I Was Wrong - Economy

[JohnyMac]

Last month and a few other times I predicted that the DJIA would be south of 29,000 points by July. Well I was wrong. As of this writing we are at ~30,500 points (20% down from Jan 2022) and down from last week by ~600 points.

Now here are some odd ones. Gold has dropped back down into the the high $1,700's an ounce. Crude is at $103- a barrel and silver is in the high $19- an ounce. WOW!

I am going to reach out to some friends and try to figure out what is going on.

June unemployment numbers coming out later this week and CPI next week (July 13th). Second quarter GDP out last week of July. Stay tuned...

As a side note, traffic on the road and people in stores around us was down this year. On Sunday while MrsMac and I were checking out at the grocery store, the head cashier was walking up and down the registers asking tellers if they would like to go home early. Interesting.

Last, the 2nd quarter GDP will be out towards the end of July. The Atlanta Fed has estimated it will be negative 2.1%. If that is the case then we are in a recession. Recession = 2 negative GDP quarters back to back. Maybe we will now see that 25-30% correction from the high of Jan 2022 in the market as I have predicted by the end of July. The correction is inevitable.

  

[pkveazey]

The Economy is a complete con game. I look at the Stock market figures everyday and then check the Silver chart. There is no way in Hell that the numbers make any sense unless somebody(FED) is manipulating everything. On Friday, I saw the Spot price of Silver drop below $20 so I grabbed 2K and took off to town to run a couple of erronds and was going to buy more Silver. Shit!!!! The Coin Shop was closed for vacation and will stay closed until August. The Paper Silver and Gold price is being driven down as far as possible so the Big Banks can swoop in and buy all the Physical Silver and Gold that they can because they know exactly what is going to happen soon. I have actually considered ordering some Physical Silver on line from one of the reputable dealers but then I'd have to use my credit card and I don't want there to be any kind of paper trail about what I buy or how much of it I buy. I keep hearing about things going all wrong in 2023 but I don't believe it. I'm betting the farm that things will go bad before the first of the year. Everybody seems to be watching for what happens in November Elections. Hmmm.... I'm betting that the same thing happens this year that happened in 2008. Everything will go in the crapper 10 days before the election. When I saw that happen in 2008, that's the moment that I started Prepping.

[Felix]

One site monitored is "ZeroHedge"  Various authors from varying disciplines writing as "Tyler Durden".
Some interesting thoughts on what may be/is lurking beneath the surface, hiding just around the corner:

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,
The Great Taking: The Latest ?Anti-Mainstream? Conspiracy

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/control-system-collapsing-great-taking-looms-globalisms-last-gasp?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2111


"...The main difference that I see is Webb?s Great Taking is a deliberate conspiracy driven by successive generations of insular elites, whereas my concept of The Great Bifurcation is, as I always say, more the result of perverse incentives and dynamics than outright conspiracy."
 - The reality is probably elements of both - article author

"...That theme is that the next, worldwide conflict (?World War III?, in essence) will not be a geo-political struggle of the US vs China, or West vs East, or NATO vs China/Russia: it will be populations against their own governments."

[Nemo]

CNN says you may be right.

Nemo


https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/26/world/2023-year-of-the-brink-intl-cmd/index.html

It could have been immeasurably worse. But holding back from the brink in 2023 has simply deferred vast crises to 2024. The post-Covid world is exhausted, cash-strapped, but ultimately more fraught than for decades.

Overshadowing it all will be a flagging hyperpower, at best distracted with presidential elections, at worst tearing itself apart in voting disputes and political extremism.

The likelihood the United States will be occupied by its own traumas amplifies each risk. The geopolitical given of a US response will be absent, fuelling authoritarian ambition, or a radical upending of the global order. 2024 could make 2023 seem rational and sober.

Continued