This from an e-mail I received from SG Ammo, I do buy a good amount from them. Not affiliated with them.
This a good perspective of what is happening.
Thank you for subscribing to the SGAmmo.com newsletter. If you have trouble viewing this email you can see the newsletter at this link: Bulk Ammo In Stock With Free Shipping and My Russian Ammo Sanction Opinion
There has been a lot of people asking me about the sanctions on Russian ammo imports put in place by the US state department this past week and what it means for the future of ammunition supplies. There will be more clarity in several weeks when we can see the publication of a Federal Register notice expected on September 7, 2021. The state department announcement can be seen at this page -
https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-united-states-imposes-additional-costs-on-russia-for-the-poisoning-of-aleksey-navalny/My Russian Ammo Sanction Opinion - First, I hope you don't 'shoot the messenger' and I'd like to pat everyone on the back and tell them things are going to be okay but that wouldn't be truthful. In my opinion the sanctions are a major game-changer in the ammunition supply chain that is already strained. For the time being and based on what we can see so far, we believe that this will be the effective end of Russian made ammo in the USA as it plays out over the next year or so as import permits expire or are filled to the quantity limits, and in doing so eliminate supply of a huge portion of the ammo in the US commercial market. From what I understand, the USA commercial market consumes around 800,000,000 rounds of ammunition from Russia every year, roughly 800 semi truck trailers worth in a mix of the most popular calibers. For the immediate short term we expect ammo to keep coming in from Russia but I expect the importers to raise prices substantially which is understandable to me given its the end of the lifespan for their business model. The calibers we believe will be most effected are soviet metric calibers like 7.62x39, 5.45x39, and 7.62x54R because there is almost zero available manufacturing capacity for these calibers outside of Russia and what little exists will not make a significant impact in filling the needs of the USA commercial market without Russian ammo absorbing the lion's share. In addition to these calibers, I estimate that the Russians supplied 30% to 40% of the 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger consumed at the shooting ranges across this country, and large portions of the 45 auto, 9x18 Makarov, 30 carbine, 308 Winchester / 762x51, 380 Auto, 300 Blackout and 6.5 Grendel. I see this as a potentially devastating blow to the supply for of 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger, where the reduction in supply from Russia will be difficult to make up in the short term for other manufacturers who have already been unable to keep up with demand this past year. Consumers who have used Russian ammo regularly will have to move on from Russian made ammo to those other products made elsewhere and in doing so absorb the supply and prolong recent shortages. Again this is my opinion, based on my knowledge of the industry after 20+ years experience, and how things play out over time could be different. For me, selling Russian made ammo is about 40% of my business, and while we plan to source as much supply as we can from other sources, we do expect this to have a major negative impact on supply for 7.62x39, 7.62x54R, 5.45x39, 9mm Makarov, 9mm Luger, 223 Rem / 5.56 NATO, as well as the other mentioned calibers.
Free Shipping Promo - For the rest of August we will be offering free shipping on orders with $200 or more of merchandise, and a $12 flat rate for orders under $200. To get to the free shipping threshold of $200 you can mix and match different items until the order subtotal reaches $200 or more, or purchase any item over $200. This is a temporary promo through the end of this month as we test the waters of offering free shipping. Depending on how it goes we may continue to extend this offer or make it permanent but for now the offer is only for set for the rest of this month. Below is a list of products that have been popular recently. It has been 17 months straight of the highest demand levels for ammunition ever seen, exhausting supplies of many popular calibers and driving prices up. Many things that were once normal have changed in this time including price and availability of ammunition. All things considered I think we have some decent deals on some calibers at this time. If this newsletter does not promote calibers or types of ammo that you use then future newsletters will as supply allows. We recommend that you stay subscribed even if this product list does not meet your needs, as other products will come in time. We thank you for your support of our family owned and operated business and will do our best to serve our clients well in these strange times, so please stay subscribed for future SGAmmo newsletters. If you have some spare time please take a few minutes and look over the online catalog at
www.SGAmmo.comThank you, Sam Gabbert, SGAmmo Owner
