The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning - Book Recomendation

[gadget9901]

Hi all,

I saw a Joe Rogan podcast interview with Peter Zeihan.

They were discussing the coming decades based upon population demographics, statistics and geopolitics on a global level. The predictions Zeihan was discussing did not paint a very nice picture. I found his analytical explanations for why things are going to get bad compelling and believable.

So I bought his book (The end of the world is just the beginning) it is non-fiction and lays bare a great many things. I recommend it as a good prepper read.

Zeihan is an American Geopolitical analyst and author. He was an analyst and later Vice President for the Austin - based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor for 12 yrs. He now consults for Business and Governmental entities as well as being an author.

Here is the summary of the book from Wikipedia. (It explains things better than I could)

This book is differentiated at the level of six different sectors mentioned below.

Transport

Finance

Energy

Materials

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Within each of the above sectors, the author investigates the prospects for each major country. Very often there are some relations or correlations between the prospects of a country across the six sectors. If a country is expected to do well in one sector, it is often expected to do well in several sectors as well, and vice versa.

For instance, across sectors he expects the US to fare relatively well. It has an extensive network of maritime transportation across very favorable waterways, including optimal access to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. It has the deepest and best integrated capital markets. Because of the shale oil revolution, it has become increasingly independent regarding its energy needs. And, it has a most productive agricultural sector, being a major food exporter, due to a favorable climate, and abundant fertile lands.

On the other hand, the author is rather concerned about the prospects for both China and Russia across several of the mentioned sectors. They both suffer from an aging demographic profile, less than optimal transportation waterways network, and their respective capital markets are not nearly as deep and integrated as the US (in part due to sanctions against Russia, and a closed capital market in China). Additionally, China imports much of its petroleum and food requirements. In a deglobalized world, both countries will face major challenges on several fronts, according to the author.

Similarly, Europe will face several challenges of its own including aging demographics, energy dependence vulnerability, and lack of access to industrial materials. Africa and India will have numerous problems, including the most existential one, the ability to feed its citizens.

[JohnyMac]

Interesting gadget.

Based on North Americas diversity of product, e.g. agriculture, minerals, fuel, etc., I am surprised that other countries have not tried to conquer it in the past.

Then there is this...

Yamamoto said, while declining the offer to invade America, that there would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.

A Russian General Officer who was being asked about the possibility of invading the US, said no because there would be a scoped rifle behind every tree.

[zanedclark]

I have also read this book.  Very good read.

zane

[Sir John Honeybucket]

It's a very thought provoking read.  Peter Zeihan in general gives thought provoking ideas, based on (what seems to me) to be sound , historical trend analysis.  Look for him on YouTube, also.


de Sir John Honeybucket

[gadget9901]

The book and his interview were serious food for thought.

As preppers we can much of the time get focused on smallish pictures. The world is unbelievably complex.

I do try hard to keep a firm eye on the big picture as much as possible.

That is why our prep focus is on general capacities. Filling out to manage circumstances of things as opposed to prepping for singular events.

I focus on filling our capabilites.

[Deathstyle]

His interview on joe rogan seemed to indicate pro illegal immigration and anti trump biases. So on those impressions I've been guarded towards his analysis since we've seen how much those biases have affected others no matter their particular roles in society.

With that said my cautious view of Peter and his analysis is only based on JRE interview.

[gadget9901]

His interview on joe rogan seemed to indicate pro illegal immigration and anti trump biases. So on those impressions I've been guarded towards his analysis since we've seen how much those biases have affected others no matter their particular roles in society.

With that said my cautious view of Peter and his analysis is only based on JRE interview.

After reading his book.

I am still trying to wrap my head around his predictions.

While I can see the analytical basis for his conclusions. There is a great deal of complexity in the narrative. He does admit that his take on things is not set in stone.

I am treating it all as I do most things. I add it to my awareness of possibilities.

Most of the times the world is so complex that as things happen we get unpleasant surprises.