INFLATION

[pkveazey]

I've been telling people that massive inflation is coming and they seem to have a tube from one ear straight out the other ear. Even my wife really hasn't thought much about inflation because I buy most of the things we get. Inflation is really starting to become noticeable now. I went to the store yesterday and decided to grab an extra can of Corned Beef Hash. It used to be about $1 but now it is $3. Tonight I asked the wife if she wanted me to run down to WENDY's and get her a Cheesburger and she said yes. I drive 2 miles down to the Wendy's and order a SINGLE CHEESBURGER with only mustard and a small FRENCH FRY. It was $8.50. I noticed the price was a bit high but I've been noticing it for quite some time now. When I got home, I told the wife, "Here's you $8.50 Cheeseburger and small fries". She was super surprised that something we used to buy at Wendy's for $1 was now stupid expensive. The way I see this inflation thing is that we have just gone over the cliff and now we'll just rapidly pick up more speed as we go into hyperinflation. I'm pretty much of a tightwad but since I knew this BS was coming, I made up my mind to, "Buy whatever I need now because its only going to be more expensive later on."

[JohnyMac]

Well said PKv.

Yesterday found MrsMac and I at the grocery store. We had one of those half shopping carts and when we checked out our total bill was $148-. That is ridiculous!

Now our three paper bags of groceries contained no protein as we have three freezers full. No cold cuts as we try to stay away from processed meats. Nothing extravagant at all. The same crap we buy once a week every week.

Looking back to let's say 2020, the same crap would have cost us $70 to $80-. Add to that list two-years ago, there would have been protein in that final bill. 

To add to my inflation wows, the store had not been replenished with flour. They had NO yeast. Some basic things MrsMac was looking for like plastic bowls she uses to feed the outside cats, empty shelves. Cans of Hunts pasta sauce was on sale, and the shelves were empty. All pasta was picked over and looked like a Jack-O-lanterns teeth. Even wide egg noodles was picked over and only the expensive, now 12-oz brands remained. Bye the way, when has egg noodles gone from 16-Oz to 12-Oz?

To your point PKv, I looked at the Spam and corn beef shelves and the shelves were half empty and if my memory serves me correctly, Spam was $4.09 each.

And to your point, PKv, this is just the beginning, "The way I see this inflation thing is that we have just gone over the cliff and now we'll just rapidly pick up more speed as we go into hyperinflation."

Now add to PKv and my rant, fuel prices will rise which will cause folks to decide should they be warm, buy needed medicine, or have a full belly.

My heart today goes out to seniors on fixed incomes.

Thank you President Poopy Pants. FJB!

[Felix]

Can' be happy while owning nothing if/while you are still, somehow, able to cling to middle class status.

[RB in GA]

As one of those seniors now on a fixed income I've seen my purchasing power plummet over the past 2 years.  I find myself pretty much sticking to BOGOs at the grocery store, when I can find them, plus such other things as needed.  Damned glad I've been "prepping" for 45 years.
Historically, middle class has been defined as the bottom 20% of income. I'm sure if too many of us drop to lower class .gov will just change the definition.

[pkveazey]

At the moment, this inflation is noticeable and annoying. I think the next stage will be painful. Then it will get to be unbareable. By the way, what is all this talk by the economist about the recession lasting about 2 years. I think they are nuts. This is not going to be cleaning up the SHTF, this is going to be, "We need a new fan." I see a new system coming and I don't like it unless its backed by pressious metals.

[grizz]

I get 99% of my proteins from the land, veggies from a garden. Since gas is so damn high now, thats taking up everything I'm saving on groceries.

Yep the great rest is here and its happening in such a way that the majority of people just ignore it, until it comes to their front door at which time it'll be too late to do much of anything. This is how the Germans got the Jews prior to WWII

LETS GO BRANDON

[JohnyMac]

Okay. I buy a triaxle of firewood logs every spring. I usually get 9 to 10-cords out of a tri axle load.

This spring my triaxle load was $725- up from last spring $650- I think.

My neighbor and I figured we should pick up another triaxle each to beat next years price hike. Well the cost now is, $775-*.

I have another source for a triaxle of firewood logs and called him today. His price was $900-. I questioned his price and boy did I get an ear full. LOL. His points in short were...

> His price for diesel was $5.29 WHEN HE CAN GET IT. He buys straight from a distributer and has to call 2 to 3
   days ahead to see if the distributer has any in tanks that are not spoken for.
> His insurance went up 50%. He has no idea why and his insurance company says, "he is in a dangerous line of
   work".
> If he can find it, hydraulic fluid and oil has gone up about 50% too, if he can find it. He owns dozer equipment
   plus three log trucks.

His fuel distributer told him that all fuel prices will rise by the end of October, beginning of November
to June levels.

Last, he told me that his spring price for a triaxle of firewood will be north of $1,100- a load. WHAT?

* The first firewood supplier ($775-) told my neighbor that fuel prices will be back to June heights by week 1, November, 2022. 

[Nemo]

And that will likely do good things for the elections if it starts in the next 2 weeks.  Talk about an October surprise for Ds.

Nemo

[Felix]

Continued forest thinning around me has presented a rather unique opportunity.   The small diameter Ponderosa pine logs harvested are low value and several operators have undertaken sales trying to make a profit. Failing at the money end, they leave, some slash piles and some decks of low value/diameter simply abandoned.
So, the FS is handing out "wood cutting permits" like candy and waiving the off road driving restrictions in effort to get folks out on those piles.
I'll be bringing some home (one site less than mile from home) probably net month after I get dog biz wrapped up and before the snow starts.  Not that burning pine is the greatest - but hey -  some extra labor and stovepipe attention will be unavoidable if "imported" juniper and oak become prohibitive due to fuel prices or out-and-out failure of fuel supplies...

[Nemo]

The high rates to try to control it will be around a while, insinuating the cause (inflation) will be here a while too.

Nemo

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/feds-brainard-warns-restrictive-interest-rates-needed-some-time

Economy
Published September 30, 2022 2:55pm EDT
Fed's Brainard warns restrictive interest rates may be needed 'for some time'
Additional 'inflationary shocks' cannot be ruled out, Fed vice chair says

By Megan Henney FOXBusiness
August Core PCE comes in hotter than expected

Core PCE price index comes in hotter than expected as inflation continues to rage in U.S.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Friday stressed the need to combat scorching-hot inflation with higher interest rates and pledged the central bank will not prematurely pull back on tighter monetary policy.

In a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Brainard emphasized that officials will proceed both "deliberately and in a data-dependent manner" when forging monetary policy amid growing concerns about a global recession. 

"Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to have confidence that inflation is moving back to target," she said. "For these reasons, we are committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely."

The U.S. central bank has embarked on one of the fastest courses in history to raise borrowing costs and slow the economy.

Lael Brainard, governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, during the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) annual meeting in Arlington, Va., Mon., Sept. 27, 2021. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Officials last week approved a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike, lifting the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0% to 3.25% ? near restrictive levels ? and indicated that more super-sized increases are coming. One basis point is one hundredth of one percent.

There is a growing expectation on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve will trigger an economic downturn as it raises interest rates at the fastest pace in three decades to catch up with runaway inflation.

Economic growth already contracted in the first two quarters of the year, with gross domestic product ? the broadest measure of goods and services produced in a nation ? contracting by 1.6% in the winter and 0.6% in the spring.

Fed chair Jerome Powell has all but conceded the central bank will tip the economy into a recession with its rapid rate hikes, warning that higher rates will cause economic "pain."

"The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish to the extent that policy needs to be more restrictive or restrictive for longer," Powell told reporters in Washington. "Nonetheless, we?re committed to getting inflation back down to 2%. We think a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain."

But Brainard warned against complacency in the Fed's fight against inflation.

"Inflation is very high in the United States and abroad, and the risk of additional inflationary shocks cannot be ruled out," she said.

New government data released Friday showed that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, accelerated more than expected in August, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong.

The PCE index showed core prices, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.6% from the previous month and rose 4.9% on an annual basis, according to the Commerce Department.

[JohnyMac]

Our current economy is on President Biden. The second he closed down crude pipelines, restricted drilling through EPA regulations, the nail was lost. Fossil fuels of all varieties powers our nation. This is clearly a planned USofA economic takedown to usher in the Build, Back, Better agenda.

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Old Proverb

[Nemo]

Don't worry, come January you can get a free ride to the camp where the govt will take good care of you.   And you will hate horse shoe nails for not getting lost long ago so you could live in the camp, own nothing, and be happy, much longer.

Nemo

[Nemo]

Well guess what!

Fed increased things another 3/4% today. And commented they are nowhere near done.

DJIA closed down 506 at 32,147.

Nemo