Threat Evaluation

[gadget99]

Hi All,

Thought I might contribute a bit associated with threat evaluation.

Many preppers tend to prepare for a single threat. Some tend to prepare for a broad spectrum of threats.

Something I have been thinking about recently is how does anyone rate the broad spectrum of potential threats.

As opposed to outlining a list of potential threats and the odds associated with each, I decided to pose some queries for thought.

We all know we prepare. Yet the "for what" is fluid.

I suggest that the historically repeatable and understood as to when as apposed to if.

As a simplistic example. History teaches us that the Avian Flu is not an example of an example of when. This will happen as it has happened before.

Now if we allow ourselves to get wrapped around the "if's" we may miss the when's.

I really do hope this simple post makes sense.

Cheers all.

[JoJo]

A few of the WHENs I'm preparing for are another Carrington Event and a nuclear show down with Russia.

The Carrington Event happened in the 1800's and it is not if but when and how strong it will be.

The nuclear show down with Russia (USSR) happened in 1962 and I think we just snuck by it happening again with Trump getting elected. If not Russia then another hate filled country.

Hurricanes; always prepared for hurricanes and snow storms like 1962 on the east coast.

[Kbop]

@Gadget99  if i read correctly;

i like your method better than prepping for a single issue.

i look at it based on how widespread a threat might be.   It helps in threat assessment.  If a tornado hits Oklahoma 1500 miles from me, its a tragedy for the people in that town but not a direct threat to me or my family.  On the other hand, a traffic accident has little effect on my own neighborhood but a huge effect on me.  So - if it affects me i calculate how far out the nearest support is.  This should equate to a time window i'm on my own and how much support i can expect.  In general the threat doesn't matter if you cover - what ever variant of the 3/4/5 B's is - for that length of time.  The time between the 'problem' and the time until support can arrive.  interesting thought on this is that the amount of support is diluted by the area affected.
if my house catches fire they'll send Fire, EMS, PD, Traffic control, Red Cross... but if the entire country has been devastated I wouldn't expect a bottle of water from FEMA.

if you get the BBBBBB's in place you can move onto 'threat specific' items.  i would suggest working from the closest and most likely threat and working out.

[gadget99]

Thank you for the contribution Kbop and JoJo.

We are on the same sheet of music.

While I wish I had a crystal ball.

We are prepping to meet a spectrum of issues.

High on the list are the "when's" and then the "if's"

The thing that is evident to me, is that there will be something that makes our prepping worth it's weight in gold.

Keep safe all and remember that communities survive longer than individuals.

[Well-Prepared Witch]

Yeah, here's what happens when you only prep for one "out there" situation.  Instead, look at your overall situation.  Security, sustainability, food, and shelter are all parts of a good prepping plan.

http://fox8.com/2016/11/23/doomsday-preppers-in-cleveland-robbed-of-guns-body-armor-and-machetes/