How's Your 401K Retirement Doing Today?

[JohnyMac]

We are about 50-points away from breaking the 29,999 point glass basement. How is your 401K doing?

I would like to start a running poll here. How far will the market drop in the next 5-days?

Lets see...

> Putin declares war and will draft up to 300,000 Russians,
> The Fed rightfully raised interest rates by 75 Bpnts (Should have been a hundred but what do I know),
> The EU is going to introduce energy martial law on or around October 1, 2022,
> China on the cusp of invading Taiwan,
> Crude is down today buy experts warn of rising petrol and diesel prices starting in October,
> Our President wants y'all to pay more for the privilege's of using your air conditioners,
> $1T student loan forgiveness,
> What have I missed???

So where do you think the DJIA will rest at by the end of day Thursday 29th?

 

[Nemo]

My guess would be in the 29,250 area.  I suspect some of the fall off a cliff crash prevention programs will kick in to not let it go much more.

And some people betting to make sell short or buy and hold for recovery will slow things too.

Either way, 3Bs plus 2 is a good thing to start doing more than over the summer.

Nemo

note below, 20% Off on Winchester Ammo

limits on totals and calibers, all FMJ

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1z2JgSyXecbq-BKfyeML0HXeINpVfH-JQ/view

[Nemo]

Not to the area I was thinking yet.   Still about 275 points ($) high but it is only 13:21:22 and the market is open untill 1600.   Oil is easing too.  Seems economic crash would have less money chasing it so lower cost.

Nemo

https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?op=1

Dow Jones 30 IndustrialIndex , DJIA
29,525.07-551.61-1.83%
01:21:22 PM

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti

Oil (WTI)Commodity
78.92-4.56-5.46%
01:06:00 PM
NYMEX

[JohnyMac]

Well now, we hit 29,580 points on DJIA today.

Nemo is the only one playing. What do you think?

[DMCakhunter]

Not sure what will happen in a week, but the market needs to fall to:
Dow J - 28000
S&P - 3250
Nasdaq - 9100

I say this because the fluff of covid needs to be removed and these levels are approximately 1-1-2020 levels.

[Felix]

I think I quit watching the market and let my Merrill Lynch guy do his thing.   And of course, I'm approaching regret territory about now.
While I understand the numbers demonstrate that time _in_ the market averages better long term returns than trying to _time_ the market... the entire American/Global scenarios that have been playing out seem to say the exiting the market a couple of months ago would have been the better "play".
But what do I know???

[Nemo]

Close today DJIA.  Down 486.  Not much considering normal movement there.  But its down under 30K, and close to when biden was inaugurated.  So markets are back to his beginning.

Nemo

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Closed
Last Updated: Sep 23, 2022 5:04 p.m. EDT
29,590.41
-486.27 -1.62%

[Nemo]

And other things to think about.

Nemo

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

Dow Plunges 500 Points: Bear Market Returns As Goldman Warns Recession Would Hit Stocks Harder
Jonathan PoncianoForbes Staff
Sep 23, 2022,04:02pm EDT

Stocks closed at their lowest level in more than a year on Friday as a growing number of investment analysts released grim projections for markets and the economy this year, with some arguing major indexes will plunge deeper into negative territory as the Federal Reserve tees up a more aggressive policy to fight inflation.

Key Facts

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 486 points, or 1.6%, to 29,590 on Friday?eclipsing an 18-month low set in mid-June, as the Fed kicked off a series of the biggest interest rate hikes since 1998.

The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq similarly sank about 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively?each plunging deeper into bear market territory, as oil prices also sank on fears of an economic contraction, with the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate tanking 5% to an eight-month low of $78.

?The expected path of interest rates is now higher than we previously assumed,? Goldman Sachs analysts led by David Kostin wrote in a note Thursday night, blaming the stock declines on the Fed?s hawkish pivot this week and forecasting that more aggressive policy will push the S&P down another 3% this year?a dramatic shift from the 16% increase the team projected last month.

?The outlook is unusually murky,? the team continued, saying that the paths of inflation, economic growth, interest rates, earnings and valuations ?are all in flux more than usual? and that a majority of the investment bank?s investor clients now believe that a hard landing is ?inevitable.?

In the event the economy falls into a recession, Goldman projects the S&P to plunge another 10% to 3,400 points by the end of the year and 17% to 3,150 over the next six months?taking a full year to recover its losses.

Others are similarly bearish: Bank of America?s Savita Subramanian also projected the S&P would fall to 3,600 by the end of the year, saying that more volatility is likely and pointing out that stock declines during recessions with high inflation have amounted to about 11% in the past.
What To Watch For

Goldman economists project the Fed will hike rates by another 75 basis points in November, 50 basis points in December and 25 in February. If inflation continues to exceed expectations, those projections could ramp up?surely spelling more trouble for markets.
Key Background

The recent market sell-off intensified after the Labor Department reported inflation rose more sharply than expected in August, fueling concerns that Fed officials may need to act more aggressively in order to quell inflation. The S&P has plunged 23% this year, and the Nasdaq has cratered 31%. In a note to clients, Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said the Fed will likely keep interest rates elevated for longer in order to offset the inflation challenges that have lingered for more than a year??even if it requires more economic pain,? as officials have increasingly warned since last month.
Surprising Fact

According to Bank of America, fund managers are showing signs of extreme bearishness?piling up on cash at the highest level since 2001 and limiting exposure to stocks (at record low levels) as global economic growth expectations near an all-time low in light of central bank tightening efforts.

[pkveazey]

Whenever I hear the word 401K, it make3s me cringe. Its not for myself but for those other folks who have them. They are tied directly to the stock market and in today's world it might as well be like playing Roulette. You'll either win big or lose it all. With the stock market going absolutely nuts these days, I just can't force myself to go near it in any way. Even holding Cash is a slight bit risky because Hyper-Inflation can make it worthless. The Smart Money people are buying Things, Stuff, Commodities, Precious Metals, and Land. One thing I realized many years ago was if I lose all my money, it just doesn't vanish. It just goes into somebody else's pocket. Find out what the uber rich are doing and do what they do. Don't forget, the uber rich jump in first and win. Then the last person to jump in loses.

[JohnyMac]

A few things to ponder.

1) Q3 GDP will be released on October 27, 2022. The Fed is predicting as of yesterday, a +.3% number.
2) With the housing industry plummeting, I predict it will be more like -.5%.
3) More and more large retailers are warning investors of poor number for Q3.
4) Large retailers with high inventories are starting to drop prices on commodities ahead of Christmas. Interesting.
5) I am reading of more and more companies laying off large quantities of workers. I wrote about this happening here
    back in July of this year. I am starting to see those Help Wanted signs disappear from store and restaurant
    doors.

So, what do you think the DJIA will be at closing on September 29th, 2022?

My guess is, 29,800.
 

[Felix]

OK.  Regardless of how difficult it is to make predictions (especially when they are about the future), I will forecast a target for the market composites, where they are going, where they will "bottom out".

In the Shitter.

(Attach whatever numerical value you like)

[JohnyMac]

DJIA down 330-points today. Finished today at a new low of 29,261. Just took a peak at the futures and they are down too. Could turn around though by tomorrow.

[Nemo]

Some buying lower priced going on.

Nemo

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last Updated: Sep 27, 2022 at 11:19 a.m. EDT
29,447.36
+186.55 0.64%

[Nemo]

DJIA down 330-points today. Finished today at a new low of 29,261. Just took a peak at the futures and they are down too. Could turn around though by tomorrow.

I noted about 19,250 as my best guess.   Wern't too far off.  Gaining some ground now, see above.

Nemo

[Nemo]

And a look at close today.

Down 125 from yesterday close.

Nemo

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Closed
Last Updated: Sep 27, 2022 4:20 p.m. EDT
29,134.99
-125.82 -0.43%

[JohnyMac]

WOW!

[Nemo]

Would not surprise me to be bouncing around 30K or under 28K by the end of the week.

Nemo

[JohnyMac]

Now at 29,243 and up over a hundred points. Futures was down over a hundred points. Should be interesting to watch over the next couple of days with a hurricane hitting FL., Nord Stream I & II sabotaged, and troops being redeployed to bases that they could be easily be sent to the EU this week.

Stay tuned...

[JohnyMac]

I am standing firm around 29,800 points by close of business Thursday Sept 29th.  We will see.

[Nemo]

And today.  JM, betting about 525 too high.

Nemo

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/markets-closing-numbers-september-29-2022-rcna50083

S&P 500 closes at new 2022 low, as Apple helms broad market sell-off
A stronger-than-expected jobless claims report didn?t help sentiment. This built on the notion that the Fed will keep raising rates to fight inflation.
Sept. 29, 2022, 4:42 PM EDT
By Samantha Subin, CNBC

Stocks resumed their 2022 sell-off on Thursday, sending the S&P 500 to a new low for the year, as fears swirled that a recession won?t stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.

The sell-off was broad-based and was led by Apple, which tumbled as a major investment bank downgraded the one-time bear market outperformer. The stock closed down 4.9%.

The S&P 500 declined 2.1% to 3,640.47 in a new closing low for the year. During the session, it also fell to a new 2022 intraday low of 3,610.40. This is also its lowest intraday level since 2020.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 458.13 points, or 1.54%, to 29,225.61. (underline added) The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.84%.

The moves followed a broad rally for stocks Wednesday, as the Bank of England said it would purchase bonds in an effort to help steady its financial markets and the cratering British pound. Sterling has stooped to record lows against the U.S. dollar in recent days.

The Dow on Wednesday gained more than 500 points, or 1.9%, while the S&P 500 rose nearly 2%, both snapping six-day losing streaks.

″[We] remain skeptical that the calmer mood in markets on Wednesday marks an end to the recent period of elevated volatility or risk-off sentiment,? UBS? Mark Haefele wrote in a Thursday note. ?For a more sustained rally, investors will need to see convincing evidence that inflation is coming under control, allowing central banks to become less hawkish.?

[JohnyMac]

LOL, yupper Nemo. I really thought the Treasury dept would come in to save the day. Wana bet that the Treasuey did come in and if they didn't it would have been 1K points lower. 

[Nemo]

And so far today.  Close will be interesting.   Will there be a profit making rally?  Or is 28K a probability?

Nemo

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Open
Last Updated: Sep 30, 2022 at 1:19 p.m. EDT
29,090.34
-135.27 -0.46%

[JohnyMac]

Currently at 29,990. I am actually surprised that it broke through the basement glass ceiling of 29,000 and is hanging there. If I was playing the market, it would be a good time to pick up some good deals. 

[Nemo]

AAAaannnnddd the close!

Nemo

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Closed
Last Updated: Sep 30, 2022 4:20 p.m. EDT
28,725.51
-500.10 -1.71%

More details.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-rise-200-points-as-another-rough-quarter-concludes-11664532298