When do you bug out

[JohnyMac]

My brother and I were up at our BOL about 18 months ago. We had just met with some of neighbors on the mountain to chat about the present and future prospects for the USA. We chatted about prepping and what folks thought they should put away. We shot a few rounds of ammo and had a few laughs over a couple of beers.

One of the neigbors asked us, "We live here. It will take you JohnyMac, 5 hours to get here and 3 hours for your brother. Why don't you move up here for good?"

Well after they left I turned to my brother and said, "That guy was right. How will we know when to leave our primary residents to get here in a timely unmolested fashion?" He agreed so we planned to come out with a Bug Out Time Line to help us make that decision of when to bug out.

Well the next day, I dragged out old JohnyMac's flip chart pad. Hung it from the two nails on the  wall that it had hung from on many a brain storming session. Grabbed a cup off Sumatra coffee and this was the result. Please note that this was 18 or so months ago and some of the threats may have changed. Feel free to delete North Korea and insert Iran or Israel. Or? Or?

I encourage all of you to formalize your own armageden cout down time line. Your will be different then ours however it will help you and your family to make decissions when the SHTF; when heads may not be so level.

WHAT LEVEL DO YOU THINK WE ARE AT NOW? 

 Level I
   Status Quo

Continue to monitor world events. Stock pile food, medicine, ammo, firearms, etc. Talk to your neighbors asking them if they are prepared. Pay off bills. Sell any large holdings. Buy precious metals if possible.

Level II
           Catastrophic Event equivalent to 911 on US soil or around the world, e.g. War / North
              Korea attacks South Korea, China invades Taiwan, earth quake, hurricane, etc.
   Peaceful protests in US
   Riots overseas in the EU
   Stock market ?tanking? in US and around the world 
   Some banks fail
   Inflation over 3% a year
   Small GDP growth
   High single digit unemployment rate

Begin to organize neighborhood to meet potential food, water, general supply shortages and discuss plans for looters. Stock your primary resesidents and ?bug out? location- Prepare to ?bug out.?

Level III
   Riots in the US as well as around the world
   Some of the US Bill of rights suspended (Free speech, Gun?s, Habeas Corpus, etc)
   Partial Martial law implemented; mostly in riotous city?s / locations around the US
   Stock market ?crashes? in US and around the world 
   Banks do not open, have limited operating hours or have restrictions put on them by the
             federal government, e.g. how much you can take from your account
   Communication via normal sources still open, e.g. internet, land line, some cellular, etc.
   Double digit inflation above 14%
   Official, unemployment rate double digit or unofficial unemployment / under employment
             of 25% or higher
   One quarter of negative GDP growth.

Decide whether to stay and support the neighborhood or head for your ?bug out? location in the hills. If you don?t retreat continue to stock food, supplies, ammo, firearms, etc. for the neighborhood / ?bug out? location while supplies last.

Level IV
   Complete martial law across US
   Across the US all 27 amendments of the Bill of Rights suspended
   Local and national elections suspended
   Wide spread looting is happening
   Communication sporadic and not private
   Out of control inflation above 20%
   Official, unemployment 25% or higher
   Two quarters of negative GDP growth.
   Leave for your ?bug out? location if possible.

Level V
   Without Rule Of Law

No chance to relocate to your ?bug out? location. No communication is possible.
 

[gapatriot]

Looks like we are at level 2 right now. great write up

[sledge]

JM that's a really good evaluation of the levels.  Nice work!

[JohnyMac]

Thanks gents.

[NOLA556]

nice JM. I don't have a written list like you've made but what you've written is pretty much in line with my thoughts.

[JohnyMac]

Ahhhhh, Sledge and NOLA you don't get off that easy. What level do you think we are at now?

Thanks Wild for giving your opinion. Once I get 10 folks to vote I will vote where I think we are. 

[sledge]

Ahhhhh, Sledge and NOLA you don't get off that easy. What level do you think we are at now?

Thanks Wild for giving your opinion. Once I get 10 folks to vote I will vote where I think we are. 

Definitely in level 2 and part of level 3.

[NOLA556]

level 2 for sure. I can't really agree with you there sledge when you say "part of level 3".

I think if you really stepped back and take a good look around, shit is nowhere near that bad yet. I think we sometimes allow our anticipations of these things get the best of us and make us feel as if things are worse than they actually are. just my .02

[JohnyMac]

OK we have three votes. Only Seven more to go. 

[sledge]

level 2 for sure. I can't really agree with you there sledge when you say "part of level 3".

I think if you really stepped back and take a good look around, shit is nowhere near that bad yet. I think we sometimes allow our anticipations of these things get the best of us and make us feel as if things are worse than they actually are. just my .02

These are why I included part of number 3. 
 
Some of the US Bill of rights suspended (Free speech, Gun?s, Habeas Corpus, etc) Anyone can be classified a terrorist.
 Double digit inflation above 14%   This is very close.  Thanksgiving dinner was 12% higher this year.
Official, unemployment rate double digit or unofficial unemployment / under employment
             of 25% or higher  Unofficial unemployment plus under employment is very close to this.

[NOLA556]

level 2 for sure. I can't really agree with you there sledge when you say "part of level 3".

I think if you really stepped back and take a good look around, shit is nowhere near that bad yet. I think we sometimes allow our anticipations of these things get the best of us and make us feel as if things are worse than they actually are. just my .02

These are why I included part of number 3. 
 
Some of the US Bill of rights suspended (Free speech, Gun?s, Habeas Corpus, etc) Anyone can be classified a terrorist.
 Double digit inflation above 14%   This is very close.  Thanksgiving dinner was 12% higher this year.
Official, unemployment rate double digit or unofficial unemployment / under employment
             of 25% or higher  Unofficial unemployment plus under employment is very close to this.

I guess I can agree on the inflation and unemployment, but the suspension of certain parts of the bill of rights... well I guess we'll just have to see where this NDAA thing takes us. but in a sense you're right. as much as I  [img]http://www.arrse.co.uk/at at the OWS people, there's no doubt that in certain instances, freedom of speech and freedom of press is being grossly violated. however, it's not officially suspended, so I guess it kind of falls into a gray area in regards to JM's list.

[NOLA556]

JM, do you want me to add a poll to the thread? (I'm not sure if everyone can do it... it may be a super-special-mod power, lol) let me know.

[JohnyMac]

NOLA, man that would be a great idea!!!

I don't know how so if you would do it that would be great.

[JohnyMac]

First vote. I am very curious as to where YOU think we are.

Second, what are you going to do if we hit level III? IV?

Last, what would you add/delete? What other triggers give you concern (s)?

[sledge]

First vote. I am very curious as to where YOU think we are.

Second, what are you going to do if we hit level III? IV?

Last, what would you add/delete? What other triggers give you concern (s)?

I think for many level 3 will be the last chance to leave.  Level 4 includes martial law across the U.S.   In some area's it may be possible to move around but probably all of the major cities will be blocked in.  It may still be possible to leave by sneaking around checkpoints but it is going to be extremely risky.  If caught it's probably off to the FEMA fun camp for you.

For me, seeing a strange green glow coming from the south (Miami), or the north (Orlando), or the West (Tampa), means to immediately check the wind direction and proceed to vacate the vicinity in any direction the wind isn't blowing in.    Realize that one nuke explosion may not be the only one coming to that area.  Many target cities would require more than one.

Just to throw this out there.  If you live in an area where there are U.S. missile silos you can expect to see an explosion about every 20 minutes to keep the dust cloud in the air.  Can't launch through a dust cloud.  The friction destroys the weapon.  Also unless things have changed, just because you live 50 miles away from a potential target.  Don't feel too secure.  Russian ICBM's aren't as accurate as they could be.

This would be the Tsar, their largest
 

Tsar bomba

 

[NOLA556]

in response to sledge and allshall: just to throw another log on the fire... I think single guys may be able to hold out a bit longer than married guys with kids. (of course, it's still not a good idea, but a lone man, or a small group of mentally prepared men will be far more capable of putting on the Chuck Norris mask and pulling some SEAL style escape and evasion than a poor schmuck like me dragging around a wife and toddler)

[TreadOnMeNot]

I hit stage1 by mistake, I meant to hit level 2. We are definitely in Level 2 right now.

Good Work !

[NOLA556]

I hit stage1 by mistake, I meant to hit level 2. We are definitely in Level 2 right now.

Good Work !

I thought I could edit the poll results but I guess not. you're true vote will be noted.

[Kobalt]

I think you should bug out in a wrol situation.

[rah45]

I hit stage1 by mistake, I meant to hit level 2. We are definitely in Level 2 right now.

Good Work !

I thought I could edit the poll results but I guess not. you're true vote will be noted.

I enabled the poll to allow vote-switching. If you change your mind, you can reassign your 1 vote.

[Reaver]

I'll admit, I am the only one that has voted for IV

but I have a reason. I am still under contract, and until the Government breaks there end of the deal. I cannot.
I hope you fellas under stand.


Other than that. I do not like this conversation. It's too real and scary. ( insert MSS )

[Buck Naked]

I voted for 1.   I will add that I think we are close to level 2. I don't consider peaceful protest level 2 worthy. That being said this is an excellent topic!!!

[special-k]

My vote would be 2.5.   (I didn't cast a vote)

We have definitely been in stage 2 for some time now and are starting to experience some elements of stage 3.

[Colombo]

I checked 5 and might not even then, if needed I wouldn't think twice about repositioning while dealing with a problem but this is my area.

Elvis may leave the building but that might just mean he's lurking in the woods waiting for some payback.

[NOLA556]

I checked 5 and might not even then, if needed I wouldn't think twice about repositioning while dealing with a problem but this is my area.

Elvis may leave the building but that might just mean he's lurking in the woods waiting for some payback.

you misunderstood the poll. the question wasn't when do you bug out (even though I can see how it can be misleading given the name of the thread). the poll was asking "what stage do believe we are currently in"

I'll go back and reword it.