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2022, 11:47:10 AM »
Recent reports indicated oil prices may be rising in the near future.  Looks like they might have started today.  Pricing below is within past 15 minutes or so.

Nemo

WTI an Brent Crude are the benchmark prices to watch.  But I suspect most all here knew that already.


https://oilprice.com/

Quote
WTI Crude ?    96.19    +3.13    +3.36%
Brent Crude ?    104.1    +3.10    +3.07%
Murban Crude ?    102.9    +2.56    +2.55%
Natural Gas ?    9.435    +0.139    +1.50%


Louisiana Light ?    96.13    -2.14    -2.18%
Bonny Light ?    100.7    -2.45    -2.37%
Opec Basket ?    104.6    +0.58    +0.56%
Mars US ?    91.66    +1.19    +1.32%
« Last Edit: August 29, 2022, 06:07:22 PM by Nemo »
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2022, 03:18:29 PM »
DJIA, been up and down today too.

Has anybody seen July's GDP? I can't find it anywhere.
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2022, 06:12:58 PM »
I look around a bit for the GDP but all I can find is numbers by quarters.  May only be figured on that basis.  I don't know.

As to the DJIA today---  down 184.41 / -0.57%.  As far as the year-- Year-to-Date  down 11.67%

For PMs---   Gold  $1,743.00
+0.00

Silver $18.79
-0.15

Platinum  $870.00
+$3.00

Palladium  $2,165.00
+37.00


Nemo
 
« Last Edit: August 29, 2022, 06:17:52 PM by Nemo »
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God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2022, 08:04:29 AM »
New oil price news.

Nemo

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

Quote
   WTI Crude    71.02   -0.44   -0.62%   (15 Hours Delay)
   Brent Crude    76.10   -0.05   -0.07%   (14 Hours Delay)
   Murban Crude    75.40   +0.56   +0.75%   (16 Minutes Delay)
   Natural Gas    6.245   +0.283   +4.75%   (15 Hours Delay)
   Gasoline    2.056   +0.007   +0.34%   (15 Hours Delay)
   Heating Oil    2.794   -0.086   -2.99%   (15 Hours Delay)
   Mars US    65.22   -0.94   -1.42%   (14 Hours Delay)
   Opec Basket    79.77   -3.39   -4.08%   (4 Days Delay)
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God created Man, Col. Sam Colt made him equal, John Moses Browning turned equality to perfection, Gaston Glock turned perfection into plastic fantastic junk.

Offline Jackalope

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #21 on: December 10, 2022, 09:46:39 PM »
Our local unleaded price has dropped down to $2.53/gal.
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Offline Nemo

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #22 on: December 10, 2022, 10:11:22 PM »
Best around me is $2.87 at Sams Club.  E-15 was $1.99 over Turkey Day weekend with a special going on at Sheetz, but back to the $2.79 or so range now.  Glad my truck is E-85 compatible but mileage is reduced by 25% with that stuff.  Only loses about 1mpg with the E-15.

Nemo
« Last Edit: December 11, 2022, 03:24:27 PM by Nemo »
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Offline Jackalope

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #23 on: December 11, 2022, 02:18:06 PM »
Regular unleaded was $2.52/gallon this morning.
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Offline JohnyMac

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Re: Second Run On Crude, PM's
« Reply #24 on: December 11, 2022, 09:39:57 PM »
Our 87 octane is $3.79 a gallon. Diesel is now down to $5.99 a gallon.
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