What the next Five Years Looks Like - "The Fourth Turning Is Here" Neil Howe

[JohnyMac]

The coauthor of "The Fourth Turning" Neil Howe was a guest on Glenn Beck's radio program this morning. He has a new book out titled "The Fourth Turning Is Here" and was hawking his book.

Here are the key items that came out of the interview for the remainder of the Winter of the fourth turning.

1) Winter of the fourth turning began in the 2008-2010 timeframe. Spring of the fourth turning will begin in the early 2030's.
    Currently, we are at the climax of winter. Think the end of January, beginning of February of a actual winter.

2) During the climax of winter in the past, there has always been a major global event, like a war or revolution that happens.
    Plan for a war or major domestic civil strife. Civil strife in the USA will affect the rest of the world not unlike the American
    Revolution and Civil War, which affected the globe, e.g., industrialization, moving from a monarchical form of rule to a
    democracy or republic form of rule, etc.
 
3) Generation 'X' will guide us all globally, through this period till spring begins - Good & Bad.

4) Generation 'Y' or millennials, will look to the Boomer generation for advice and guidance on what to do during the spring
     post the climax of winter to return to a semblance of spring post WW II. They will be looked at as the heroes not unlike the
     boomers post WW II, that leads the country to prominence. 

5) Winter leading up to Spring will be a true struggle. We must go through it to evolve. Not unlike having a serious illness, you
    deal with and come through the experience to a better life. Howe asked, "Would we as a nation be better if we did not have
    our civil war in 1860-'66?" His answer was, "No. We needed it to cleanse the country and move on to its eventual destiny".

6) Last, he shared that he believes that due to the makeup of the American people, we will again attain dominance as a
    world leader not unlike post WW II.

Hopefully, I did a fair job of summarizing the 45-minute interview that Howe had with Beck. If you listened also, please add to what I have written.

Thoughts? Enhancements?

 

[Sir John Honeybucket]

"...We needed it to cleanse the country and move on to its eventual destiny".

Ugh!  This sounds like emotional nonsense. YMMV


- Sir John Honeybucket

[Felix]

I ordered the book and am only a few chapters into it - and yes, it feels like the author fleshes out the prose with some emotional coloring.    Not particularly impressed.
However. the thesis of cycles, their periodicity and the patterns that have commonality in each cycle does strike me as having validity.
Taking these guys with grains of salt.   Another prognosticator who happens to be big into demographics, is a New Mexico resident, Peter Zeihan also goes into the mix.    Cross those with an increasingly frustrated and fatalistic Victor Davis Hanson and there's the makings of one's own, personal Nostradamus Kit.

[Sir John Honeybucket]

Thank you for your thoughts.

Peter Zeihan builds on a very solid geopolitical foundation of land, water transport, roads, rails and oceangoing capabilities and how those make or break a nation or a continent.  Added to this he injects the absolute necessity of maintaining population to grow an economy in the global market place.  His theses that the United States Navy was ( is ?) central to global trade due tit its post WW II role in maintaining safe sea lanes for all nations, regardless of affiliation is a very interesting point. His thoughts on communist Chinas' population DECREASE and how their aging population is very, very compelling for future trends. ( "They have more people in their 50's, than in their 40's,  than in their 30's, than in their 20's.. When you need 25 year olds, the time to make them is 25 years ago and China missed that boat - it has already sailed")  very interesting.

Victor Davis Hanson is an interesting author, especially with his background as a classicist; trained in ancient Greek and Latin.  History is interesting through his eyes/books.  I'm currently reading his though on Thwe West as influenced by ancient Greek warfare as influenced by their agricultural practices and mindset.


- Sir John Honeybucket

[grizz]

The world is cyclical in everything from weather, tides, life and death of everything and yes, governments and civilizations. The cycles always come back around, maybe not exactly but very very close