Black Swan Event

[JohnyMac]

I have been hearing a little noise of late concerning an up coming "Black Swan" event. Well this morning I did a little research and this is what I found out.

Wikipedia definition:
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major impact, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.

OK, so I did a little more web searching and I found this article written back in March of this year describing 15 black swan scenarios - Here are the first 3.

Business Insider wrote:
#1 War With Syria - U.S. Senator John McCain is now publicly calling for U.S. airstrikes against Syria.  A military conflict with Syria becomes more likely with each passing day.

#2 War With Iran - A war in the Middle East involving Iran could literally erupt at any time.  The following is from a Reuters news report that was issued on Monday....

    President Barack Obama appealed to Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday to give sanctions time to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, but the Israeli prime minister offered no sign of backing away from possible military action, saying his country must be the "master of its fate."

#3 A Disorderly Greek Debt Default - Many reporters in Europe seem to think that this is becoming increasingly likely.  So what would a disorderly Greek debt default mean for the global financial system?  A leaked report that was authored by the Institute of International Finance says that a disorderly Greek debt default would have some very serious consequences.  You can read the full text of that leaked report right here.

To read the entire article go to....
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-06/home/31126333_1_unemployment-rate-economy-black-swan

I also read somewhere (Sorry can't find it at the moment) that one of these events would not throw the US into a SHTF scenario but two could. Some would say that we already have one which is the true unemployment rate in the country of upwards of 20%. Some might say we have two if you count the financial situation in the EU. So what will be the third?

So for kicks and giggles please take a minute or two and read the above article published my Business Insider and select than post on this subject line, what you think the top three black swan events could be in 2013. I will close the voting at 11:59Pm tomorrow, Monday October 15, 2012 and compile your thoughts. I will pick the top five black swan events you choose and put them into a poll, which as a group we can vote on and watch for the next several months.

Have fun!  [url=http://www.freesmileys.or

 

 

[JohnyMac]

Surprise....

ABC Reported:
Two Navy vessels collided this afternoon off the coast of northeastern Florida, there were no injuries aboard the submarine and cruiser involved in the collision.

According to a Navy statement the submarine USS Montpelier (SSN 765) and the Aegis cruiser USS San Jacinto (CG 56) collided at approximately 3:30 p.m. ET.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/navy-submarine-and-cruiser-collide-off-florida/

Looking at the definition of a black swan; part all all of a black swan event is a 'surprise.'

What if this event triggered a melt down of the reactor? How would that effect the mid-Atlantic states? Would it cause the market to collapse on Monday? Would it cause the evacuation of the mid-Atlantic states? Would the market crashing and the evacuation of the coast be the cause of the delaying of the Presidential election? Food for thought.

Just saying 
 

[JohnyMac]

Here are my three whoops four black swan events...

1) Economic
    - China goes into recession
    - Japan collapses
    - Greece, than Spain, than Portugal, than Italy...You get the picture collapses
    - US Stock market has a 50% correction...
    ....Pick your poison.
2) Worst winter in 100 years (El Nino returns)
    - Snow
    - Ice Storms
    - Temperature
    - Grid periodically goes down
3) War
    - Middle East
    - Oil is cut off
4) Presidential Election
    - Assassination attempt
    - Frustrated voters
    - Riots

[Outonowhere]

Here are my three whoops four black swan events...

1) Economic
    - China goes into recession (Not likely, they would just start a war to fix it)
    - Japan collapses (Very likely, along with the rest of the "peaceful" EU)
    - Greece, than Spain, than Portugal, than Italy...You get the picture collapses
    - US Stock market has a 50% correction... (Fed will do what it needs to till it can't, then it wont be a "correction")
    ....Pick your poison.
2) Worst winter in 100 years (El Nino returns) (I prefer the cold lol)
    - Snow
    - Ice Storms
    - Temperature
    - Grid periodically goes down (You all better be prepped for this anyways)
3) War
    - Middle East (This would result in WW3 with many countries outside of the ME backing them)
    - Oil is cut off (Some people want this to happen as a reason to force drilling here again, for a profit)
4) Presidential Election
    - Assassination attempt (This would only be a false flag event)
    - Frustrated voters (Agree, leading to...)
    - Riots (Give it a couple weeks...)

[JohnyMac]

All good points OOKW. I like the cold too. As of the end of day today, I have put in 4 cords.

This week is the states first muzzle loader deer season and I am torn...Put more wood away or hunt. I am working on the wood pile till noonish than going hunting in the PM.

Thanks for playing...

[Grudgie]

Seeing the most recent Presidential debate has got me thinking of another likeley Black Swan event. If either party trys to impose nation wide gun laws or another assualt weapons ban, we have a potential catastrophe on our hands. Think of the the blood bath that would ensue if weapons were being confiscated door to door by Poliece departments and the national guard. They have a list of all the registered weapons. What would you all do? Would you bury your guns and become fellons and criminals? Would you shoot back and become murderers and die as martyrs? Would you simply give your arms over to authority like the law abiding citizen you proclaim to be?

If pro Constitutionalists and militia groups became orginized we could have a civil war on our hands. Think of all the military who would refuse orders to fight agianst fellow Americans and think of the states actually suceeding from the United States. Would another president start a war agianst threat of succession? Think of the dozens of 'Boston Massacres' that woud happen.

[JohnyMac]

Interesting point Grudgie.

The next 3 weeks leading up to the election will be an interesting time. And if Romney wins the lame duck period until January 20th, 2013.

[Outonowhere]

Would you bury your guns and become fellons and criminals? Would you shoot back and become murderers and die as martyrs? Would you simply give your arms over to authority like the law abiding citizen you proclaim to be?

I will say that THEY want this chaos so they have an excuse to install the non velvet gloved iron fist tyranny they have desired for so long. 

But I whole heartedly disagree with you VERY strongly on one point.  Standing up for your rights and killing another who wishes to forcefully deny ANY of your GOD GIVEN rights is NOT murder...
And yes, those who stand alone will be martyrs.  That is why we must band together before SHTF so we a much (for lack of better term atm) "easier" time doing it later.

"Unjust laws make just men outlaws."  I wouldn't lose any sleep... Hell, hard not to be a criminal in this growing police state.

[crudos]

Mitt Swanney, the black swan. 

[JohnyMac]

Crudos, you have way to much time on your hands.  [img]http://www.arrse.co.uk/at

Hey I have some firewood that needs to be stacked...I will supply the beer and a steak dinner 

[crudos]

Crudos, you have way to much time on your hands.  [img]http://www.arrse.co.uk/at

Hey I have some firewood that needs to be stacked...I will supply the beer and a steak dinner 

I couldn't resist JM, sorry. Back to Black Swan..... 

[JohnyMac]

LOL man!  Still not up for a little wood stacking? 

[Kentactic]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/obama-terror-attack_n_1978780.html?utm_hp_ref=new-york&ir=New%20York

[Outonowhere]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/obama-terror-attack_n_1978780.html?utm_hp_ref=new-york&ir=New%20York

Again from someone that the FBI hand picked and groomed to be a patsy.such convenient timing!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/quazi-mohammad-rezwanul-ashan-nafis-federal-reserve-terror-shocks-family_n_1978596.html