From peak oil to excess oil

[APX808]

What a crazy world we live in, a few years ago everyone was saying the oil was over and that we were absolutely fucked, with oil in 115 dollars, now we have 45 dollars oil and no more place to store it, so it was decided to start storing oil in tanker ships that can store 3 million barrels each.



It seems there was more oil available that they were saying

[DMCakhunter]

Yes, lies, lies and more lies.

[Nemo]

And if you want an easy website to keep track of oil prices go here:  http://www.oil-price.net/

Keeps up with Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate.  The 2 standard benchmark oils.

Nemo

[JohnyMac]

What ever "they"say the exact opposite is reality.

> Eggs
> Salt
> Coffee
> Chocolate
> wine
> Crude oil
> Fracking
> Global warming
> beef
> Cow flagellants
> M855 5.56x45
> Should I go on? 

[JoJo]

In the Delaware Bay right now there are six tankers just anchored there.

[Erick]

Over production will always happen. at osme point.
Fact is half or more thna half of all oil inn the ground has been use dup.
its a finte reseource.
All the new "big" finds where a fraction of the old fields.
All the big fields have been found because the bigger  afield the easier it is to find.

resource crash (oil water etc) over rpolulation are the reasons to prep.

[DMCakhunter]

There is more oil and gas than most people will admit. And the planet is constantly making more.

[Erick]

- There will always be gasoline in our lifetime for those who can afford it. But prices may be a lot higher

-The planet is not making "more" at any appreciable rate.

- We caught a breather last couple years, but actually if you look at production it has plateaued for some years.
if it wasnt for the US picking up shale we would have already passed peak and been in decline.

- The fact that we have been tapping shale, a  destructive method expensive in water and fuel, shows how far down the path we are.

- We are not "Finding new deposits all the time". ...whats hitting the news are "deposits" that in the 50's would have been dismissed as uneconomical small patches.
The big fields ( Prudhoe bay, Ghawar Oil field, Baku, North slope etc have ALL been found. it is MUCH easier to find a big field than a small one.

NO new big fields have been discovered anywhere on the planet since prudhoe bay.\

The only possible exception is a large field in the Brasil coast but its at a depth that will make it uneconomical unless we have 300/bbl of oil. That number equates to $12-13 dollars a gallon of gas in today's dollars.

- Also we must remember the ripple effect skyrocketing oil prices will have when they come . ......oil is EVERYTHING, our food, clothes etc. at $200 a barrell some countries will completely check out of feeding their population.
Their workers will simply not create enough value under those conditions to create enough food to feed them, when the cheap energy times are over a lot of economic activities that now still put food on the tbale the world over will be uneconomical and consume more resources than they produce (and so will stop).

You think the illegal invasion is bad now, just wait..

- Oil is a finite resources that everyone uses and wants and that we need not just for convince but to even just feed ourselves (distribution, pesticides, running the tractors etc). Peak Oil means super expensive food.

- I am surpised so many preppers who are often concerned about much more esoteric threats (solar flare etc) but something so certain as Peak Oil which WILL threaten the livelihood (and therefore the very life!) of your children is often dismissed so cavalierly.

[Kbop]

just to add to what Erick said - nice post BTW.

** Opinion Warning **

the current bump in crude prices has three elements

1) economic down turn - this has slowed most industry down - slowing down the need for liquid fuels.

2) fracking has created a short term bump in available crude supplies in the USofA. 

3) politics - there is a pissing contest between Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States of America.  This has lowered crude futures to the financial detriment of Russia and the benefit of the North America the EU and Asia.

all of these effects are short term and self limiting.  I wouldn't recommend relying on fuel prices to remain low for long.  How long IDK.

[Kbop]

- I am surpised so many preppers who are often concerned about much more esoteric threats (solar flare etc) but something so certain as Peak Oil which WILL threaten the livelihood of your children is often dismissed so cavalierly.

if population growth continues and arable land dwindles; have you considered a shortage of Phosphorous?   Same basic problems as oil for availability (limited supply).  - would require a huge (and expensive) change in current agricultural operations to adapt to.  It would hit the third world like a hammer.