How do you know the S has HTF?

[Well-Prepared Witch]

One of the things I have never quite wrapped my head around is how to know when things are bad enough to shift our perspective to more of a survival/use our preps sort of mindset.  I mean, things can get pretty darn dire even without the world falling apart around you - people lose jobs, which puts their house at risk, floods/hurricanes/tornadoes happen and whole towns can be wiped out, etc.  I also think an economic crisis and/or severe depression is the most likely SHTF scenario for our times (not that there aren't several others that are likely, but IMHO that's the most probably at this time).  That sort of thing can creep up on you like a frog in a pot - gas prices go higher one day, the grocery store is out of your brand of bread, then all bread for a week at a time, you can afford to go to the movies, but going out to dinner gets to be unreachable financially, and it just keeps escalating.  Also, some other things you just get used to and live with the threat, such as terrorism (just ask the Israelis, whatever you think of them politically, their day to day life hangs under the shadow of terrorism and they keep on having a fairly "normal" society).

So at what point do you say, "gee, the shit has hit the fan, I'm going to start farming intensively and start carrying a weapon with me for safety's sake and turn away any DGIs* that may come a-knockin'?  Some points for me are:

• Mr. WPW's pay is disrupted (he works for a major Beltway bandit - can't use this as a measure for my pay since the small company for which I work is hitting the rocks and I haven't been paid AGAIN this week, but if a company as big as his starts having trouble paying people that seems like a huge red flag)
• Inability to obtain basic foodstuffs at the grocery store on a regular basis - I'm not talking my fancy jar of Parmesan cheese, but simple stuff like bread, milk, eggs, butter, etc. Your staples.  Also in this category would be prices inflating so high you can't afford to buy them.
• Inability to travel - Mr. WPW can't get to work because of civil unrest, martial law and/or environmental issues like a contaminated zone that lasts for more than a week, gas is so expensive he has to find a room near his job, etc.
• Significant population drop - this would be far more likely in a pandemic situation than in a depression, but if the population dropped between 20% and 30% you'd start to see huge disruptions in infrastructure.  If the population dropped lower than that it might get as bad as Mad Max, depending on how much.

What are your "triggers"?

* "Didn't Get It" a.k.a a non-prepper/zombie/sheeple

[crudos]

Great topic Wellie. For me, it's a constant battle to decipher propaganda from reality and trying to proceed accordingly. Lately, trying to separate fly shit from pepper has been really difficult. I can't say what my triggers are, but will know them when I see them, if that makes sense.

[Alex1992]

Well if I think hard enough, my trigger will have to be when I start to realize that life as I know it will not be the same. For the record it could depend on what type shit will hit the fan other than that I will know it when I see it. A very thought provoking topic though 

[sledge]

This is a terrific, thought provoking question that you ask in this topic WPW.  I'm surprised that more people haven't jumped into this one.

For the record, I carry a weapon on me at all times, so that to me isn't an indicator that the SHTF.

SHTF can come in many levels as mentioned.  It can be individual, regional, national, or planetary.  It can be caused by a natural or man made disaster, which would also include inappropriate actions by government.  It can also as you mentioned (an excellent example), come in the form of the frog in the pot syndrome.  Sneaking up on us slowly, giving the effect of  new normal with every downward change.  To me it is when your life is turned upside down to the point that society doesn't function for you as it did.

To me indicators that the shit has hit the fan are:

*Mass casualties from anything, be it disease, natural disaster or bullets flying.
*Mass architectural destruction form whatever reason.
*Riots for whatever reason.
*Shortage of food in stores for whatever reason.
*Money loses it's value.
*The military is called out to restore order.
*Anytime any level of government says that a curfew is mandatory.
*Registration or confiscation of firearms.
*When police are not able to enforce civil laws or have gone home in mass numbers.

Those are just my indicators from off the top of my head.  I'm sure that I'll think of others with more thought on the subject, which I plan to give it.  Thanks for bringing this topic up. 

[Well-Prepared Witch]

Crudos, "trying to separate fly shit from pepper" is my new favorite saying!

Sledge - great points, all! 

Alex - I find that "knowing life won't be the same" is a hard measuring stick.  While I kinda know what you mean - and that's what I'll likely end up using as a measuring stick, too - it's so vague.  That could be having a kid or moving to a new town, too. 

Darn it, why won't someone just get on the nightly news and say, "OK, guys, the shit has hit the fan. Proceed to your nearest Thunderdome or Hunger Games arena"?

[JohnyMac]

Wellie, as Crudos wrote earlier - Great subject!

I know that I have posted this in the past but worth posting again. My brother and I came up with this guide one night at deer camp with the snow coming down sidewise and socks were being used to plug the spaces around the door in the first cabin we had at the BOL. There were cigars and a nice Tawney port involved too if my memory is correct.

The guide probably needs to be revamped however the spirit of it is still there.

Level I
   Status Quo

Continue to monitor world events. Stock pile food, medicine, ammo, firearms, etc. Talk to your neighbors asking them if they are prepared. Pay off bills. Sell any large holdings. Buy precious metals if possible.

Level II
   Catastrophic Event equivalent to 911 on US soil or around the world, e.g. War / North Korea attacks South Korea, China invades Taiwan, earth quake, hurricane, etc.
   Peaceful protests in US
   Riots overseas in the EU
   Stock market ?tanking? in US and around the world 
   Some banks fail
   Inflation over 3% a year
   Small GDP growth
   High single digit unemployment rate

Begin to organize neighborhood to meet potential food, water, general supply shortages and discuss plans for looters. Stock your ?bug out? location and prepare to ?bug out.?

Level III
   Riots in the US as well as around the world
   Some of the US Bill of rights suspended (Free speech, Gun?s, Habeas Corpus, etc)
   Partial Martial law implemented; mostly in riotous city?s / locations around the US
   Stock market ?crashes? in US and around the world 
   Banks do not open, have limited operating hours or have restrictions put on them by the federal government, e.g. how much you
        can take from your account
   Communication via normal sources still open, e.g. internet, land line, some cellular, etc.
   Double digit inflation above 14%
   Official, unemployment rate double digit or unofficial unemployment / under employment of 25% or higher
   One quarter of negative GDP growth.

Decide whether to stay and support the neighborhood or head for your ?bug out? location in the hills. If you don?t retreat continue to stock food, supplies, ammo, firearms, etc. for the neighborhood / ?bug out? location while supplies last.

Level IV
   Complete martial law across US
   Across the US all 27 amendments of the Bill of Rights suspended
   Local and national elections suspended
   Wide spread looting is happening
   Communication sporadic and not private
   Out of control inflation
   Double digit inflation above 20%
   Official, unemployment 25% or higher
   Two quarters of negative GDP growth.
   Leave for your ?bug out? location if possible.

Level V
   Without Rule Of Law

No chance to relocate to your ?bug out? location. No communication is possible.

[Colombo]

I am of the opinion it has already hit it. The time dilation caused by Q.E. has made observation difficult for many however.

My personal indicators of when to button up the compound are the day I stop to get a pizza and a redbox rental and the pizza place is closed or being looted and the redbox has been emptied by non paying customers. 

Cheap plentiful on demand delicious pizza is my personal measure of civilization. I fear we may have reached and exceeded peak pizza.

[crudos]

 

Good thing our pizza preps are well-stocked! 

[sledge]

I am of the opinion it has already hit it. The time dilation caused by Q.E. has made observation difficult for many however.

My personal indicators of when to button up the compound are the day I stop to get a pizza and a redbox rental and the pizza place is closed or being looted and the redbox has been emptied by non paying customers. 

Cheap plentiful on demand delicious pizza is my personal measure of civilization. I fear we may have reached and exceeded peak pizza.

LOL!  Yes, I read about the peak pizza conspiracy theory before.  It sent chills down the back of my neck.  All of that talk about the world only having a fixed supply of pizza, and that some producers were overestimating how much was still available kept me up a nights.  And then there were the rumors that the Russians had developed a way to get embryonic pizza through deep meading of the dough which meant for them the supply would never run out.

Yep, every country in the world is maneuvering and posturing to gain access to any geographic sites that have a potential for pizza production.
Up front in the pack of those countries is China, there are a lot of pizza eating mouths over there.

One wonders how it will all end.  As pizza shortages become the norm, there will no doubt be wars fought for what pizza is still available.

Edit:  Note:  The use of the term embryonic pizza should not hasten the return of "Fat Bastard" to the forum. 

[Well-Prepared Witch]

I wondered why mozzarella was so expensive the other day! Time to get a water buffalo so I can make my own!