Is War Coming To Eastern Europe

[JohnyMac]

Sam Culper's Forward Observer had an OUTSTANDING overview of what may happen sooner than later in Eastern Europe. Here is a short excerpt,

 

As news reports continue to pour in regarding the Russian military buildup on the Ukrainian border, NATO leaders are preparing for another military incursion. At the strategic level, each NATO player is explaining the case for a coming conflict. Russian propaganda efforts, meanwhile, are intensifying as decades-old submarine accidents are blamed on NATO activity, online bot-net activity is increasing dramatically, and ?humanitarian crises? are blamed on Ukraine and the West. The Russian government is blaming the Ukrainians for increasing hostilities along the front by propagating months old video of artillery fire as a recent event. This rapid expansion of information operations and special operations is similar to 2014?s invasion of Ukraine. Western observers appear to be politicizing the potential war in Europe, or are unwitting participants in the larger psychological operations campaign designed to confuse, delay, or deter military and diplomatic support for Ukraine.

In a head-to-head match-up, the Russians have about 300,000 troops staged across their southern and western fronts. Limited but powerful troop concentrations in Moldova, Kaliningrad, and Belarus give the Russian military unique options which can be difficult to observe or predict. NATO members have around 150,000 troops from nearly a dozen nations scattered across their eastern flank. NATO?s Enhanced Forward Presence model keeps multinational formations ready to respond to crises and train smaller member states in combined-joint doctrine. The U.S. has approximately 5,000 troops in the Baltics and Poland, meaning military action in the region would quickly involve U.S. forces. A smaller but significant European military training presence exists in Ukraine and is not an official NATO mission.

In Poland, limited border clashes were reported over the weekend. Hundreds of migrants returned to Iraq, while Belarusian authorities relocated a few hundred to logistics facilities. Poland reported only 255 attempted border crossings, a substantial reduction compared to last week. Lieutenant Anna Michalska told AFP that some of the migrants ?threw rocks and someone also hurled tear gas at Polish officials,? while ?Belarusian personnel were using lasers to blind them [Polish soldiers].? The arrival of multinational forces appears to have temporarily reduced tensions along the border. Belarusian President Lukashenko reportedly seeks an end to clashes and authorized currency exchanges, food services, and other basic amenities in the migrant camps. Poland threatened to close its Kuznica border crossing on 21 November if Belarus continued its surge of migrants.

Approximately 100 British engineer troops arrived on the Polish border to advise and assist in constructing hasty defenses. The UK said they have Special Air Service squadrons on standby to respond in the region, indicating a two-pronged approach toward Ukraine and Poland. Advanced teams of special operations forces conducted airborne and low-visibility insertion exercises across the Baltics in conjunction with diplomatic statements on military readiness. Belarusian and Russian paratroopers conducted a similar exercise within 25km of the Latvian border, covering potential infiltration activities.

Estonia is sending 100 of its national guard troops to assist with border wall construction in Poland. At home, the Estonian national guard continued placing fencing along the border with Russia and suspended its air service with Russia for a week. While these maneuvers are ultimately useless against an invading Russian military, they send a signal of unity to the Kremlin. A major subversion campaign remains underway in Europe to discredit the legitimacy and relevance of NATO. While Russia may not seek to retake the Baltics and Ukraine, they maintain an interest in vassal states for financial exploitation.

The most dangerous course of action is an invasion of Poland or Ukraine. Russia maintains a numerical and capability advantage over Ukraine. By the time Ukrainian forces mobilize, Russia will likely seize and hold up to the Dnieper River. Simultaneous military action against Poland could immediately involve US & UK troops already in the region. Military provocation against Poland would incite Common Defense (Article 5) provision of the NATO Charter. Energy supplies to Europe would cease almost immediately. Global supply chains would face catastrophic disruption as flagged commercial vessels become likely maritime targets. The EU expects massive cyber disruptions to governmental and private communications and financial systems.

The most likely course of action remains a stand-off between a Neo-Soviet Union State and the rest of Europe. The Russians have a limited window of opportunity to force NATO action or goad Ukraine into a fight. Ukrainian forces remain emplaced along contested borders, and fighting has increased over the past two weeks. The border forces are now carrying live ammunition in anticipation of migrant surges or Russian infiltration efforts. The situation remains eerily similar to the migrant waves in 2014 and 2015, prompting extra scrutiny from Ukraine and its growing bench of Western allies. I maintain that this is a test of Western resolve and an attempt to induce diplomatic fatigue so the Union State formalization will receive minimal pushback from the EU or NATO. ? D.M.

I apologize for the cut & pasting however, I have no way to post the whole article here complete with maps and statistical analysis.

As a side note, if you can afford it, subscribe to Culper's Forward Observer. It is only $99- a year.

Now the question is...What will Uncle Joe O'Biden going to do if Russia makes their move. I will hold my thoughts after most folks have an opportunity to comment.

[DMCakhunter]

Notice that this didn't spiral this way under Trump. The fix is in. Seems to be more of the same from when O Bama and Putin were caught on a hot mike about allowing Russia to annex part of Ukraine, just before they did it.
If it does happen again, the US will bluster, but not do anything until it gets out of hand and / or US troops are directly fired upon. But it will get out of hand, things can happen too fast with today's systems. And then, where does it stop? A plane or two, a ship or two, then a military base, then a city? Also including power grids, fuel depots and pipelines that may be impacted by all of the "foreign tourists" in the country you mentioned the other day. They will not be idle.

Not a good time to be an ally of the US while it is run by these idiots.

[grizz]

Notice that this didn't spiral this way under Trump. The fix is in. Seems to be more of the same from when O Bama and Putin were caught on a hot mike about allowing Russia to annex part of Ukraine, just before they did it.
If it does happen again, the US will bluster, but not do anything until it gets out of hand and / or US troops are directly fired upon. But it will get out of hand, things can happen too fast with today's systems. And then, where does it stop? A plane or two, a ship or two, then a military base, then a city? Also including power grids, fuel depots and pipelines that may be impacted by all of the "foreign tourists" in the country you mentioned the other day. They will not be idle.

Not a good time to be an ally of the US while it is run by these idiots.

Do we have any allies we can trust now?

[FeedingFreedom]

Do we have any allies we can trust now?

The question is can our allies trust us now? Would we do anything if Russia decided to just take the Ukraine, or half of Poland?

We can reasonably trust most of the former Soviet Bloc like Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, etc. They know what Communism and totalitarianism looks like, and aren't keen to go back. They'll fight. I had some interesting conversation with Czech generals after the Wall came down. They told me that they would never attack NATO or the US, if war broke out, they were going east as hard as they could, even if it meant destruction. Better that than continue under Soviet supervision.

[RB in GA]

Grizz, I'd argue that its not been a good time to be a US ally since Eisenhower left office (with the exception of Israel- and we've prevented them from dealing with their issues many times).  Not when the shtf.

Quick Roll call:
South Vietnam- abandoned, under Nixon.
Kurds: abandoned, twice- one under Bush Jr., once under Trump,
Georgia: abandoned, under Bush Jr.,
Ukraine: abandoned under Obama,
Afghanistan, yep, same- Biden

IMO, we fight, and have fought for the last 30 years where the Saudis send us. (Balkans, for Muslims and against Christians btw, Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Oh wait, we did fight a couple solely for ourselves, against Grenada and Panama....