2014: Inflation or Deflation

[JohnyMac]

I would like to throw out a new topic called 2014: Inflation or Deflation.

Goal:
The goal is to determine if over the next 12 months, are prices going up or down on certain basic household items in our collective AO's.
 
Why:
I think 2014 is going to be a year of change. Hopefully for the better; however with the reporting of January and February's economic indicators, I think it will be for the worst. Thanks to our busy lives we really do not take the time to look around us and absorb what is happening - Specifically are things increasing or decreasing in price and by what % or $.

When:
The second Monday of each month the folks who participate, are going to report on the price of ten to twenty items commonly used and found in your AO on this subject topic.

How:
Leading up to the second Monday of each month, PREPCOM will send out a reminder to all who are participating. Then that week as you visit stores within your AO, record current prices on the list of items we all agree to. Then post your finding's  on this subject line. I will then compile the list and post by the end of the second week of each month. You can compile your own list to keep me honest if you would like.

What:
You need to come up with the list of items. To get the process going here are my recommendations:

> Petrol (Gas) Regular price per gallon or Liter
> Heating Oil price per gallon or Liter
> Propane price per gallon or liter
> Hanes Men's cotton T-Shirts 3-pack
> Hanes women's cotton panties 3-pack
> Jiff Peanut butter 16 ounces*
> Hamburger 80/20 price per pound or kilo*
> Chicken Thighs price per pound or kilo*
> Scottie Toilet Paper single roll
> Bread price per pound or kilo
> Red Potatoes price per pound or kilo
> Fresh green beans price per pound or kilo
> Macintosh apples price per pound or kilo
> Whole milk price per Quart or liter
> Orange juice price per Quart or liter (Brand?)

What are yours? Lets keep the list short so not to be a burden to the folks who participate. I have 15 listed maybe it should be less/more.

In closing, Unchainedpreppers has grown to over 300 forum members with about 30 who regularly participate. The majority of the forum members are in North America. We also have members outside our large AO. Argentina, Australia and the United Kingdom come immediately to mind. With our large audience it would be great for all to see how inflation or deflation is affecting you and others over a 12 month time line.

If you would like to participate please post your suggestions for items we are going to report on by Friday (3/7/2014). I will then take your thoughts and reduce them down to "the list."

Thank you for participating! 
 

[Well-Prepared Witch]

I have no way to do the heating oil or propane, but here are my suggestions.  (Great idea BTW - give us some hard data to look at, not just anecdotal or memory-based feelings.)

> Petrol (Gas) Regular price per gallon or Liter - pick either one gas station to always use OR three gas stations and average
> Jiff Peanut butter 16 ounces (note: plain Jif, not Simply Jif or Natural Jif - I usually get one of the latter, but for comparison purposes I'd look at the plain)
> Hamburger 80/20 price per pound or kilo
> Chicken Thighs price per pound or kilo (note: I think chicken breasts might be a better choice since they're more ubiquitous with many mainstream people's cooking habits and available recipes, store brand, not Perdue)
> Scottie Toilet Paper single roll (note: I might suggest a six pack - again, I think mainstream buyers typically buy more than one at a time)
> Bread price per pound or kilo (note: price per pound is useful, but I'd pick a brand of bread that is common to most of the country - do they make Wonderbread still? - and count how much one loaf costs)
> Macintosh apples price per pound or kilo
> Whole milk price per Quart or liter
>Tylenol - I have had serious trouble for months finding plain old Tylenol, so maybe a box of Tylenol Cold & Sinus?
>Flour - How much for 5 pounds of flour (I'd suggest King Arthur flour, but that's because I know & buy that brand)
>Sugar - How much for a pound of sugar (Domino brand)
>Cereal - a box of generic Cheerios (generics almost never go on sale or have coupons, same as staples like flour/sugar)
>Coffee - Pick a brand, per pound

I'd also suggest checking spot copper, aluminum, crude oil, bushel of wheat, bushel of corn, cocoa, coffee - these can all be looked up online every week/month.  This can tell us if it's the cost of the base commodity and/or price mark ups in the grocery store.

I'm in to track here! I've been thinking about doing it for a while, but never had an impetus to do it.

[JohnyMac]

Wellie, if nobody has told you this today they should - YOU ROCK!

Great suggestions!!

Lets hear what other suggest.
 

[brat]

My thoughts are it's going to be almost impossible to specify a "brand". We all live in different geographic areas and there are going to be "homegrown" brands used. Just for an example, I've never, ever, heard of King Arthur flour. I knew he had a round table at one time and Lancelot was supposedly doin his wife, but down here it's Martha White (like on the Grand Ole Opry), White Lily or Gold Medal flour and corn meal, with a preference to the first. As for some of the "fresh" produce, I can my own green beans and pintos from my garden and have an orchard full of apples, peaches, pears and plums. So I don't shop for those types of things.

I know that the idea behind using a "national" brand to get a baseline, but couldn't generic, as long as size/quantity, be a gauge of the costs of product ? With "local" dairies, there's no National brand of milk. My co-op where I buy my fuel is going to be cheaper than Exxon/Shell/BP. Why I buy there anyway.  Just my 2 cents.

As for a list...

Acetaminophen, 250 tabs of 500mg.
Flour per 5lb bag 
Sugar per 5lb bag
Folgers (if you need a "national gauge") Coffee per pound
Regular Gas - lowest octane price per gallon
On road (taxable) diesel per gallon (not ag diesel, boy that would skew your data)
Propane price per gallon
Peanut butter 16 ounces
Hamburger ground beef price per pound (I eat the 80-20 or 90-10, but the truer price of beef may be the fat and all, not leaner cuts, which require further processing that adds to the price)
A Whole Chicken 
Toilet Paper six pack
Bread price per loaf (again local bakeries to consider)
Red Potatoes price per 5 pounds (even though I grow these, I do buy supplemental)
Whole milk price per gallon (local dairies)
 

[JohnyMac]

Great points brat!

As you wrote, it is OK to pick a local brand if the national is not available as long as your reporting is consistent. We really want to see or get a trend of prices. So if King Arthur is $4.50 for a 5 lb bag in your AO and only Gold Metal is available in your AO @ $3.50 for a 5 lb bag; we are looking for changes in price or size.

On another note: It's to bad that King Arthur is not available in your AO as it is a superior flour (I am a flour snob  ).

Great list and thanks for wanting to participate. 
   

[Well-Prepared Witch]

JM - thanks! That makes my day.

Brat, you make some excellent points.  Maybe we should stick to generics where possible. Brand names often jack up prices so they can have sales or coupons anyway. My condolences on no KA flour, though. It's top notch!

[brat]

Must be good stuff, although Lester Flatt and Earl Scruggs would beg to differ. 

I can see the replys coming.... Who are they   

Nevermind.

[JohnyMac]

OK folks we have only three folks willing to check 10-15 basic prices once a month. Who else is going to play'?

Don't let the flour debate scare ya' away. 

[crudos]

I'll willing to check-in with prices. We do most of our shopping at the local regional chain store (Piggly Wiggly), and infrequently at a Walmart SuperCenter (which I despise going to).

[JohnyMac]

Thx Crudos!

As you marketing guru's know, in order to get good results on a survey of this type, you need a large sampling. 

[JohnyMac]

O-Kay, here is our monthly shopping list. Thank you Wellie and brat for your suggestions. 

Please keep in mind you do NOT have to buy this stuff. Just jot down the prices once a month and post to this subject line.

Lets try to get those "competitive shops" posted by Thursday of this week. Then starting the second Monday of April and on.

The more people who participate the better   

Thank you in advance for all who are participating. 

> Tylenol (acetaminophen), 250 tabs of 500mg.
> Gold Metal Flour per 5lb bag 
> Domino sugar per 4lb bag
> Folgers Coffee per pound (If they only sell in 12 oz make note)
> Regular Gas - 87 octane price per gallon or liter (OK to average between 2-3 stations in your AO)
> On road diesel per gallon or liter - NOT Agriculture diesel (OK to average between 2-3 stations in your AO)
> Propane price per gallon or liter
> Plain Jiff Peanut butter 16 ounces
> Hamburger/ Ground beef 80/20 price per pound or kilo
> Chicken breast per pound or kilo 
> Scott Toilet Paper six pack
> Wonder bread price per loaf - typically 1 pound
> Red Potatoes price per pound or kilo
> Macintosh apples price per pound or kilo
> Whole milk price per quart or liter
> Original Cheerio brand cereal - 1 standard box

PS: Remember, regular prices not sale or coupon prices. 


      
      
      
      
   

[Well-Prepared Witch]

I've set up a calendar reminder and will try and get out this week to comparison shop.  I typically do my grocery shopping on Saturdays, though, so I may not be able to get the first shop in until next Saturday.  We'll see how the week goes!

[brat]

Well I probably won't be able to participate "every" week as we only go to the store about every three weeks or so, plus it's 22.3 miles one way to the market. But this list came at a good time today, cause I just got back. Here ya go.....

Tylenol (acetaminophen), 250 tabs of 500mg............$16.99
Gold Metal Flour per 5lb bag................................$2.39
Domino sugar per 4lb bag..................$2.99
Folgers Coffee .................$4.39 for 11.3 oz.
Regular Gas - 87 octane price per gallon ...................... $3.09
On road diesel per gallon .........................$3.79
Propane price per gallon ...................$2.99
Plain Jiff Peanut butter 16 ounces .................$2.93
Ground beef 80/20 price per pound ............... $3.99
Chicken breast per pound .................. $2.99
Scott Toilet Paper six pack ................... $11.19
Wonder bread price per loaf ................. $2.29
Red Potatoes price per pound ............ $0.99
Macintosh apples price per pound ................$1.99
Whole milk price per quart ............... $2.29
Original Cheerio brand cereal .......................$3.69 for 14 oz. box

[JohnyMac]

Great job brat! You are the first one in 

No worried Wellie, the first reporting is always a learning experience. 

As of this writing the three of us are the only folks playing. I hope some other folks come on board. 

[special-k]

It'll be another week or two before I hit the grocery store.  I'll try to have this list in my pocket then.

[JohnyMac]

  SK!

[crudos]

I'll be hitting the store in the next couple of days.

[JohnyMac]

Cool Crudos!

Here is my competitive shop:
> Tylenol (acetaminophen), 250 tabs of 500mg. ...........$9.99 I could only find 100 packs
> Gold Metal Flour per 5lb bag....................................$2.99 
> Domino sugar per 4lb bag........................................2.79
> Folgers Coffee per pound ........................................3.79 11.5 oz.
> Regular Gas - 87 octane price per gallon or liter .........3.46 Gal
> On road diesel per gallon or liter...............................4.59 Gal
> Propane price per gallon or liter................................4.49 Gal
> Plain Jiff Peanut butter 16 ounces.............................2.99 15.5 oz
> Hamburger/ Ground beef 80/20 price per pound ........3.49 Lb
> Chicken breast per pound or kilo...............................3.19 Lb 
> Scott Toilet Paper six pack.......................................5.59 Six Pack
> Wonder bread price per loaf - typically 1 pound..........2.79 Loaf or 1 Lb
> Red Potatoes price per pound or kilo.........................  .99 Lb
> Macintosh apples price per pound or kilo....................1.69 Lb
> Whole milk price per quart or liter.............................1.69 Qt
> Original Cheerio brand cereal - 1 standard box...........2.99 8.9 oz box

As a side note...brat was your toilet paper a 10 pack price or a six pack price? 

Once I get Wellies and who ever is participating I will post the spreadsheet 

[Well-Prepared Witch]

Do we want to include our location in this?  Even if it's just region, like I'd say "SW PA".  It might help to give us a better idea of how prices compare across the country.

[JohnyMac]

absolutely! I am actually recording this info onto a spreadsheet separated by person reporting. I like your region idea but will call you mid Atlantic. I will mine  New England. Crudos Mid-west, brat?

Thx for the idea. 
 

[Well-Prepared Witch]

Sounds good!

[brat]

Six pack, but the big, double rolls.

[crudos]

Tylenol (acetaminophen), 100 tabs of 500mg............$12.49 (no 250 ct. at my store)
Gold Metal Flour per 5lb bag................................$3.55
Domino sugar per alb bag..................$3.39 (brand was Crystal Sugar, no Domino brand in my store)
Folgers Coffee .................$10.29 for 2 lb.
Regular Gas - 87 octane price per gallon ...................... $3.58
On road diesel per gallon .........................$4.08
Propane price per gallon ...................$3.59
Plain Jiff Peanut butter 16 ounces .................$3.19
Ground beef 80/20 price per pound ............... $4.49
Chicken breast per pound .................. $1.49
Scott Toilet Paper six pack ................... $8.55 (6 Mega Rolls)
Wonder bread price per loaf ................. $1.09 (no Wonder brand, used store brand)
Red Potatoes price per pound ............ $0.59
Macintosh apples price per pound ................$1.49
Whole milk price per quart ............... $4.19
Original Cheerio brand cereal .......................$3.15 for 14 oz. box

[JohnyMac]

Thanks Crudos, I will add this to the spreadsheet.

[Well-Prepared Witch]

> Tylenol (acetaminophen), 250 tabs of 500mg. - I could only find 225 tablets of Extra Strength at 500 mg, so that was $15.49
> Gold Metal Flour per 5lb bag  $2.99
> Domino sugar per 4lb bag  $2.69
> Folgers Coffee per pound (If they only sell in 12 oz make note)  I couldn't find a 1 lb container, but the 2 lb container worked out to $4.24/lb. BTW, the different sizes of packaging varied wildly on the per lb cost.
> Regular Gas - $3.49/gal
> On road diesel per gallon $4.53/gal
> Propane price per gallon or liter - where do you get this info?  I've never needed to get propane.
> Plain Jiff Peanut butter 16 ounces $2.99
> Hamburger/ Ground beef 80/20 price per pound or kilo $4.29/lb
> Chicken breast per pound or kilo  $4.99/lb
> Scott Toilet Paper six pack $5.49
> Wonder bread price per loaf - $2.09
> Red Potatoes price per pound or kilo $1.49/lb
> Macintosh apples price per pound or kilo $1.33/lb
> Whole milk price per quart or liter $1.11/qt
> Original Cheerio brand cereal - $3.69