Is Moldova The Arch Ferdinand Event for WW III

[JohnyMac]

Cobasna, Moldova is the home of one of the largest producers of ammunitions in the world. They produce in one day what US manufactures produce in a month.

Moldova is situated between Ukraine and Romania just northwest of Odessa along the Black Sea.

CHISINAU, Feb 22 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin revoked on Tuesday a 2012 decree that in part underpinned Moldova's sovereignty in resolving the future of the Transdniestria region - a Moscow-backed separatist region which borders Ukraine and where Russia keeps troops.

The decree, which included a Moldova component, outlined Russia's foreign policy 11 years ago which assumed Moscow's closer relations with the European Union and the United States.

The order revoking the 2012 document was published on the Kremlin's website and states that the decision was taken to "ensure the national interests of Russia in connection with the profound changes taking place in international relations". - Reuters

June 2022, US Army 101st Airborne division is sent to Europe.

CBS News joined the division's Deputy Commander, Brigadier General John Lubas, and Colonel Edwin Matthaidess, Commander of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, on a Black Hawk helicopter for the hour-long ride to the very edge of NATO territory - only around three miles from Romania's border with Ukraine. - CBS News

Questions: If Russia marches into Moldova to solidify its main center for ammunition production, what will the 101st do? What if the 101st were attacked - What would NATO do? Is this the planned Arch Ferdinand moment or keystone, to the kick-off of WW III? 

 

[RB in GA]

Approximately 1500 Russian troops were in the breakaway region of Tranistria prior to the invasion of the Ukraine.  The Ukranians had to keep a small military presence on that border to counter a possible threat to Odessa from that group.  I believe the Russian troops were never pulled out and are most likely the ones that would be used to stage a coup. There can be no "march on Moldavia" for Russia. They would only be able to airlift troops in- over Ukrainian or Romanian airspace- so that ain't happening.  Since Moldavia has essentially no troops, being one of the absolute poorest places in Europe, the gov't there would have to beg the EU for help- even though they are not a member state- to have any chance of defeating such a coup. NATO action is a non-starter, as Moldavia isn't a member. It boils down to whether the EU wants another "Kosovo" situation. (Also note there is a very real possibility of Kosovo going "hot" again- the Serbs are militarily posturing as well). US action might be unilateral, but I doubt it seriously. However, if the EU does react militarily, then I figure we'll be along for the ride. If that occurs, 1500 Russians in Moldovia arent going to be able to do squat to slow down the EU, with or without the US. (Serbia however, is a different ball of wax- I fully expect Wagner to be operating there in the immediate future, stirring up issues- be interesting to see what happens when they challenge EU peacekeepers in Kosovo). Regardless, I believe both Moldovia and Kosovo are just Russia's attempts to divert attention away from the Ukraine.  I don't think that will work out for them at all as we are more than capable of dealing with those sideshows and continuing to support the Ukraine. The Russians do not want a wider war with the west-they know they can not win.  What they want is for us to back off and let them rape the Ukraine -which is precisely why we shouldn't let them do it. Guys its far easier to spend cash and send surplus equipment on supporting the Ukraine than to spend lives if the Russians get what they want in the Ukraine and then figure lets try the Baltic States or Poland next.

[JohnyMac]

Great perspective RB. 

On the other hand...

Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin announced the transfer of additional forces to Europe, as "there may be difficult times ahead."

?The US has deployed or redeployed more than 20,000 additional personnel to Europe and redeployed the first permanent US forces on NATO?s eastern flank,? the Pentagon said in a statement.

According to Austin, this was done as a response to "the most urgent threat to the security of Europe since the end of World War II." - Teller Report

On the other hand RB, there are four groups that feel they need a war.

Group I
The Davos Group to kickoff their Great Reset. The Fabian Society Redux, I call them. In essence the Fabian's are the forefathers of the current Progressive group. 

Group II
EU Central Banks. The EU economy is on the ropes and "they" need a war to save the economy of the past 50-years of Socialism.

Group III
The USofA Neocons. The puppeteers of President Biden. A world war will help deliver their Build, Back, Better agenda which in essence is Group II's agenda.

Group IV
China. What a better time for China to act on their continued colonization of Asia and other parts of the world then during a war in Europe.

I am asking all that are following this thread to do the research on your own on how the economy of the time and the Fabian Society helped start WW I. The war to end all wars. The tinder was set by the Politian's and all that was needed was a spark.

My contention is, that we will hear a lot in the coming days about Moldova. Add Austin's announcement of sending in an additional 20,000 US troops to eastern Europe, 2023 will be the year that historians look back upon to opined on the beginning of WW III.  Stay tuned,

 

[RB in GA]

While I definately agree China would benefit from a wider war in Europe in the short term, I think points 2 and 3 are moot really- they are already benefiting from the current situation without the risk of annihilation inherit with a wider war.  Ditto Davos group- whatever agenda doesn't matter if your fertilizer or if you cant come out of your bunker for 20 years.

As for China's Imperial ambitions, I think a lot of people sell their neighbors short on the their ability to resist.  Just remember the last time China tried that, they had to retreat from Vietnam pretty damned fast. I dont see the Japanese rolling over, nor the Tiawanese, South Koreans or Philipinos, without a fight- and occupying those area would be a nightmare. A million or two million man army doesn't go far when you're occupying a hostile nation or two of 80 million.  It wont be like Afghanistan or Iraq was for us, with overwhelming firepower available and conmplete control of the skies and seas either- and we STILL didnt stamp out resistance in 20 years of trying (yeah I know it was lack of political will, but the insurgents would have never stopped fighting-look at the Kurds in Turkey or the Urghairs in China). China is far better off doing their belt and road, and trying to undercut the dollar as the world currency. 
As far as Moldavia goes, I think the best possible western response is to encourage the Ukrainians to mop up the Russians there. It could easily be spun as a "special military operation" to secure the Odessa region, which would have the added benefit of actually being true.

[JohnyMac]

Interesting comment RB, As far as Moldavia goes, I think the best possible western response is to encourage the Ukrainians to mop up the Russians there. It could easily be spun as a "special military operation" to secure the Odessa region, which would have the added benefit of actually being true.

Militarily, I agree. It would be the smart option. Maybe that is why 101st is 3-miles away from their border in Romania.

[JohnyMac]

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in Ukraine on Monday on a surprise visit to ?reaffirm U.S. support for Ukraine? and announce the first transfer of $1.25 billion from a $9.9 billion tranche of aid to Ukraine, according to Reuters. - Breitbart

I know that many of the UP readership believe the USofA & NATO should be sending aide to Ukraine, how much is enough?

China has warned the United States it will take ?counter-measures? after the Biden administration approved more than $1.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.

Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said Saturday China was ?firmly opposed? to the sales, which ?severely jeopardize China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,? and called on Washington to ?immediately revoke? them.

Liu?s comments on Twitter came after the Biden administration on Friday formally notified Congress of the proposed sales, which include up to 60 anti-ship missiles and up to 100 air-to-air missiles. - CNN

I wouldn't care and would consider Russia & China just saber rattling, however, I am very worried because of the current resident living in the White House.

"And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars" - Jesus, Matthew 24:3-6

[RB in GA]

Honestly in my opinion- we give whatever it takes.  Vladimir Putin is this generation's Adolph Hitler.  Yeah, the Ukraine isn't exactly Britain and Zelinski isn't exactly Churchill, but the point is exactly the same as it was back then. Isolationism doesn't work.  Appeasement doesn't work.
History proved both of those concepts invalid in WWII. Neither of course does being the world's policeman- but sometimes you draw a line in the sand and say "NO FURTHER".  Whenever you do that risk is involved. Yes, terrible ones, but those risks are the same to the Russians.

So M-1's? We built over 9000 of the things, we currently use 3500, so there should be a few lying about to spare. F-16's? Yep, shoulda been there a year ago, along with the A-10's the airforce so desperately wants to retire. Since the Army no longer wants Strikers and MRAPS at all - all of them too. Better they go the Ukraine than some local police department that shouldn't have them anyway.
 A great deal of the Army equipment destined for storage or demilling has to cycle through Anniston Army Depot to have that done, which takes a lot of time, effort and cash. (For example, every M60 and M48 that ended up as an artifical reef had to go through there-have the engine removed, all harmful chemicals and substances as well to meet EPA guidelines). So in short, we have it, it's costing us money just sitting there, so why not send it to the Ukraine where they desperately need it.

And no, I'm not glossing over the costs associated with bringing it up to spec- but that just means more jobs available to Americans to refurb those items.   Look at the Lima tank factory- they have increased their workforce nearly 10x because of the Ukrainian war, and the same to a lesser degree is occuring in artillery ammunition processing. 

Also, those news blurbs are misleading.  You have to read the actual documents to see what the "aid package" really is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj9HD8MdAFs