ERIN Digital & Phone net Tuesday November 26, 2024; Go HERE for Current SOI
RUSSIA-NATO SITREPTo recap the Ukraine-Russia stand-off so far, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. In response, Ukraine built a dam on the North Crimean Canal, cutting off roughly 90 percent of Crimea’s fresh water. The move caused water shortages in Crimea, and reservoirs are running low. Officials last month reported the Simferopol Reservoir at seven percent capacity. Russia has built up military forces on three sides of the Ukrainian border as a message, while demanding water be restored to Crimea. The peninsula is a popular vacation destination, and water shortages are hurting the tourist industry there, as well as negatively impacting crop yields. In a recent statement, Crimean deputy prime minister Georgy Muradov predicted that the Crimean water shortage would be resolved soon. “I think that a solution to the water supplies problem will be found by summer. It will make vacationing in Crimea trouble-free. But more time will be needed to resolve the problem once and for all,” Muradov explained. That particular statement was in regard to new wells being dug to alleviate fresh water shortages. But it also may have been intended to signal that Russian military action would achieve its objectives sometime this year. Digging wells is a tentative solution and will ultimately not be enough. Water from the North Crimean Canal will likely be restored one way or another. Dustin and I agree that this Russian military build up initially looked like an expensive message, but, as Dustin points out below, the deployment of strategic equipment likely signals future Russian military action. The current strategic situation on the Ukrainian border, according to Russian military doctrine, is between the Escalation and Start of Conflict phase of Conflict Development. This phase of conflict is marked by the formation of coalitions, exertion of political and diplomatic pressure, intensified contradictions, and information warfare waged in the press and on social media. The transition to imminent military action is occurring in real-time as Russian forces continue to move within striking distance of the borders of Ukraine along three separate borders — Belarus, Transnistria, & Russia itself. The deployment of forces for full-spectrum operations is nearly complete, except for dedicated assets to gain air-superiority and tactical support, including close air support and surface to air missile platforms in sufficient numbers to be offensively utilized.Meanwhile, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) observers in eastern Ukraine accused Russian forces of violating the Minsk ceasefire agreement nine separate times on Monday, resulting in the death of one Ukrainian soldier. The attacks included several barrages of 82mm mortars, heavy machine-guns, and small arms fire. OSCE observers reported 367 ceasefire violations in Donetsk and 224 violations in Luhansk between 09-11 April. This marks a substantial increase in fighting in the separatist region over the past 48 hours. The OSCE observers also report their movements being restricted and their observation platforms being actively jammed by Russian forces.
CHINA SITREPA team from the Philippines’ ABS-CBN media outlet reported that they were chased by two People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels late last week. The Filipino civilian vessel was traveling across shoals in the West Philippine Sea near Palawan where many Filipino fishermen have relocated after a large Chinese fishing fleet strong-armed them out of the Whitsun Reef in late March. A Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel initially intercepted the Filipino watercraft and ordered them to identify themselves, despite being well within the Philippines’ 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).The CCG vessel broke its pursuit after approximately an hour, but two PLAN Houbei Type 22 missile fast attack craft resumed the chase only 90 miles from the Filipino mainland. It is important to note that an EEZ is not the same as territorial waters, which is 12 nautical miles from the low-water mark of a nation’s shoreline. The Philippines cannot prohibit or prevent any traffic within its EEZ, but under the Law of the Sea of 1982, it does maintain control of all resources within the zone, such as fish and oil. China’s violation of this can be interpreted as an aggressive act and not in line with established international agreements.The first Houbei Class craft were commissioned in 2005 and are typically allocated to coastal defense missions near the Chinese mainland and proximate islands. These fast attack craft are part of a naval swarm strategy to counter traditionally “blue water” fleets such as the United States Navy. The general strategy revolves around deploying large waves of small vessels to swiftly overwhelm larger vessels, such as destroyers or aircraft carriers, and render their missile systems and deck guns useless. These fast attack craft engage with crew served weapons, missiles, and torpedoes to sink or disable larger vessels for additional waves of sea or air attacks. Nations such as China, North Korea, and Iran will typically pair fast attack craft with cost-effective mines and/or diesel submarines (they have a much smaller acoustic profile and radar signature than nuclear submarines and are very hard to detect when lying in wait, running solely on electric battery power) to further disable or slow down larger vessels.The Philippines Defense Department stated it could call for support for the United States, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed America’s commitment to the 1951 U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty. But, no specific action has been taken yet and no plans have been proposed publicly to roll back these latest Chinese incursions.The deployment of Houbei Class craft so close to the Filipino mainland indicates the PLAN is likely experimenting how to expand its fast attack craft into a more expeditionary role. The longer China continues to operate and bolster their capabilities in the area, the harder it will be to dislodge them or prevent military action against mainland Philippines.
