Many of the markets are seeing unusual gains during the past month of November while crude prices are dropping. I spent some time looking into it this morning. I follow six economist/analysts which I have mentioned before. To make things easy they will be referred to 6EA's in this post.
High visibility markets I follow at the close of this week.
Gold closed yesterday at $2,072 an ounce.
Silver at $25.61 an ounce
DJIA, 36,246 pointsTwo of the 6EA's predict that there will be a panic move the week of December 18th. The panic move will be spurred with a liquidity problem with either UBS or Barclay's in the EU. They also feel that the Ukraine/Russian conflict is coming to an end with Ukraine receiving the short end of the stick. There was a lot of money thrown into that bottomless pit so yet again, there is way too much money in circulation. More money = inflation. Inflation = higher interest rates.
The current 3% Bidenomics inflation rate will start to creep up in January and be at full gallop by the end of Q1, 2024 if the Fed does not act to raise rates now. Also looking at the DJIA, there is a narrative making the rounds that there will be no more Fed rate hikes. It is a bogus rumor. At the minimum, the rate of 5.33% will remain through Q1, 2024. All the 6EA's feel there is still to much USD out in circulation. If this does not change by the end of Q1, 2024, the Fed will raise the rates yet again.
I think the rates need to be raised now and by 50 bpts, otherwise inflation will fall upon us like a collapsing building in March. Perfect timing for the 2024 elections.
Several of the 6EA's are pointing to the rising DJIA and PM's to investors in the EU realizing banking challenges along with the Ukraine drama is coming to an end. They are moving money out of the Euro & BP into the DJIA, and PM's.
Brent closed yesterday at $80- a barrel. This is because the US is working behind the scenes to drive the price down to around $60- a barrel. This is being done not so consumers can have a lower price at the pump but so .gov can start replenishing our oil reserves. In part .gov can do this because of the bumper corn crop this past season which in turn is driving down petrol at the pump. Not diesel mind you, petrol.
OPEC has countered this drop in price by announcing the other day they were going to reduce pumping by 2.2m barrels a day for Q1, 2024. Knowing the brilliant men & women within the D.C. loop, they will screw up our play.
It will be interesting to see if something big happens in the EU the week of December 18th, that creates a panic of sorts. What will the panic be? Money flooding out of the EU into DJIA and PM's or people taking profits and stuffing them under their mattresses in anticipation of a rocky 2024.
Stay tuned,
