Even a Blind Squirrel is Lucky Once In Awhile or A broken clock is correct twice a day.
I haven't voiced my 2ยข on our economy for awhile so here are some thoughts from the redoubt on this snowy day.
Year over year (Rolling 365 days) we have seen a 13% correction (16,020 vs 18,351). If you remember my financial adviser predicted a 15% correction and I predicted a 20% correction (~14,600 vs 18,351). Well we are on our way to my prediction. Will it go farther?
Some financial news to contemplate:
> The new floor for oil is $20- a barrel not $30- like some economists predicted
> We (USA Manufacturers) have excess inventory on their shelves
> China Stock Market on free fall.
> China GDP continues to slide which probably means further devaluation of their Yuan. Which means there will be a new layer of dust on our already
stocked shelves of inventory.
> Get ready for a whole bunch of zero % interest rate offering's on hard goods and softgoods being sold at cost.
> With what I wrote above - Is deflation to far down the road?
> Wallyworld will be closing 154 stores in the US and another 115 through-out the world. With an average 100 employees per store that is ~26,900
potential lay-offs around the world.
> Add to Wallyworlds closing we have:
- Macy's closing ~40 stores,
- KMart (Sears holdings) closing all stores,
- Sears closing ~51 stores (KMart not in this 51 store list),
- Boscovs closing 10 stores,
- J.C. Penny closing 22 stores,
- I could go on and on...
> The Fed having no more silver bullets to fend off a recession (QEing comes to mind)
So what do you folks think will happen in the first half of the year then follow up by year end. If you can, leave out the elections coming up because I feel they will have no affect on our economy this year, maybe next year but not this one.
I will write my prediction post what everybody else has to write.
UP's friends outside of the USA, what is happening in your country and what do you think 2016 will bring to your countries economies.
